I'm a little late tonight because of the debate, but I'm back with a ton of polls to report on, most of them good for Obama, and the one or two that arent, I can question their validity with success!
National Polls
Kos/R2K: Obama 52(unchanged), McCain 41(+1)
Rasmussen: Obama 52(unchanged), McCain 44(unchanged)
Gallup: Obama 51(+1), McCain 42(unchanged)
Hotline*: Obama 46(-1), McCain 44(+3)
GWU: Obama 50(unchanged), 43(unchanged)
*The Hotline poll today changed its party ID breakdown for some reason. Now, the dems only have a 2 point advantage, which is pretty bogus. The Dems should have around a 5-10 point lead over the Repukes.
RCP Average: Obama 49.6(-.2), McCain 43.6(+.5)
Pollster Average: Obama 49.8, McCain 43.6
State Polls
California
SUSA: Obama 55(+2), McCain 39(-4)
Pennsylvania
Rasmussen: Obama 54(+4), McCain 40(-2)
Muhlenberg: Obama 48(-1), McCain 38(unchanged)
SUSA: Obama 55(+5), McCain 40(-4)
Pennsylvania is quickly moving from a lean Obama state to a solid one....just dont tell Chuck Todd. He doesnt want to hear it.
RCP Average: Obama 51.2, McCain 39.2
Nevada
Ins. Advantage: Obama 49(+1), McCain 47
Reno Gazette Journal: Obama 50(+6), McCain 43(unchanged)
Obama appears to be opening up a small lead here, though some of the polls are still within the MOE
RCP Average: Obama 49.6, McCain 46.6
Colorado
Ins. Advantage: Obama 51(unchanged), McCain 45(+4)
Race gets closer, so could be just statistical noise
RCP Average: Obama 49.3, McCain 45.3
Alaska
Rasmussen: McCain 55(-9), Obama 40(+7)
North Carolina
CNN/Time: Obama 49(+2), McCain 49(+1)
SUSA: McCain 49(-9), Obama 46(+8)
The SUSA poll is way off, considering they show Dole also leading here. The Party ID may be the heart of the problem, with polls such as PPP giving a much larger Party ID advantage to Democrats
RCP Average: Obama 48.2, McCain 47.6
Wisconsin
CNN/Time: Obama 51(+1), McCain 46(-1)
SUSA: Obama 52, McCain 42
Wisconsin is becoming more and more of a solid Obama state, but for now it remains lean Obama.
RCP Average: Obama 50.3, McCain 42.8
Ohio
CNN/Time: Obama 50(+1), 47(unchanged)
PPP: Obama 49(+5), McCain 43(-5)
There is a clear trend towards Obama here in Ohio
RCP Average: Obama 48.9, McCain 44.9
Florida
Mason-Dixon: Obama 48, McCain 46
RCP Average: 48.3, McCain 45.3
Minnesota
Minn Public Radio: Obama 54(+6), McCain 40(+2)
Its turning into a blowout here.
RCP AVerage: Obama 52.3, McCain 41.8
New Hampshire
CNN/Time: Obama 53(+2), McCain 45(unchanged)
RCP Average: Obama 52, Mccain 41.3
Indiana
CNN/Time: McCain 51, Obama 46
R2K: Obama 46, McCain 46
RCP Average: McCain 48.5, Obama 46
To the Map!
Today we see movement into the Solid Obama column in a couple states. I've moved NH and MN into the solid Obama column because of the polls showing Obama up double digits there in the past week. Because of a mistake from yesterday, I've moved NM, WA, MI and NJ back into the solid Obama category which it was originally in. If the election were held today, I think Obama would win 51-45 over McCain.
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/latestpolls/index.htmlhttp://www.pollster.com/polls/us/08-us-pres-ge-mvo.php