FRAUD ALERT - AP "race tightening" Total Bull shit

[autorank]

AOL carried an AP Story that the "election is tightening"



It claimed:

"The poll, which found Obama at 44 percent and McCain at 43 percent, supports what some Republicans and Democrats privately have said in recent days: that the race narrowed after the third debate as GOP-leaning voters drifted home to their party and McCain's "Joe the plumber" analogy struck a chord."

Oh really.

Obama won the post debate III polls two to one, just like the first two debates, even though the network shills tried to make it sound even.

Every pollster out there is showing consistent Obama leads. And the independent analysts who project based on all the polls find Obama winning easily.

Grantcart just posted this thread showing that the leading analyst says Obama will win huge.win huge.

Here's the deal. AP is probably setting it up so that when McCain wins one of thise last minute squatters, it will seem plausible. AP is the main member of the Network Consortium that runs the exit polls.

They are front ending the story on "tightening" regardless of what all other polls say Then they'll be largely in charge of the exit poll (they pay for it along with NBC, ABC, CBS, FOX, and CNN). Here's how the exits were manipulated in 2004 http://www.scoop.co.nz/stories/HL0706/S00165.htm

IT'S A LIE. NO MORE BULL SHIT FROM THESE PEOPLE

[magbana]

1. You hit the nail on the head. I noticed the announcement as well . . .

about the AP poll showing a tightening up of the race. I think we will see a few more polls mysteriously "tightening up" before election day because the Repubs have no choice but to steal the race.

[autorank]

13. We are nothing to them. They show total contempt for us and our ability simply reason

I was just appalled and this isn't my first trip to the rodeo. The leads are so consistent, the poll aggregators are so unanimous (conservative & liberal) and AP has the arrogance to try to pull this scam.

They're up to something, we know, and they're going hear loud and clear that we know that they know.

[BuyingThyme]

2. I think we need polls like that to get our vote out.

Especially when our vote is much larger than theirs.

[autorank]

14. That's the only positive by product

The turnout will be huge. It is already as we're seeing in early voting.

The polling isn't catching this and it's the insurance policy.

http://usacoup.scoop.co.nz/?p=722

Turnout will exceed 70% in a lot of places. The problem with stealing that type of election is
they have to put the votes somewhere and there are not enough places:

"The only fraud strategies available are through electronic voting machines and outright changes in vote totals. Thus, with fewer tools (disenfranchisement and suppression are out for this group); election fraud would need to wipe out 14% of the estimated vote.

'That’s to obvious and that’s why the "net new" voters from the Democratic primaries in these four key swing states, the mid and southeastern Atlantic states, and any other state fitting this 2008 primary voting pattern represent the best assurance against election fraud available.

"Internet researcher anaxarchos made the point in blunt terms in a communication to the author:

"It is not enough to steal votes. You need a place to stuff them. You can sell cocaine but in the end you have to explain how your Starbucks franchise brings in $80 million per year. There will be widespread fraud and caging and suppression but, as of today, I see no possible place to stuff it. It was hard enough in 2004 and that was 'close'."

http://usacoup.scoop.co.nz/?p=722

[renie408]

3. All the 'tightening' talk seems weird when Obama's RCP margin goes up every day.

It is back up around 7.1% It had fallen down into the 5's, but has steadily moved up over the past three or four days.

[autorank]

15. It's significant because it's the Associated Press

They are the matrix of information about election polling, producing the national totals through their feeds from the states. They think that they can do their total information awareness b.s. this time and they can't. This may be their Waterloo.

But you are totally on target about the rolling averages/margins.

[HCE SuiGeneris]

4. Recommended. Here is one explanation I copied from

somewhere :shrug: ( I forgot the link to the comments page).

If you link to the actual AP poll results you will see why this poll has the race so close. First, in the actual text of the article is this:Among all 1,101 adults interviewed, the survey showed Obama ahead 47 percent to 37 percent. He was up by five points among registered voters. That should make you wonder how their likely voter spread is only 1%.

