The Daily Widget – Fri 9/26 – O-327, M-211 – North Carolina Blue; New Hampshire Blue

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Fri Sep-26-08 06:44 AM
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The Daily Widget – Fri 9/26 – O-327, M-211 – North Carolina Blue; New Hampshire Blue

1. ANALYSIS

Twenty-three new state polls were released yesterday for 14 different states. Three states move between columns today, all to the left. Oregon has been polling stronger for Barack Obama and moves into the Strong Obama column today. New Hampshire reverses course and changes back to Lean Obama, and North Carolina surprises us by switching to Obama today. And the popular vote and trading both skyrocket today for Obama.

Oregon has been considered a safe state for Democratic Presidential candidates for quite a long time now, although it is a perennial weak blue. A new Survey USA poll shows Obama leading McCain by 11 points there, moving it 3.3 points to the left after old polls fall off.

New Hampshire finally does a 180 and goes back toward Obama today. Polls from three different sources were released yesterday, each showing Obama with a 1-point lead. After older polls fall off the radar, New Hampshire takes a 1.6 point step to the left today, switching back to Obama.

North Carolina is a stunner. It had been polling weak red as recently as late last week, with a couple pollsters showing at least a 10-point lead for McCain. The Obama Campaign has been spending time there, and the McCain Campaign was forced to move resources there just recently to protect its red status. Rasmussen now shows Obama with a 2-point lead in North Carolina, following other pollsters who have also shown this trend to the left. With the new poll and old polls falling off, North Carolina moves 3.3 points to the left and is now polling on average with an Obama lead of +0.7. Let’s hope this trend continues!

Speaking of trends, Obama had just regained the popular vote lead yesterday and led by a tiny 0.06% over McCain after trailing for two solid weeks. With the new batch of polling today, Obama’s lead of a slim 75,000 votes yesterday rockets to a lead of more than a million votes nationwide today, or +0.82%. For a warm, fuzzy feeling, have a look at Figure 4a below. :D

Trading for Obama soars approximately 3% in both sets of swing states today. Total tracking for the Wigand Electoral Average crosses above the majority line for the first time in a few weeks (see Figure 6b below), thanks to Ohio now trading blue and North Carolina and Indiana now trading in “The Zone”. Obama’s Seventeen tracking is fast approaching its majority mark as well.

Note: Trend lines in graphs are only accurate up to five days in the future, so we need to view the trend lines with that in mind.

2. NEW STATE POLLS

Scale:

Strong Obama (10% or greater)

Weak Obama (5% to 9%)

Lean Obama (0% to 4%)

Lean McCain (0% to 4%)

Weak McCain (5% to 9%)

Strong McCain (10% or greater)

Alaska

Obama 37, McCain 55 (Farleigh Dickinson, 9/19, +/- 4.0, 601 LV)
Arkansas

Obama 42, McCain 51 (Rasmussen, 9/22, +/- 4.5, 500 LV)
Delaware

Obama 56, McCain 36 (Farleigh Dickinson, 9/19, +/- 4.0, 601 LV)
Delaware

Obama 57, McCain 37 (Survey USA, 9/23, +/- 3.7, 703 LV)
Maine

Obama 49, McCain 44 (Survey USA, 9/23, +/- 3.8, 675 LV)
Massachusetts

Obama 58, McCain 38 (Rasmussen, 9/23, +/- 4.5, 500 LV)
Massachusetts

Obama 55, McCain 39 (Survey USA, 9/23, +/- 3.8, 679 LV)
Michigan

Obama 46, McCain 46 (NBC News/Mason-Dixon, 9/21, +/- 4.0, 625 LV)
Michigan

Obama 47, McCain 39 (National Journal, 9/22, +/- 4.9, 406 RV)
Michigan

Obama 48, McCain 45 (Strategic Vision, 9/24, +/- 3.0, 1200 LV)
Michigan

Obama 51, McCain 38 (Detroit Free Press, 9/24, +/- 4.0, 602 LV)
New Hampshire

Obama 44, McCain 43 (National Journal, 9/22, +/- 4.9, 403 RV)
New Hampshire

Obama 46, McCain 45 (Strategic Vision, 9/24, +/- 3.0, 1200 LV)
New Hampshire

Obama 46, McCain 45 (Suffolk University, 9/24, +/- 4.0, 600 LV)
New York

Obama 57, McCain 38 (Survey USA, 9/24, +/- 3.8, 668 LV)
North Carolina

Obama 49, McCain 47 (Rasmussen, 9/23, +/- 4.5, 500 LV)
Ohio

Obama 46, McCain 47 (Rasmussen, 9/23, +/- 4.0, 700 LV)
Oregon

Obama 52, McCain 41 (Survey USA, 9/23, +/- 3.8, 708 LV)
Pennsylvania

Obama 43, McCain 41 (National Journal, 9/22, +/- 4.9, 406 RV)
Pennsylvania

Obama 49, McCain 45 (Rasmussen, 9/23, +/- 4.0, 700 LV)
Pennsylvania

Obama 50, McCain 44 (Survey USA, 9/24, +/- 3.0, 1094 LV)
West Virginia

Obama 42, McCain 50 (Rasmussen, 9/24, +/- 4.5, 500 LV)
Wisconsin

Obama 49, McCain 43 (Research 2000, 9/24, +/- 4.0, 600 LV)

