Which SINGLE state is the most important?

[DangerDave921]

You can only pick one. Which is the single most important state to watch this year as the election unfolds. Which state holds the key to an Obama victory?

I think it's PA. If he can't hold PA, then I think the election goes to McCain.

Other thoughts?

[Symarip]

1. All of them (nt)

[Ian David]

2. Reality. n/t

[cynatnite]

3. Virginia, IMO

I think Obama will win PA.

[Phoebe Loosinhouse]

32. In which we are helped by the fact that Warner is just going to crush Gilmore

and I think that fact alone will get a lot of people picking the D over the R.

[blueclown]

4. pennsylvania.

it is the largest state that obama needs to keep, but is in danger of losing.

i still think he wins the state, but it is without a doubt that most important state that he must win. without pennsylvania, he doesn't win the election.

[Cosmocat]

34. Nope ...

Prior to the R convention, McCain was never any closer than 3 down to BO and on average was down about 5-6 here. There is ONE poll that shows a "tie" and a couple that show it 1 or 2 points since his convention bounce. This will turnaround in lag as the national polls have.

The ONLY polls that have had McCain any lower than 3 down are FOX/Rasmussun and Strategic Vision, an R pollster.

Pa went Kerry in 04, Gore in 00. We booted Santorum by a WIDE margin two years ago, he was a powerhouse and the third ranked R senator. We have a strong D governor. Biden helps given his media hits Philly and he is from Scranton - he has long been refered to as the "third senator from Pa."

During this presidential campaign, the Ds have picked up over 250,000 more Ds, the Rs have lost 80,000 of their registered voters.

I have said this before, IF BO were to lose Pa, it won't be a "swing" state, or the one that beats him, he will have gotten blown out.

[XemaSab]

5. I can't pick a single one

but Nevada, New Mexico, Colorado, Alaska, Arizona, and Montana are going to be interesting to watch.

[Mz Pip]

6. Ohio

Ground zero once again.

[faithfulcitizen]

46. agree, Ohio (of the tossups)

[Muttocracy]

7. OH. nt

[MadBadger]

8. I would say Colorado.

I think if he wins Colorado, he will win this election and win New Mexico as well. If he doesnt win Colorado, he will have to find alternative ways to get to 270.

[FrenchieCat]

9. Not anyone of them....and that is exactly how we wanted it......

More than one route to the White House, i.e., the 50 states strategy.

:woohoo:

[tekisui]

Exactly. THe POW camp can't defend EVERY scenario

that leads to an Obama Presidency. In fact I think the win will be substantial.

:bounce:

[LooseWilly]

15. A point I hadn't thought about.

Wouldn't it be a shame, from Repub. point of view, to steal the votes in MI, only to end up losing OH, VA, CO, NM, and NH... and wind up losing anyway?

I can't help but suspect that stealing elections has to be pretty expensive. Do they have enough resources to steal 5 or 6 state elections?

[sandnsea]

24. I think we're back to that point

Where there are many states that will swing to Obama. But I hang on to the fact that as long as we get Colorado, that probably means we're okay in NM, IA, and NH; and that means we win.

[DangerDave921]

25. just plain wrong

there is no 50 state strategy. This really comes down to a handful of critical states.

[ContinentalOp]

28. There is no 50 state strategy? In what sense DangerDave921?

[DangerDave921]

29. In the sense that . . .

the campaign of course realizes it has no serious shot at many states, i.e., virtually the entire south and much of the west. While it may have offices in those states, it knows it's not going to win them. This election will still come down to a few critical states.

[d_b]

10. VA

[mikelgb]

11. CA

but I'm biased

Hard to argue with our EVs though

[Blue Meany]

12. Mine, of course n/t

[OHDEM]

13. As Ohio goes...

So goes the nation! Keep our fingers crossed that our votes actually count!!

[Kurt_and_Hunter]

14. No, not PA. The most important state to watch should be the one where

the winner of the state is likeliest to also win the election. Obama could easily win PA but lose. McCain could easily win VA but lose.

Colorado is a good candidate, but I think the state most likely to correlate with the outcome either way is still Ohio.

IMO.

[CarbonDate]

31. But Obama cannot win without it.

I don't think anybody disputes that.

[Kurt_and_Hunter]

41. But that goes double for California and New York

The most important state to watch has to be one where knowing that one outcome (either way) would greatly increase your ability to guess the national winner.

[Danger Mouse]

16. Obama will not lose PA. As for the most important state?

There is no single most important state.

[TomClash]

17. All 50 plus DC nt

[grantcart]

18. none and that's the brilliance of the Obama campaign

he has 15 different paths to 270 McCain has one

[DangerDave921]

26. McCain has only one??

How do you do the math on that one?

He COULD flip some blue states.

[Fired Up Democrat]

19. colorado

we will hold all the kerry states plus new mexico and iowa look good as well. I think this whole race comes down to colorado.

[Mojambo]

20. PA definitely. n/t

[Stop Cornyn]

21. If we're fighting over PA, we've already lost. PA is NOT a swingstate.

[Stop Cornyn]

27. Instead of PA, I hope it'll be IN, MO, MT, NC or ND but it will probably be CO, OH or VA or maybe FL

[Cosmocat]

35. As a PA person, that is what I keep telling people here ...

I am not going to go over it all again, but the media has MUCH overhyped Pa as a "swing state."

One poll has showed a Tie since April - FOX/Rasmusson, and FOX/Rassuson and Strategic Vision (and R pollster) are the only polls that have showed McCain less than three points down.

A lot of other things to fill in, but out of the gates.

[Stop Cornyn]

37. PA is only called a "swing state" because Obama lost the primary by such a margin, by the same logic

Utah is a swing state because McCain lost so badly there.

[sandnsea]

22. Colorado n/t

[abumbyanyothername]

23. I agree with the "no single states" line

And I think Obama is going to win in a landslide.

Especially, if WE get on board the certain win mentality and start acting as gracious victors and treating our friends and families with differing points of view as respected citizens and welcome to jump the bandwagon at any time (before or after the election).

[Reader Rabbit]

30. The state of intoxication

It has helped us survive the last eight years with our sanity (relatively) intact.

[ps1074]

33. PA, MI, OH

there is no single state to decide this election. I believe PA, MI and OH are the most important states. If Obama win them all, McCain is done.

[Hepburn]

44. Ditto. n/t

[goddess40]

36. The one you live in

because that's the only state you can really work to influence.

[nsd]

38. Ohio.

I think Ohio is the bellwether. If Obama is doing well enough to turn Ohio from red to blue, it's hard to imagine him losing Pennsylvania and Michigan. If he wins all three, then he wins period.

[ccharles000]

39. Ohio

[windbreeze]

40. The last state to be called for either ticket on election night

with enough electoral votes to make a difference in the outcome...It makes NO difference which state it is...IF the race is close...and IF the race isn't close...then NO one state is more important than another, except for the loser....Perhaps the question should have been, which state do we think they will try to steal...and I would say multiple...wb

[emilyg]

42. Ohio

[AlinPA]

43. California.

[Tribetime]

45. Florida

[GodlessBiker]

47. Delaware...NO WAIT...Ohio.

[skooooo]

48. Indiana! If it goes blue..it's OVAH!

[DangerDave921]

49. Not PA. It is CO

I've changed my mind. Colorado is the biggest harbinger of what will happen in November.

You can all stop debating now. :)