In Play: CO, FL, IA, MO, NM, NV, NC, OH, VA, MI, MN, NH, PA, WI

[babylonsister]

IN PLAY
Colorado, Florida, Iowa, Missouri, New Mexico, Nevada, North Carolina, Ohio, Virginia, Michigan, Minnesota, New Hampshire, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin

Rival Tickets Are Redrawing Battlegrounds
Chris Carlson/Associated Press

Senator Barack Obama speaks at a town hall meeting in Terre Haute, Ind., on Saturday.


By PATRICK HEALY and MICHAEL COOPER
Published: September 6, 2008


Fresh from the Republican convention, Senator John McCain’s campaign sees evidence that his choice of Gov. Sarah Palin as his running mate is energizing conservatives in the battleground of Ohio while improving its chances in Pennsylvania and several Western states that Senator Barack Obama has been counting on.

Mr. Obama’s campaign intends to focus heavily on the economy, especially in light of the mounting job losses, and to keep up the effort to tie the McCain-Palin ticket to the policies of President Bush. It is banking on holding all the states Senator John Kerry won in 2004 and picking up the additional electoral votes it needs by flipping some combination of Ohio, Nevada, New Mexico, Colorado, Indiana, Iowa and Virginia into the Democratic column.

With just over eight weeks left until Election Day, the two sides are settling into an unusually broad set of state-by-state face-offs, with an increased focus on turning out supporters and tough decisions looming about where to invest time and money for new advertisements.

Yet the two men issued a joint statement on Saturday announcing that they would appear together at the World Trade Center site on Thursday, an idea that aides said originated last week when Mr. Obama called Mr. McCain to congratulate him on accepting the nomination.

Aides to Mr. Obama said the campaign was preparing advertisements tailored to issues important in specific states, like ones about the auto industry in Michigan and nuclear waste in Nevada, even as the Democrats pull back ads in Georgia, a reliably Republican state he had sought to put in play by investing heavily in registering new Democratic voters.

Strategists say that Mr. McCain can now count on a more motivated social conservative base to help him in areas like southern Ohio, where the 2004 race was settled.

While fortified turnout from this base is probably not enough to assure victory for Mr. McCain, strategists said, it would be very difficult for him to win without it. In that sense, Ms. Palin’s presence on the ticket — depending on how her candidacy fares under the scrutiny it is receiving — could be vital.

more...

http://www.nytimes.com/2008/09/07/us/politics/07strategy.html?_r=2&partner=rssnyt&emc=rss&oref=slogin&oref=slogin

[Eric J in MN]

1. Minnesota will go for Obama.

I donated another $300 to Obama-Biden yesterday.

[chiefofclarinet]

44. So will Iowa

In the last CNN poll (yes, even the Crappy Noisy Nut-jobs), Obama lead Iowa by 15%. He was even winning in Western Iowa, which should be annexed by Nebraska (it's THAT conservative over there), which I thought no Democrat could.

From personal experience, I know only two people that are voting McCain in Iowa, and both are reluctantly. One is a libertarian that was a Ron Paul freak (I should mention Bob Barr to her...) and the other is a paleo-conservative that (for some reason) refuses to think about Obama. However, I know at least 10 Obama/Biden supporters, ranging from those that think the Dem ticket is the lesser of two evils to those that are crazily fanatical about the ticket. It should not be a contest here. I'm still going to help the Dems this year, though.

The states we need to worry about are PA & MI (keeping them), OH & FL (taking them back), and VA & CO (getting it). Flipping NV, MT, ND, SD, NM, MO, IN, and NC will also be important, but less likely to make a difference in who gets the win.

[AllieB]

2. I'm betting NH, MN and VA vote Obama.

Don't rule out theft though.

[graywarrior]

22. Palin seems to have pissed off a lot of independent and republicans in

my neck of the woods. I canvassed today and that's the scoop I got from 3 republicans and a lot more independents.

[Odin2005]

24. The Pukes can't steal Minnesota!

We have optically scanned pen-and-paper ballots and we can register on election day at the polling place.