But when you analyze their breakdown of who they asked, you find a clear bias toward white conservative (39% vs. 23% liberals polled) voters aged 30-49 (38% vs. 22% for 50-64 yrs and 17% for 65 and over) who live in rural areas (36%) and suburban areas (38%) compared to only 24% who live in urban areas. Even the regional breakdown is biased with 36% coming from the south, 23% from the west, 22% from the midwest, and only 19% from the northeast. Even the breakdown of Evangelical Christian (45%) vs. non-Evangelical (52%) is much higher than the national average.

So should we be surprised that rural and suburban white Evangelical Christians from the south are choosing Obama by one point more than McCain? All of these demographics that heavily favor McCain should give McCain higher poll numbers. Polls don't lie, but how they sample who their likely voter group will be can greatly skew the real findings that even in their own AP poll Obama is up by 10 points among all those polled. Does the AP think we are stupid?

[ElboRuum]

7. It's all about the marketecture alignments in a Permian Flux.

I too could call the race close if I rigged the sample and gave myself a +/-25% margin of error.

Some people massage the numbers. The AP gives them a happy ending.

[BrklynLiberal]

5. Poll fraud precedes election Fraud. AND AP has been discredited in so many areas why would we want

to put any credence in their poll??
They are at odds with virtually every other poll out there...

[autorank]

16. No credence to their poll. Credence to their motivation

They know about all the other polls, they cover them. They know about the rolling averages and the state polls.

The credence is the fact that this organization put out something so misleading with out hesitation.

Why? To look stupid. Not their motive. It is, imho, to seed a final outcome that's "too close to call" which then legitimizes a questionable outcome.

The conclusion above comes from the reaction you and I share, there's no credence to be given to this poll. They don't care what we think, it's the foundation that they're laying.

[BrklynLiberal]

22. Exactly!!!

[uponit7771]

6. AP Poll also contradicted itself in the same article, said Obama was up by 10 amoungs LV's!!

This didn't make any sense but the sloppy ass'd media picked it up again.

[autorank]

29. Nice one;)

The poll was conducted the 17th to the 20th. 
http://pollingreport.com/wh08gen.htm 

NBC WSJ 10/20  Obama 52  McCain 42 + 10
Ipsos/McClat.  Obama 50  McCain 42 +  8 

and then this 44-43 from German based GfK.

Then on the 21st

Fox/OpnDynam.  Obama 49  McCain 40 +  9
CBS/NYT Poll-  Obama 52  McCain 39 + 13

These euro-pollsters are an outlier so why give them the press
TODAY?

[smoogatz]

8. It's a bullshit poll.

45% of their sample were self-identified evangelicals. It's clearly designed to reinforce the "tightening" narrative. The good news is that no "confirming" polls have appeared yet; in fact most that take the Powell endorsement into account show a widening spread, if anything. I think this AP poll will quickly be tossed as an obviously biased outlier. This does call AP's credibility even more into question--but we knew that when they made Fournier their senior election guy and got rid of their rules about editorializing in their news-writing.

[autorank]

17. Bull shit poll, first rate propaganda. That's the goal

[EFerrari]

9. It was on the Yahoo! front page, too.

I guess we know where to look for the unfolding narrative, don't we?

[No Elephants]

10. The Fournier Factor taints AP yet again.

[autorank]

18. No that's sophisticated;)!!

[StopTheNeoCons]

11. Obama at 44 percent and McCain at 43 percent, ARE THE BASES FOR EACH

when you factor in the Independents, it balloons Obama

[Hubert Flottz]

12. MSNBC Market Watch is reporting the race is "getting tighter"...

Explained that THAT was what caused the "big boom in the market" today. Up about 170 points today but was down about 500 yesterday. These hacks are bad mouthing Obama 24/7...

[autorank]

20. There are too many people who know this b.s. plus 50% plus don't believe 2004 - Zogby

Zogby - Voters Question Outcome Of '04 Election Sept. 25, 2006


Level of confidence that the 2004 Presidential
Election result was "fair and square" - by region.
Zogby Poll 1018 Registered Voters

[Hubert Flottz]

35. The ones in the "Rural" areas still don't have "City Water" so it...

looks like they mainly subsist on the BUSHit flavored Fool-Aid.

