Number-crunching pollster sees decisive Obama win

[kpete]

Wednesday, September 10, 2008
Number-crunching pollster sees decisive Obama win

A pollster whose mathematical model has correctly predicted every winner of the White House popular vote since 1988 is banking on a decisive victory for Democrat Barack Obama in November.

Emory University political scientist Alan Abramowitz said Wednesday that according to his "time for change" model, Obama would secure 54.3 percent of the popular vote against 45.7 percent for Republican John McCain.

That margin would virtually guarantee a crushing victory for the Democrat in the state-by-state electoral college that actually selects the next president, Abramowitz said.

more at:
http://news.yahoo.com/s/afp/20080910/ts_afp/usvotepollemory

[texastoast]

1. Thank you!

:woohoo:

Now if we can just get the Senate!

[Median Democrat]

2. Numbers Are Sexist!

[RoadRage]

3. does this model account for a black and female candidate?

I'm just curious... because I think those two things can really be a difference maker, and i'm not sure how you mathmatically calculate for racism, or sexism.

[varun]

4. I always thought Obama would trounce McCain

These numbers look right to me.

[ChimpersMcSmirkers]

5. It's a trap!