3. ELECTORAL VOTE SNAPSHOT

^ FIGURE 3a. This graph shows the daily tracking of Obama’s projected electoral votes from three sources. 270 is a majority of the electoral votes. The blue line shows daily tracking from 538.com, which projects what the outcome should be on election day. The red line shows daily tracking from Electoral-Vote.com, which shows a current snapshot of Obama’s electoral progress if the undecideds break evenly. The green line is my own projection, and it shows a current snapshot of Obama’s electoral progress if the undecideds break the same way as the swing states. A trend line is used (dashed green line) to show the average progress since May 19 and possible route for the next seven days.

^ FIGURE 3b. This graph shows Obama’s green line and red line from the previous graph, and compares it to John Kerry’s 2004 progress (orange line) as shown from Electoral-Vote.com. (Both the red line and the orange line show data from Electoral-Vote.com)

^ FIGURE 3c. This chart organizes all the state polls into groups categorized by how much a certain candidate is leading. “Strong” is used to indicate a candidate leading by 10 points or greater in a certain state. “Weak” is used to indicate a candidate leading between 5 and 9 points in a certain state. “Lean” is used to indicate a candidate leading between 0 and 4 points in a certain state. A total of electoral votes for each category is given at the bottom of each column.

4. POPULAR VOTE SNAPSHOT

^ FIGURE 4a. I am projecting 126 million votes on election day, which is the total 2004 votes plus population growth for each state. A total projected popular vote is calculated for each candidate based on projected votes on election day this year multiplied by each state’s current poll results. This graph shows the daily tracking of the popular vote calculations.

^ FIGURE 4b. Obama’s cumulative lead in the national daily tracking polls is illustrated in this graph. Showing it this way helps us see the Obama Campaign’s momentum shifts much easier over time.

5. OBAMA’S SEVENTEEN

^ FIGURE 5a. The “Obama Seventeen” is the group of 17 states where the Obama campaign is concentrating much of its efforts this year. This widget shows how the candidates will do if the undecideds nationwide break the same way as the swing states. Each of the seventeen swing states are listed below the indicator’s current percentage of the total 1700 possible. The closing figures on Intrade are shown next to each state, with a column to show the change from the previous day. The scale for these is 0 to 100, with 50 being a majority. The number of electoral votes for each state is shown in the left margin, and the most recent polling for each state is shown in the far right column.

^ FIGURE 5b. This graph shows the daily tracking of “Obama’s Seventeen” swing states total from the Obama’s Seventeen widget above. To show Obama’s progress in the swing states, divide the latest closing figure by 1700.

^ FIGURE 5c. This graph plots all of the state polling results for Obama’s Seventeen swing states, and displays a trend line to illustrate each candidate’s progress in these states as a group.

6. WIGAND ELECTORAL AVERAGE

^ FIGURE 6a. The Wigand Electoral Average is our own indicator, and shows how the candidates will do if the undecideds nationwide break the same way as the swing states. Each of the twelve swing states are listed below the indicator’s current score. The closing figures on Intrade are shown next to each state, with a column to show the change from the previous day. The scale for these is 0 to 100, with 50 being a majority.

^ FIGURE 6b. This graph shows the daily tracking of the swing states total from the Wigand Electoral Average widget above. To show Obama’s progress in the swing states, divide the latest closing figure by 1200.

^ FIGURE 6c. Wigand vs. Trading and Real Clear Politics Average. The Wigand Electoral Average uses both poll averages and trading (swing states), and this graph compares it to the national daily tracking average from Real Clear Politics, as well as the closing trading figures from Intrade (people buying shares with real money) and Rasmussen Markets (people using fake money).

^ FIGURE 6d. This graph shows the daily tracking of each swing state’s closing figure on Intrade. The scale is 0 to 100 with 50 being a majority. I commonly refer to the range from 40.00 to 60.00 as “The Zone” because the states in The Zone are true swing states this year.

The Wigand Electoral Average uses public polling results to determine base states for both parties and a short list of swing states, and combines the actual electoral votes from base states with a weighted Intrade calculation for electoral votes from swing states to derive an average on a scale of 0 to 100. On this scale, greater than 50.00 is considered a win for Barack Obama. An average of 50.10 would yield 270 electoral votes, and an average of 100.00 would yield 538 electoral votes. More Information

7. LINKS AND SOURCES

Yesterday’s Widget
Full Weekly Tracking
Saturday Data Dump
Past editions of THE MATH

Sources:
Pollster.com
FiveThirtyEight.com
Electoral-Vote.com
Intrade
Rasmussen Markets
RCP Average
RCP Latest Polls
3 Blue Dudes