Okay, what's the deal with cell only users being polled?

[harry_pothead]

I've heard it both ways -- that cell-only users are being counted and that cell-only users are not being counted.

I'm a cell-only user who has never been polled. But that's just anecdotal.

Anyone got any good info on this?

[d_b]

1. ...

o.0

[Unsane]

2. The depressing cell phone issue...ugh

I remember in '04 many here were adamant that Kerry would win because pollsters weren't 'sampling cell phone users.' I hope this isn't a repeat.

[Cooley Hurd]

3. Kerry DID win...

Unfortunately, Ohio was rigged by Ken Blackwell...:thumbsdown:

[Unsane]

5. The GOP does cheat.

I'll give you that. Was the actual outcome of the election swung because of it? Who knows.

In any event, why didn't Kerry, BEFOREHAND, make sure impropriety was snuffed out? I hope Obama takes a more proactive approach.

[chascarrillo]

7. In 2004, maybe. In 2008, I think it is a valid argument, One-sixth of US households have no landline

You really can't dismiss that possibility.

[xanadu1979]

4. not sure, probably depends on the poll

I heard a guy from CNN on the Bill Press show the other day who said that their polling firm has experimented with polling cell-only citizens and that the results were the same as the land-line based polls.

I think it's a grave mistake to think that the polls don't matter because of people who only have cell phones.

Edit:
Here's an article from a few years back on the subject.
http://pewresearch.org/pubs/80/cell-only-voters-not-very-different

[BzaDem]

6. IT DOESN'T MATTER.

Pollsters that don't use cell phones use weighting to correct for this. For example, if 20% of the electorate were young voters (going 2-1 for Obama), but a random sample only picked up 10% (because of the cell phone issue), they just multiply that demographic (very favorable to Obama) by 2. The cell phone myth keeps getting repeated over and over and keeps getting everyone's hopes up.

[moondust]

8. Doesn't it cost cell phone users airtime to call them?

If that's the case I doubt the public would accept it and the pollsters probably know that so they don't do it.

Also, even younger voters who do have a landline may not be home much of the time to answer it which would seem to suggest under-polling of that strongly Obama age group.

[casus belli]

9. The underlying problem is, there's too much weight placed on polling...

It is, in my opinion, nothing more than an appeal to those with herd mentality to follow. Were the not the case, you wouldn't see campaigns using it as part of their sales pitch.

That's not to say I don't think polling doesn't have any use. It clearly does, I just don't like how the data is used as a persuasive tool. And particularly among low information voters, it's a very dangerous tool.

edit: I realize this is a slight diversion from the purpose of the topic. My apologies in advance :)