Wash Post: Kerry has moved into position to challenge Dean/Gep in Iowa

[Karmadillo]

If you check paragraph four, you'll see the claim is apparently based on anecdotal evidence. It will be interesting to see if public polling supports this. The article also contains a good summary of the discussion on tax policy from today's NPR debate.

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/articles/A59287-2004Jan6.html

Kerry Attacks Dean, Gephardt On Tax Issue
Senator Says Plans Would Hurt Working Families
By David S. Broder and Dan Balz
Washington Post Staff Writers
Wednesday, January 7, 2004; Page A01

DES MOINES, Jan. 6 -- The two Democratic front-runners in Iowa came under attack here Tuesday on the issue of middle-class taxes as Sen. John F. Kerry (Mass.) seized an opportunity to build on what appears to be growing support by charging that Howard Dean and Rep. Richard A. Gephardt (Mo.) would hurt working families.

In a two-hour National Public Radio debate, Kerry said that Dean's and Gephardt's support for repealing all of President Bush's tax cuts would fall hardest on families struggling to pay higher health care and tuition costs and property taxes.

The former Vermont governor dismissed the charge as "hogwash," and Gephardt said his health care plan would provide four times as much relief as the Bush tax cuts. But Kerry pressed his attack, saying his rivals had abandoned the economic policy of protecting the middle class that proved successful for President Bill Clinton. "We didn't take it out of the hide of the middle class," he said.

Kerry's aggressiveness came amid indications from the other camps and from Iowa Democrats -- citing his larger crowds, effectiveness on the stump and signs of organizational strength -- that he has moved into a position to challenge both Dean and Gephardt, who for weeks have been in a head-to-head battle for first place here. Sen. John Edwards (N.C.), who has made similar criticisms of Dean and Gephardt, skipped the debate in favor of campaigning in the state, and Sen. Joseph I. Lieberman (Conn.), who supported Kerry's arguments, is not competing in Iowa. That gave Kerry a platform he was quick to seize.

more...

[cprise]

1. Should be: 'We took it out of the poor's hide instead.'

Welfare 'reform.'

[Karmadillo]

2. Have any of our candidates talked much about welfare 'reform'?

Not one of the more glorious chapters in the history of the Democrats. A reform of the reform would be a good idea.

[curse10]

3. I don't think I've heard anyone talk about it

it doesn't, unfortunately, seem like an important issue this go around.

[cprise]

7. I can't think of any liberal Clinton accomplishments

Can you?

I think being a punching bag for the Right (and a Democratic martyr by extension) makes up for his conservative policies.

[WiseMen]

15. Can you find any "liberal" Dean deeds not ordered by VT courts?

[Feanorcurufinwe]

4. Kerry's coming on strong.

Time after time, you hear NH voters say their biggest issue is beating Bush. The bounce from Iowa is going to be the biggest ever this year.

[SahaleArm]

8. I'm lovin' this...

Iowa is going to be a dogfight - regardless of what the polls say.

[maddezmom]

14. the tax plan

Kerry and Clark's are similar, think they will do better on this issue for the voters.

[molly]

16. Kerry would chew up dubya and spit him out

I would love to see that debate!

[IndianaGreen]

5. A Kerry Iowa win will only succeed in knocking Gephardt out of the race

Gephardt was always expected to win Iowa as Kerry was New Hampshire. If Kerry wins Iowa, he will only succeed in knocking Gephardt out of the race. Gephardt won't have the money to compete the rest of the way.

Kerry will not win New Hampshire, and if he finishes tied or behind Clark, he is finished as well.

The only way for the pro-IWR candidates to stop Dean is by dropping out of the race and endorse Clark. Their own Presidential ambitions is blinding them to what they must to stop Dean. Time is running out!

Ironically, the only candidate that can compete against Dean (and Bush) as far as money goes, is John Kerry. The only way for Kerry to effectively challenge Dean is by having Wes Clark drop out of the race, together with the pro-IWR candidates. I cannot conceive of any scenario in which Clark would do something as idiotic as dropping out of the race in order to endorse Kerry, particularly when Clark is in the hunt.

So there you have it! The only way to stop Dean is by having all the other candidates drop out in favor of Clark, or have Clark join them in endorsing Kerry.

[kerrygoddess]

10. Kerry better choice than Clark

Kerry has a proven on what counts for Dems. Not to discredit the polls, which I do not put much credence into, Kerry has done alot for NH and the voters do care about more than beating Bush.

[cindyw]

6. I loved this debate. Along with the one on Sunday.

The talked ideas. can you imagine that. We actually got to hear them talk about what they would do as president. Compare this to the stupid debate we had that was 30 minutes of opening questions about how everyone felt about Dean. Who cares. People can only make wise decisions if they know the facts of the candidates ideas.

[Kahuna]

9. Well! There's that tax increase thingy rearing its ugly head.

:shrug:

[kerrygoddess]

11. Maybe you don't have to worry about taxes like some folks do!

[depakid]

12. The Washington Post has ZERO credibility when discussing Dean

After their appalling editorial and relentless bashing, the Post is about the last source I'd cite to support a case for my candidate. Their agenda is clear and Dean is a serious threat to it. They will say absolutely anything, without any regard to the truth- and I think most everyone knows that (or should know that) at this point.

[Adjoran]

13. You have to give him credit

Everyone thought he was toast as he fell so far behind Dean in NH, and even in polls in his own state of MA. But Kerry has found a way to get back into it, if he can manage to finish first or second in Iowa. He would get a huge media bounce out of it, coming from nowhere in the final weeks.

Iowa is a very funny situation. You can't just go vote. The caucuses are held at 7 pm, and there is a lot of party business they do before getting down to the business of presidential preference, which takes time the way they do it. Basically, supporters of each candidate group together. Each caucus has limited delegates to award to the state convention, so those candidates' supporters who aren't able to win any delegates then join other groups.

It requires a person to go out on a very cold January Iowa night, and spend three to four hours listening to a bunch of rather boring procedural stuff before getting down to the voting. Gephardt has had an organization there since '88, when he won, so his people will turn out. It remains to be seen who else can get people to show up and stay the course.

If Gephardt doesn't win Iowa, he is toast. He has been having trouble raising money as it is, and needs the boost a victory brings. He has potential strength on Feb 3, with Missouri, Oklahoma, and South Carolina as potential wins, but unless he gets a quick infusion of cash, it just won't happen for him.

A strong Kerry showing in Iowa could turn a lot of heads in NH. The Granite State folks have a long history of confounding the pollsters.