[graywarrior]

38. That's the beauty of NH too, being able to register on election day

There's a ton of new voters here, mostly 18 year olds supporting Obama and they're not even registered yet. This is why polls mean shit right now.

[Muttocracy]

3. yes - if you must watch polls, watch the swing state polls that predict electoral college! nt

[d_b]

4. if it's close

we win. The enthusiasm has been on our side for a few years now. Our primaries and caucuses were unlike anything we've ever seen; as is Obama's ground game. And last I knew, we have the independents. If the battleground polls remain within the margin of error, we'll take this big.

That's my take anyway.

[bullwinkle428]

5. Indiana must be on the radar, as the campaign seems to be

spending a fair amount of time there as well!

[1corona4u]

12. My sister lives there, and this morning she said...

that there were a lot of people who will vote for Obama, but they are calling it; "the Biden ticket", lol, so whatever gets them to the polls, I am OK with.

[Proud Liberal Dem]

43. If letters to the editor of the Indianapolis Star are any indication

There are more than a few people here in Indiana whom stated that they would be voting for McSame if not but for his selection of Palin as his running mate and whom will now be voting for Obama. McSame is losing my mother-in-law and will probably lose my own mother's vote to Obama and both of them are lifelong (but less whacked out) Republicans because of Palin.

[suston96]

6. Don't wanna be accused of spamming but look at these maps......

....every few days. They include averages of many pollsters.

I suggest a daily or frequent stop at these poll AVERAGES....

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/maps/obama_vs_mccain/

http://www.electoral-vote.com/

http://www.pollster.com/polls/

http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/


I believe that Nevada, Colorado, and New Hampshire will decide who wins.

Let McCain steal Ohio and Florida as his predecessor did.

[Cha]

7. Is that the Coolest pic or what!

Indiana!

[Gabi Hayes]

8. Iowa? fifteen point Obama lead a few days ago. WTF has changed?

was that a big outlier?

[wmbrew0206]

15. Iowa is safe for Obama.

McCain has consistently voted against farm bills and ethonol, which means this state is not in play for McCain.

There is a reason that McCain didn't even bother to spend much time in Iowa for the rethug primary.

[chiefofclarinet]

46. As a Iowan, I agree

There is no way McCain will take Iowa. In addition to what you've said and what I said above (in post #44), Obama is senator of neighboring Illinois. Eastern Iowa likes Illinois (except during the U of IA v. U of IL football games), and Western Iowa has very few people in it, so it doesn't matter. Anyways, 3 of the 5 congress-critters are Dems, including two freshmen reps that beat long-time GOP incumbents in 2006. Plus, 2004 was a fluke. If we exported one county to South Dakota (Sioux County), Iowa would've gone to Kerry. (751,957 for GWB v. 741,898 for JK to 737,728 for GWB v. 739,639 for JK)

[wmbrew0206]

9. It is going to come down to NH, CO, NV, OH, MI, and VA

Obama: MN, WI, NM, IA, PA
McCain: Fl, MO, NC

That leaves NH, CO, NV, OH, MI, and VA

If McCain can't hold both VA and OH it is over.

If he losses one or the other, he has to flip MI and carry CO, NV, and NH.

PA is the state that I'm keeping a close eye on. If PA starts getting close, then I'll start getting worried.

[blue_onyx]

16. Yes, McCain really needs Michigan

But I think Michigan will be a stronger Obama state than some think. I also agree...we need to keep an eye PA too.

[wmbrew0206]

26. I'm worried about MI

With the Detorit Democractic Mayor resiogning and pleading guilty and resigning, I'm worried that might effect the election.

[blue_onyx]

28. I wouldn't worry too much

The mayor wasn't too well liked anymore so him resigning was a good thing. He won't be the focus come November. Also, with a new mayor, there will be someone available to campaign for Obama. The economy is the issue in Michigan so that will be the focus, not the mayor's scandal.

[JoshDem]

20. Our chances may be better for a Michigan.Colorado combination

We are losing in Ohio and probably Virginia. Due to hispanic vote we may have a chance in Colorado.

