Notice how some polls are heading down to +6 while some are heading above +10?

[Bicoastal]

And remember how a few days ago, these polls were moving in the opposite directions, respectively?

My guess is that Obama is really above McCain by +8, and everything else we're seeing is just "statistical noise,' as they say.

But it's silly to spend all of our time obsessing over the lower polls and ignoring higher ones--especially because a month ago, we all would have been ECSTATIC over a +6 lead. I for one can't WAIT to see the polls reflect the results of the final debate.

[Schulzz]

1. That why I think it's a good thing this happened before the debate.

Makes it harder to spin the debate as a comeback for McCain, because the polls that went down 1-2 points will probably be up again in 3 days. I'm not saying the polls will not tighten a bit before the election. But I think the debate will help Obama to keep his height for at least another week.

[SuperTrouper]

2. They will tighten up until election day. I still predict a 52-48 victory for Obama

which will translate into 333+ electoral votes for our ticket. Do not agonize over the national polls going up or down, they are only a snapshot at that moment. Do not get complacent and keep working as if Obama is down 3 points. And for all you poll-addicts, there is also the TIPP/IBD poll which always have shown a difference of 3-4 points or less in their national track for whomever is ahead. They claim that they are the most accurate, but in the last 2 elections, if you keep your poll with a net difference of <3 points you would have been right. Again, do not panic, just take these polls for whatever they are worth. Even Chuck Todd pays no attention to the National polls, he looks at the state polls.

[Alter Ego]

4. That's my guess.

Remember--we just saw McCain get curbstomped for a third time. That debate will push Obama up again for a few more days and demoralize Freepazoids even more.

[tekisui]

7. I think you are right.

45-48 is the absolute most I see mcPOW getting, it is also about the lowest a candidate from one of the two major parties can go, in this day and age.

Obama will get 52-53% of the vote.

[nickn777]

3. It's funny how intrade is a whoppping 86 - 14...

Yet today's polls DEFINITELY show this race is tightening, which we all expected. McDope cracked 45 for the first time in the Rasmussen poll. Gallup is down to 6.....I for one, will be the first to predict that Zogby will lead tomorrow morning with the first national poll showing McCain ahead....

Obama needs to start countering McCain in the media wars. McCain's appearance on Letterman is only going to help him since he will be able to spew his garbage with no response. Hopefully, Obama will appear on Leno soon, to offset the Letterman appearance.

This is reality folks, this race is FAR from over. I disagree with the strategy of simply playing defense until Nov. 4th.

[mvd]

5. I wanted to see him be a LITTLE more aggressive last night

Obama still won handily, but there were times he missed what could have been knock out answers.

[Jennicut]

6. OMG....your post is hilarious. By the way, Biden is on Leno tonight.

I love Chicken Littles. Weren't you guys the ones that said Obama was gonna lose this race right after the Rethug National Convention? Nonsense. Zogby can go kiss my ass, his polling is terrible. Tightening in the race may be happening but that always happens right before the election is about to happen. I am tired of the OMFG lets not get complacent. Are any of us complacent? No, I don't think so. Bush led Kerry in some polls 2 weeks before the election in 2004 by as much as 7% and won by 2%. McLame did not even win the debate last night and Joe the Plumber stories annoyed all the focus groups.

[nickn777]

11. my comment was more addressing the issue of people thinking...

that Obama is going to get some sort of a boost in the polls from this debate. I do not see it. He should have ripped McCain for the Ayers attacks. And when McCain said he wasn't Bush, Obama should have leveled him by asking him how a candidate can be that different from George Bush in light of the fact that Bush ENDORSED him.

"Senator McCain, if you are so different from the current president, why did he endorse you?"

[alcibiades_mystery]

9. pffffffft

[BumRushDaShow]

10. "Obama needs to start countering McCain in the media wars."

He is now rotating 3 different commercials, twice an hour on one of the CBS affiliate music stations that I am listening to here in Philly. This is happening on similar top Arbitron stations here. This is not including whatever TV ads that he is running locally or on cable.

I.e., if he does any more "media war", it may backfire as people may get sick of the number of ads.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

8. Actually The Most Current Polls

Actually the most current polls have Obama up anywhere between 4 and 8:


http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/latestpolls/index.html


Maybe we are headed toward a squeaker or maybe not...


Just when I think I have it figured out I realize I don't...