NC POLL: McCreep 48, Obama 44.

[jefferson_dem]

New Poll Finds McCain With Narrow Lead In North Carolina
By Eric Kleefeld - September 10, 2008, 9:25AM

A new poll suggests that yesterday's SurveyUSA poll of North Carolina, which gave McCain a 20-point lead, might have been an outlier -- though a new poll this morning still shows him ahead there.

The new numbers from Public Policy Polling (D), which is based in North Carolina: McCain 48%, Obama 44%, with a ±3.9% margin of error. PPP's Tom Jensen immediately set to work on his own poll after he saw the North Carolina survey.

The key difference here is party identification. SurveyUSA's numbers had self-identified Dems making up 40% and GOPers at 41%, roughly in line with the 2004 exit poll. PPP's numbers have Dems at 49% and Republicans at 36%, seemingly consistent with an overall increase in Democratic registration and identification across the country over the last four years.

The only way to settle the question of which party ID breakdown is right is to wait for the actual voting.

http://tpmelectioncentral.talkingpointsmemo.com/2008/09/new_poll_finds_mccain_with_nar.php

[Maven]

1. Didn't another poll have McAnus up by 20 the other day?

In which case, this is good news?

[jefferson_dem]

3. Yep. That's the SUSA survey discussed in the OP.

The difference is largely the result of SUSA using more Repugs in their sample than PPP.

[Maven]

5. Woops!

Should have read more closely.

Thanks. :hi:

[jefferson_dem]

12. No probs, Harvey.

:hi:

[Curtland1015]

4. Well, good-"ish", it's more of an honest look at the region

...than a bump in any way for Obama. Either way, he's still behind.

[timber84]

2. This is why I am canvassing this weekend in NC!

This state is still very much in play!

[SIMPLYB1980]

6. We can do this. NC will be a blue state!

[speedoo]

7. Cool. RNC bounce is no more.

Keeping NC close forces McSame to defend there.

[ClarkUSA]

8. PPP predicted NC primary results closely while SUSA blew it bigtime

I'd trust PPP. Also, Team Obama is shifting volunteers from GA to NC for good reason (their internal polls must look good). ;)

[ginnyinWI]

9. If Obama/Biden and all of us keep on going this way,

this election will be a sweep. :)

Pay no attention to the pundits who have this race tied. They want a horse race, first, last and always. Pay attention to the electoral votes Obama's got locked up. He only needs something like 27 more to win.

[Dawgs]

10. I think Obama can take NC if a large majority of college students vote.

Remember, there are at least three major universities(Duke, North Carolina, Wake Forest) in NC.

[SIMPLYB1980]

13. Don't forget ECU, NC State, and ASU!

[timber84]

15. Go App!

My oldest son is a freshman there this fall!

[SIMPLYB1980]

17. He will love it. That's where I got my degree from. Great school and great people.

I hope he got into a better room than I did my freshman year. I was in Coltrane. Smallest dorms on campus. 10' by 12' is to small for two people, but I was hardly every in my room so it wasn't so bad just a place to lay my head.

[timber84]

19. He's in Lovill

was just renovated, very nice!

[Mother Of Four]

16. Don't forget MOC-

It's got satellite campuses all over the place now. Even though they are a "Baptist" college, we had some of the first and second years over for cake ( Heheheh yeah yeah I'm sneaky, forensic students that wanted to talk to officer hubby got plied with double layer chocolate cake, butter cream center and a whipped choc glaze. I had them in the palm of my hand. )


They nommed the cake and nodded while I talked about Obama, they are young enough that we got to them early. We believe in teaching integrity to the new Crim Justice and Forensic students before the dirty ones get to them.

We may not be allowed to put signs up (It's viewed as the PD endorsing a candidate and unethical) or place stickers on our car- but we're quietly talking. Seems to be working :D

[progressoid]

11. "...settle the question of which party ID breakdown is right is to wait for the actual voting."

Yep.

[Minimus]

14. I live in NC and have been working the phone banks - the Obama

campaign coordinator working in my small, very red, rural town says they are optimistic.

I love the fact that Obama's people are reaching out to areas that are usually ignored.

When I volunteered for the Kerry campaign and made calls to registered Dems and the vast majority stated they were voting for Bush. (BTW in the South being a registered Dem doesn't mean you are really a Dem)- The calls I am making for the Obama campaign are also to registered Dems and the vast majority state they are voting for Obama!

[Blackhatjack]

18. I've lived and watched NC politics for over 30 years and I can tell you this...

Party registration for Dems is significantly higher than that of Republicans.

Legislative races and Council of State positions go heavily in the Democrats favor, while races for the Governorship and Judicial Positions tend to favor Republicans.

'Crossover voting' among 10-15% of Democrats occurs quite frequently according to the issues highlighted.

And don't discount the 'military vote' in this state, given we have significant bases, soldiers and families here.

IMHO the military families are very upset, but they don't speak out publicly for obvious reasons. The typical 'crossover voters' of the past are very upset with the economy and the war. Democrats are solidly behind Obama and many Republicans are not 'electrified' to get out and vote.

For those reasons, I believe the polling done in NC understates the support for Obama, and the disaffected Republicans this election cycle.

NC is definitely in play, and when you see an Obama lead in NC polls that really means Obama's support here is much larger than that.

[WI_DEM]

20. This seems more reasonable than the Survey USA poll.