Gallup - Obama 51(unchanged), McCain 42(+1)

[MadBadger]

Obama has been above 50% for 11 straight days now.

[UnrepentantUnitarian]

1. Bouncing around. Completely expected.

McCain remains mired in the low 40s.

[leftist.]

2. My ritual every weekday at 1:00pm is to sit here and hit F5 until you post these :P

I know I could check myself but I enjoy it. Thanks hnmnf!

[TheDonkey]

3. Very good Obama is holding above 51 before the debate

If he does another great job maybe we could see a bounce from 50, wow.

[Jennicut]

4. Obama seems to be steady at 50% or over...very good for us.

[Schulzz]

5. Not the best news, because Obama must have had a BIG day two on Sunday,

as the gap widened by three points. I expected Obama to widen the gap furter because of this day. It might tighten to 5-6 points when Sunday drops off. But Obama will still be ahead.

[mohc]

8. But Saturday must have been bad for Obama

Saturday was a mini valley for Obama support as his lead shrunk to 7. That number will roll off tomorrow and even if today's numbers were soft, Obama will likely have a wider lead (most likely from McCain dropping a point). Trying to figure out the individual days numbers in the end is fairly fruitless. They average them out over 3 days just for this purpose, so that the MoE of a single day does not throw the trend off.

[scheming daemons]

6. 11 straight days 50 or more for Obama, 13 straight days of 43 or less for McCain

No closer than 7 points at any time in two weeks.


The support has hardened.

[azurnoir]

7. for the more politically literate

has a presidential candidate been as far behind as McCain, this close to the election and still won?

[No Passaran]

9. Reagan

[mohc]

13. And Truman

Although that very well may have been due to the polls just being wrong than Truman catching up at the end.

For those wanting to check out Gallup trends for past elections here is the http://www.gallup.com/poll/110548/Gallup-Presidential-Election-TrialHeat-Trends-19362004.aspx">link

[Jennicut]

10. I don't think so, I will have to do research on Google.

[jenmito]

14. Frank Newport was on MSNBC and said it happened twice-when Truman beat Hewey and when

Reagan beat Carter. He was asked what the history of polling shows when someone is leading by this much and instead of stating the fact that they almost ALWAYS win, he named the two exceptions and concluded that there's still hope for McCain. :eyes:

[Schulzz]

12. Gallup historical context:

(I know that Gore won, it's not my graphic :P)

[Sodan]

16. Kerry led 298-231 November 1st 2004

http://www.electoral-vote.com/evp2004/Pres/Maps/Nov01.html

I know everything is different now - but nothing's over.

[Mz Pip]

15. Bush in 2000

I know Gore really won, but he was about as far ahead as Obama at the beginning of October.

However, there were other factors in play - Clinton fatigue from the Impeachment bullshit and Gore's stiff debate performance. There was peace and prosperity so people probably felt it would continue regardless of who was in office.

Reagan was only 4 points behind going into the last debate. And McCain doesn't come anywhere close to having Reagan's oratory skills. Also, although he was pretty old, he didn't look it. McCain looks ancient.

[jenmito]

11. And according to the poll of likely voters for THIS election, Obama's up 53%-43%!

"Gallup is also looking at the race according two likely voter scenarios. One, the traditional Gallup approach, takes into account voters' intentions to vote in the current election as well as self-reported voting history. Among this group, Obama leads McCain by six points, 51% to 45%. The other approach uses only voters' self-professed likelihood to vote in 2008, but does not take into account whether respondents have voted in past elections. Among this expanded group, Obama leads by 10 points, 53% to 43%."

I think this is the most accurate poll since there ARE many first-time voters this year (who don't HAVE records of past voting habits.)