Chuck Todd said it at the beginning of September.

[Drunken Irishman]

The candidate who leads on October 1st will most likely win this election.

He's right. Rarely does a candidate blow a lead this late in the game. I think we're seeing the break everyone expected during the summer and once this race stabilizes, Obama will probably hold a 5-7 point lead through the rest of the month.

[jenmito]

1. I could've sworn he said whoever leads on Oct. 15th most likely wins. n/t

[Drunken Irishman]

5. Did he change it?

He said at the beginning of September, whoever held the lead entering October, especially if it were a significant lead, they would win.

Figures he'd change his mind. :eyes:

[jenmito]

7. No. I remember him saying back in Sept. that the person who's leading on Oct. 15th usually wins the

election. I think you misheard. But I could be wrong.

ETA-I think the date Oct. 15th stuck in my head because I have a friend whose birthday is that day.

[1corona4u]

8. Yep, he said the 15th.

[jenmito]

9. That's what I remember hearing back in early Sept.

:hi:

[HiFructosePronSyrup]

2. LOL

I'd like to hear him explain himself now.

[SeeHopeWin]

3. Few minuted ago, he was changing his mind...Asshole!

[GrizzlyMan]

11. He knows McCain can't win

But he is desperate to push the horse race narrative which I imagine is getting harder and harder.

[Schulzz]

4. Early voting might also be a big factor this year.

So a big lead now is certainly an advantage.

[alcibiades_mystery]

6. I'm a Mets fan...don't fuck with me

"Rarely does a candidate blow a lead this late in the game."

Aaaaargh...

:-)

[spanone]

10. chuck was pulling the wagon for mcgrump earlier...

[malik flavors]

12. stop jinxing us.

[jenmito]

13. Jeff Greenfield on CBS just said that history shows that by the mid October

preferences seem to be locked in place.

[ChimpersMcSmirkers]

14. Tick Tock McPanic...

[jenmito]

15. Yup. There's no way McCain's gonna be ahead in 2 weeks...

unless he dumps Palin and chooses Ronald Reagan. Oh, wait...

[H2O Man]

16. While not impossible,

it is growing more unlikely that McCain can change the tide at this point. It would take a significant error on Obama's part to make that possible. And Obama does not seem prone to big errors on the campaign trail.