Road to 270 - 9/15/08 - Obama - 306, McCain 232

[MadBadger]

Note that this is my personal map telling where I think the race is as of today. If the election were held today, this is how I see things shaping out.

Here is how I see things now. I have Obama winning 306 to McCain's 232. I had him winning 273-265 last week. This week, I moved Virginia and Ohio back into the Obama column. There was a Quinnipiac poll that said Obama was up 5 in Ohio and today a SUSA poll had him up 4 in VA, after having him down 2 last week. Obviously these states can move back and forth and there are polls showing different things, but at the moment, I think Obama takes those two states.

[Vinca]

1. I sure hope you're right. nt

[rfranklin]

2. Still too friggin' close...we need Obama by 400 or more...

I worry about how much they will be able to disenfranchise Dem voters, not to mention flip the votes on the computerized machines programmed to add two for McCain for every Obama vote.

[MadBadger]

6. Obama by 400 or more?

Good luck with that one.

[msallied]

10. Too close? Hell, I'll be happy to eke out just over 270 right now.

[SuperTrouper]

3. I would not award OH to Obama just yet, otherwise agree.

[tekisui]

4. I don't disagree with any of that.

We'll talk about NC in a few weeks. ;-)

[five_horizons]

5. I like it

Ohio will be blue. I also feel pretty good about Florida. I like what I'm seeing and hearing down here.

Amazingly we don't even need Florida or Ohio. But if we can manage pull out just one or the other, it's game over.

[yellowcanine]

7. Well if the election were held TOMORROW, Obama would likely get over 400 EVs.

With all the bad economic news going down. But rats we have to wait until November.

[grantcart]

8. next to flip Indiana and Nevada

[five_horizons]

9. Indiana will be tough

I think we have a decent shot at Nevada though.

[chiefofclarinet]

13. I think Nevada is more likely than Ohio or Virginia

We have California trying to flip Nevada, versus Maryland trying to flip Virginia. Not to mention the size of Nevada is small and Virginia is pretty big.

[1corona4u]

11. Honestly, despite the polls and the numbers

people have put out there, I think Obama has Indiana and Florida as well. But we'll have to wait and see...

[Robbins]

12. Obama

I take going to 270 this way.

1:Keep the Kerry states.Despite more close polls(which just reflected the Palin Bounce that Is
receding) he will win most.With Biden he will win PA.The 2 to be concerned with are MI,and NH.
NH because of Independents,and In Michigan Mccain will campagin by blaming Democrats for the
Economy.

2:Take back the Gore States of Iowa,and New Mexico.Iowa Is pretty much In the bank.NM can be won.
Once the Palin bounch fades Obama will up again.

3:Win Colorado or Virginia

4:Try to take Ohio.Mccain loses there he Is done.

5:Don't write off Missouri.Despite what pundits say It can be won.Remember during the primarys
Obama was suspose to lose by double degits he won by 1.

6:Nevada,Indiana,and Florida are still worth competing.While Inless the election breaks heavily
for him they may not be won but they are possabiltys.

7:Go to West Virginia.During the Palin bounce a poll only had Mccain up 5.That State could be In
Play If some time Is spent there.

[Witchy_Dem]

14. Still

that's a LOT of red...

[KingFlorez]

15. I think this is very possible

I still think Nevada is flippable, though.

[geek tragedy]

16. At some point, doesn't this just become

cherry-picking. Most polls show McCain ahead in VA, and at least half show him ahead in OH as well.

[dtotire]

17. I hope you're right but I think it may be optimistic n/t

[MadBadger]

18. Sure its optimism, but its based upon polls.

[geek tragedy]

23. SUSA has McCain winning OH.

Also, I'd wait for Rasmussen to release it's other polls today before putting together a map.

[MadBadger]

25. I saw what SUSA put out today, and I did this before that.

I also could care less what a Fox News/Rasmussen survey says.

[flamingdem]

19. What do you think is key to winning of these CO, NM, FL, VA, OH

and why, and which are not key, thanks.

[MadBadger]

20. I think winning CO and NM are key.

Its very close there, but Id say he's up in both states. If he wins the Kerry states, plus Iowa which he is doing very well in, and wins those states, she will win.

[flamingdem]

21. Why are those states more important than OH or FL?

Is FL considered a probable loss now?

[MadBadger]

22. I think because those are toss up states that for the most part we have seen Obama lead in.

Ohio goes back and forth, and for the most part, Obama has been trailing in Florida. But Obama is usually ahead in the polls in NM and CO. So I think that those are the most important states, because if he wins both of those and holds the Kerry states, he will win the election. Iowa is looking like a solid blue state more and more now.

[geek tragedy]

24. Obama simply hasn't connected with voters in FL and OH

on a personal level the way he has with Western voters.