McCain Doubling Down on the Debate? -- Nate Silver/TNR

[zonkers]

Could McCain be Doubling Down on the Debate?

http://blogs.tnr.com/tnr/blogs/the_plank/archive/2008/09/25/could-mccain-be-doubling-down-on-the-debate

A somewhat contrarian view:

I really can't imagine John McCain not attending the debate tomorrow. Although it's hard to know exactly how the spectacle would play out -- Obama fielding questions from Jim Lehrer by himself? -- as I opined last night, I think Americans would largely not excuse McCain for failing to show up......

....Perhaps, however, rather than trying to postpone the debate, McCain is instead seeking to increase its importance. Surely the drama of the past 30 hours has made it an even more captivating event, probably leading to increased viewership. Moreover, with the subject matter likely to be expanded to include the economy, and the candidates having had less time to prepare, the entire exercise becomes less predictable, with gaffes more likely to occur, but also the potential for "clutch" performances.

So perhaps instead of gambling two polling points on the debate -- the average magnitude of the shift in opinion following one of these things, McCain would instead like to gamble four. A two-point swing probably would not be enough to put McCain ahead (though it would be close); a four-point swing probably would.

The downside, of course, is that if McCain has a bad night tomorrow, he might do enough damage to effectively end the campaign. If Obama were to pull, say, 7 points ahead, with some structural advantages in the electoral college and what will be a strong turnout operation, I don't think McCain would have better than about a 1-in-6 chance of pulling the election out.

--Nate Silver

[patomime]

1. McCain...

the Drama King.

"Thanks, but no thanks":spank:

[MrModerate]

2. Great, just what we're looking for in a leader . . .

A gambling addict, ready to risk it all on one throw of the dice. That's a clear formula for good governance, no?

I think the people may sense the desperation and irresponsibility such a stunt reveals.

[krkaufman]

3. I have to wonder how many people are aware of McCain's penchant for gambling.

I hadn't heard about it myself, until this week.

[jeanpalmer]

4. Has anyone heard how he has performed in the mock debates

Maybe he did so poorly, this is their out. McCain doesn't look like a debater. He's ok at reading talking points. But Obama has always looked good in debates. Maybe they feel it's such a loser that they can't afford to let it happen. So far I don't see anyone in the MSM taking him to task for opting out. In fact, some polls have narrowed with his taking the "high road" on the financial "crisis."

The other thing it accomplishes, it opens the way for them to keep Palin from debating, using the same excuse.

[jpertello]

5. trust-

McCain will be the less prepared of the 2. Obama is a consummate professional. Although some may say he is wordy and remote in debates I think he's rearing for a fight and is more than ready. He's been preparing to confront McCain in the right arena (not McCain's hokey "town hall meeting" lovefests where Obama would've been planted by Rove in front of a neocon audience) for a long time. My prediction is that if this debate goes on McOld will make so many gaffs and blunders 24 hours of newsgab won't barely be able to cover it all.