Senator Obama opens up crushing 9 point lead in Ohio-Suffolk University-tied in Missouri

[Politics_Guy25]

Link:

http://www.suffolk.edu/offices/20580.html#anchor31493

Oct. 20, 2008 -- Obama Leads by 9 in Ohio, McCain Edges in Missouri; Suffolk University Poll Shows McCain Votes Driven by Factors External to the Candidate
BOSTON – With just over two weeks left before the presidential election, voters in the key state of Ohio are giving the Democratic ticket of Barack Obama and Joe Biden a 9-point lead (51 percent-42 percent) over the Republican ticket of John McCain and Sarah Palin, according to a poll released today by Suffolk University.

In Missouri, McCain led by 1 percent (45 percent to 44 percent) statewide. He also led the bellwether test of Platte County, Mo.

"If Ohio goes for Obama, it may be lights out for McCain,” said David Paleologos, director of the Political Research Center at Suffolk University in Boston. "At least today, the probability of an Ohio win is supported by the high-single-digit lead in the statewide poll coupled with the Perry County bellwether, which showed Obama leading by 4 percent.”

In 2008, Suffolk University bellwethers were 95 percent accurate in predicting straight-up winners in both Democratic and Republican primaries, and, when coupled with statewide Suffolk polls, were 100 percent accurate in predicting straight-up winners.

What drives McCain voters is not always the man himself, but other factors, such as a vote against Obama or support for Palin.

Obama voters were more excited by their candidate, but some were voting against President George W. Bush:

Factors OH Voters for McCain - % MO Voters for McCain - %
Vote for McCain 49 66
Vote for Palin 8 4
Vote against Obama 15 21 9
OH Voters for Obama MO Voters for Obama
Vote for Obama 71 73
Vote against McCain 10 6
Vote against Bush 12 14

"Obama’s strength is two-fold: More people are driven to vote for Obama because of Obama; in addition, any anti-Obama McCain voters are offset by anti-Bush Obama voters who may not be motivated by Obama, but are motivated against George Bush," said Paleologos.

And wow-no 48-42 lead where we have to worry about Obama not pulling above 50% either. This is great news!!

Combine this with:
Obama leading 52-43 among Gallup Likely voters
Obama leading 54-44 in Virginia!!
Obama leading 52-44 in PPP North Carolina poll!

Wow.

[ayeshahaqqiqa]

1. I think Missouri could still go blue

Look at the huge turnouts in KC and St. Louis.