Marc Ambinder: AP/GFK Poll a fraud?

[Coexist]

http://marcambinder.theatlantic.com/archives/2008/10/the_apgfk_poll_evangelical_sur.php



Curious...

44% of the likely voter sample in the AP/GFK-Roper poll -- Matt Drudge's "shocker" of the day, which has Obama up by one -- are self-identified evangelicals. That's about double the weighted average that pollsters generally assume.

[Coexist]

1. .

[TexasObserver]

2. Rollins has admitted the guy who did the poll is "McCain's polling guy"

I heard him say it on CNN (I think it was) in the past hour.

The poll and the entire AP column promoting are 100% written and planted by the McCain campaign. It is the most ridiculous PR piece you've ever read. It reads like one of those ridiculous PR releases the McCain campaign does.

[Overseas]

5. I was just thinking 44% evangelical-- depends on the pool they polled.

Now it makes sense.

Although it doesn't if you really open up to the socialism of Jesus Christ.

[TexasObserver]

11. Jesus is the most famous socialist the world has produced.

Irony.

[WeDidIt]

3. Now THERE'S a telling internal

It's as outlier as an outLIAR can be.

[iceman66]

7. And yet Obama still came out ahead!

[Proud Liberal Dem]

12. It must SUCK to be McCain right now

He can't even win in a horribly SKEWED poll. How much worse can it get????:rofl: :rofl: :rofl: :rofl: :rofl: :rofl: :rofl: :rofl: :rofl: :rofl: :rofl: :rofl: :rofl: :rofl: :rofl: :rofl: :rofl: :rofl: :rofl: :rofl: :rofl: :rofl: :rofl: :rofl: :rofl: :rofl: :rofl: :rofl: :rofl: :rofl: :rofl: :rofl: :rofl: :rofl: :rofl: :rofl: :rofl: :rofl: :rofl: :rofl: :rofl: :rofl: :rofl: :rofl: :rofl: :rofl: :rofl: :rofl: :rofl: :rofl: :rofl: :rofl: :rofl: :rofl: :rofl:

[Marsala]

21. It really says something that Obama leads EVERY poll

With the amount of polls out there right now, the odds are very high that one crazy outlier should pop up and show McCain with a (tiny) lead. But even this hideously skewed poll shows Obama still ahead. In 2000 and 2004 there were polls showing both sides ahead. Not this year.

[anonymous171]

4. The media wants a horserace so bad it's hilarious.

[Proud Liberal Dem]

13. Everytime they say something about the race "tightening"

Another poll comes out saying that it is actually WIDENING!!!!!! WTF????

[ShadowLiberal]

23. Yeah, I find it hilarious how radically they're willing to shift their narrative day to day

On one evening news show they said yesterday Obama had expanded his lead to 10% according to the NBC/WSJ poll. Then today they say "McCain is closing the gap! Obama is up by only 1%". Does anyone really believe that someone can close a 10% gap and be down by just 1% in a day? (especially when that person didn't make any serious gaffes in the last few days).

[stevenleser]

6. There are only two polls showing a close race, both have skewed respondant percentages

There is the one you pointed out and there is the GW Battleground poll which has only 4% fewer Republicans than Democrats in its sample where most polls reflect the current registered margin of around 11%.

[jefferson_dem]

8. What the friggin' fuck has happened to the AP?

The nation's first "wire service" has wallowed into the land of pure hackery. Shame shame!

[progressivebydesign]

16. Remember the slash job they did on Gore's candidacy? They were relentless...

it got so bad that many Dem blogs declared "WRite Like Nedra Pickler Day", in honor of her backhanded style of writing about Gore, and then Kerry, against Bush.

[FreeState]

9. 2000 and 2004 only 23% were evangelical according to PEW

http://people-press.org/commentary/?analysisid=103

[BlooInBloo]

10. The 538 mathematician challenged them - put up or fucking SHUT UP AP!

[BzaDem]

14. HAHAHAHA

[progressivebydesign]

15. Thank you!! I've been shouting this all day. There was something wrong with their "likelies"!!

Buried deep in the original article, Obama came out ahead by 10 points amongst 1,101 polled, then they dumped it down to THEIR idea of "likely" without giving any methodology of how they determined that. Now we see that it was bogus - and over sampling of evangelicals.

Frankly, the research I did on Gfk was very strange... lots of firms being eaten up by other firms, and Gfk is actually an AUTO industry polling firm, mostly, and they do something called "unculturated hispanic polls" WTF is that? The AP poll was the ONLY political poll I saw in any of their works. They're related to Roper, and NOP World Health, somehow.

[Blondiegrrl]

26. Yeah, I noticed the huge disparity between likely voters and actual voters.

Funny how it was buried so deeply within the story.

[progressivebydesign]

17. Please K&R friends, because that damn poll has been burning up DU all day and on the internets. n/t

[progressivebydesign]

18. After all of the twitterpating here on DU today over that AP poll, why is this sinking?? n/t

[Nevernose]

19. Here's another article:

It was linked to from Huffington:
http://www.americablog.com/2008/10/new-flawed-ap-poll-claims-mccain-and.html

[Coexist]

27. thanks.

[Abacus]

20. Weird that he still wins 47-37 among total respondents with those numbers

[Connie_Corleone]

22. Don't forget to Recommend.

kick

[TexasObserver]

24. K&R

[texasleo]

25. K&R

[Lifelong Protester]

28. K & R and now I'm going to bed

this has been bugging me all night and I finally found this thread so now I can lay my head down on the pillow. Jeez -o-pete, I have never been so sick of the damn media and their "HORSE RACE, IT'S A HORSE RACE!!" crap as I am now. Sorry, but one of the candidates needs to be put out to pasture, and the other is hitting his stride, baby, hitting his stride.

[Coexist]

29. morning kick...