[Two Sheds]

19. Do any of these stories mention the internals of the poll...

the significant exaggeration of GOP sampling, the wildly out-of-control exaggeration of self-ID'd Evangelical sampling? If they don't make any mention, even a trivial one, they're in on the fix.

[autorank]

23. No internals in the article. They're out there and we'll find them.

Sometimes you have to email the polling company.

AP doesn't do its own polls. They hire a firm which then becomes the "back room" for the sponsor.

That's going to be important to understand more.

AP has out sized influence due to its reach, although that's less by the year.

Here's a look at internals, actual raw data, from 2004. It shows the lengths that AP and the
other Network Consortium members went to justify the Bush win. They invented 4.0 million white
ghosts in the cities over 500,000 who just rushed out to vote for Bush and they invented a 66%
turnout increase for what they call "big cities" - 500,000> population. But when you look at what
really happened, the increase in big city turnout was more like 12%-15%. They've never bothered
to correct or explain that factual error. Without the big city vote increase padding the Bush
vote count, there could not have been a Bush victory just on the basis of that poll.

We're seeing the arrogance of media power exercised to generate a false reality which, in turn,
would explain a McCain "victory."

Who would have thought?

Who would have thought that the margin for the Bush victory would come from cities, particularly America’s largest cities, those with over 500 thousand people? In truth, it did because “it had to”. The red base, rural America, could not match its relative performance in 2000 relative to a 19% increase in the total vote. In fact, the base receded. Small towns showed major increases in turnout but that benefited Kerry; surprisingly, he broke even there. The suburbs were slightly improved but Bush turnout was not spectacular. The smaller cities, population 50 to 500 thousand, had only a 9% increase in turnout over 2000.

But voters were hitting the streets of the big cities, with a 66% increase in turnout. That meant only one thing as preliminary exit poll data was reviewed throughout Election Day: the end of the road for G.W. Bush.

According to the Exits Polls, something was happening in the big cities and it was happening in a big city way. For every 100 voters returning from 2000 there were 66 new voters showing up at polls to vote. Without any doubt, these voters were the most motivated block segment compared to a 9% increase in the smaller cities, a 19% in the suburbs and a decrease in rural turnout of 17%. Only the small towns, a much smaller segment, had close to this level of turnout. http://www.scoop.co.nz/stories/HL0706/S00165.htm

[autorank]

27. Internals - top pdf on this page

It's a German polling firm around since 1934.

http://www.ap-gfkpoll.com/

[ihavenobias]

21. K & R, this is scary

Very scary.

We need to spread this informatino.

[autorank]

24. That's the key. Get in their faces on this and the fictional "voter fraud" menace

[IsItJustMe]

25. So is AP helping McCain fix the election? Sure makes me wonder what they are up to. No good I

suspect.

[crossroads]

26. Thanks for the heads up! k&r

[Me.]

28. Glad To See You Still On It

12 more days

[autorank]

30. Breaking - AP Seeds Fixed Election with Old Poll;)

How about a headline assist here.

Can you believe this 'tragical - farsical' disinformation?

*"'Old' doesn't work. ??Bogus * Sketchy * 'Cracked Out'"
:shrug:

[Me.]

34. Fournier Running AP Now

Wonder if he'll still have a job when this is over.

AP is P'wned

AP = Asininely Political

AP = Aspiring Phelons

[Arkana]

31. That poll has been whored so much its orifices are gaping to the point

where you could drive a truck into them.

Fuck the AP, fuck that poll, and fuck the Wright Brothers.

[autorank]

32. "A small crowed showed up at Alumni Hall for the men's baskedball opener."

Would anyone in your part of the country believe that sentence, ever!

This headline has the same truth value.

(What did the Wright Brothers do?;)

[Arkana]

33. I can't imagine the Dunk not being packed for any reason involving

basketball.