Examining this morning's electoral vote map at
http://www.electoral-vote.com it occurs to me that the Republicans might just not be able to steal this one.
The map this morning is about as bad for Obama as it's likely to get, right after McCain's convention bounce and before the debates. As of this morning, Obama has 281 electoral votes and McCain has 230.
The interesting thing? That's with most of the likely sources of fraud already out of the picture. Ohio is already going for McCain on this map, and Florida is a toss-up.
If we give Florida to McCain, Obama is leading 281 to 257. If we give up Colorado (where the election head mysteriously "retired" recently causing some here to suspect fraud in the making) then it's Obama 272, McCain 266, and still a win.
Now let's discuss North Dakota. This map gives it to Obama 43%-40%. Historically, however, the Dakotas don't vote for Democrats nowadays, so we should take it out of play. That gives us a 269-269 tie, and with the Democrats holding a majority of Congressional delegations, Obama should win the House vote 26-24. (I'll offer thoughts on that, and some possible scenarios, in another post later on when I've had a chance to look at more numbers.)
The remaining Obama states that could be flipped? Unlikely. With the map at what should be its worst, Nevada is still going for Obama, and I doubt that the state is going to vote for a President who vows to dump nuclear waste in Yucca Mountain as McCain has.
Pennsylvania: Designated "barely Democratic." But, since the days of Ike, the Keystone State has only voted Republican in the landslides of 1972, 1980, 1984, and the Dukakis debacle of 1988. It was stubbornly for Gore and Kerry, and with the economy in the tank should stay for Obama. I really doubt this one's going to be close enough to steal (especially with massive registration and GOTV drives in Pittsburgh and Philadelphia).
New Mexico: we hold a 9 point lead, and with new registrations should hold it against any fraud.
New Hampshire: shouldn't be as close as the map says it is, especially with the Shaheen/Sununu senate race. Although historically Republican, it was a Kerry state and a Clinton state, and I think we can count on this one, but I'll still leave it in the "barely" column.
No other state on the map should conceivably flip away from Obama before election day. Virginia may swing to Obama, but since it's McCain's on this map, I'll leave it out of contention.
There you have it: to win this one, the Republicans have to steal Colorado and New Hampshire, and North Dakota has to legitimately flip back to McCain. If they can steal Colorado but not New Hampshire, it goes to the House and an Obama victory. If they can steal New Hampshire but not Colorado, Obama wins 274-264.
With a good performance in the debates, and a lot of hard work on our part in campaigning and GOTV, this one should still be ours.
Don't be discouraged, but remember: fight like you're 15 points down, even when you're 15 points up. Let's get out there and win this one.
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