[malik flavors]

10. I think it's time for Obama to give up on IN, NC, and MO. Concentrate on the others.

[greguganus]

31. I'm in NC and I hate to say it, but I think it will go to McLame. n/t

[Turn CO Blue]

35. No giving up. Make McCain spend money and work hard

to defend his supposedly safe territories. We have oodles more money than McCrash does! Buys lots of ads in all the toss up states. Send out the canvassers and ramp up the ground game.

Scrape out every vote we can so that nobody ever writes off a toss up state again. If we flip even one or two, it will be well worth it.

[RayOfHope]

42. Give up on MO? No way. There is a very popular Dem running for Gov. That will help with turnout n/t

[Neshanic]

11. Comforting thoughts. Are we missing Guam?

[blue_onyx]

13. I think most of those states will go Obama

The only ones I'm not so sure about are MO, NC, and FL.

[Overseas]

14. I am really so very happy this time to see the real 50 state strategy

in effect.

That's been great. Because we know there is a lot more Democratic sentiment in the country today than the corporate media wants to acknowledge.

And if the electoral college is ever eliminated, we want to be ready to claim our offices.

[rosesaylavee]

17. And I thought McCain was behind last month in Arizona too. n/t

[Michigan-Arizona]

41. Michigan-Arizona

I was born & raised in Michigan. I don't see them winning Michigan without stealing it, making it look close will make it easier to do. The state of the economy there is just aweful! I now live in Tucson Arizona, with all mine & hubby's driving about here I've seen only 1 McCain bumper sticker & have not seen any yard's sign's for him either. We have seen lot's of Obama sticker's though. I talk alot to stranger's when I'm at the grocery store, gas station, etc... I've yet to find someone who is not had enough of the repugs. First it was Florida then Ohio so will they need to combine the electoral count's of a few state's to equal them to steal it once again?

[madmom]

18. I'm seeing more Obama yard signs in my neck of the woods NW OHIO, which

is usually repug territory I am simply amazed every time I go to town (I live out of the city limits) I see new ones!

[d_b]

19. man

I've seen more Obama signs in ALASKA of all places.

[BumRushDaShow]

21. PA is going to go to Obama

There are now > 1,000,000 MORE registered democrats in PA than repukes. PA went for Kerry in 2004 and Gore in 2000.

[Junkdrawer]

27. The lever voting machines are gone...

In PA, an audit trail is ILLEGAL.

[BumRushDaShow]

37. You don't know the Rendell attack-dog machine very well.

Despite his knee-capping of his own party's nominee, he is as rough as Rove, as is the political machine in Philadelphia. So an audit trail will become "unnecessary".

[Junkdrawer]

40. Rendell was and is a big Deibold pusher...

I've tracked the process the whole way along.

I don't trust him as far as I can throw him.

[BumRushDaShow]

49. I don't trust him either and he is close to having burned all his bridges

but he may still leave a trapdoor for himself in the party.

[BlooInBloo]

47. He's *still* kneecapping Obama. It won't matter though.

[BlueInPhilly]

36. Don't forget that folks register in PA as Dems so they can vote in the Primaries!

They did a news package on this - a lot of shameless GOPs switched to Democrat so they could vote for Hillary. We're one of the states where you can only vote in the primaries if you are registered with a particular party.

Does not mean much in actual elections - and in Montgomery County, I'm seeing more McCain lawn signs and car stickers. Am I disheartened? Not yet.

[BumRushDaShow]

39. One of my sisters lives in Montco and I live on the border

and I see nothing but Obama signs on this end of Montco. And these signs were up since the primaries and have STAYED UP through the summer. My sister has lapsed repukes on her street - one who was a very strident Rash Limpball dittohead and used to debate my brother-in-law all the time for hours (their hobby). But this past spring, after having been out of work for 6 months, the guy broke down in disgust and said he had had enough with Shrub and his folly. He is all Obama now and has signs all over his yard, in his windows, and on his cars. He has been canvassing on their street for the Democratic Party.

[Odin2005]

23. Minnesota, Wisconsin, Iowa, and Pennsylvania are solidly BLUE, not in play.

The normally very Red DAKOTAS and MONTANA, however, are in play!!! :wow:

[Bravo Zulu]

25. I live in South Western Pennsylvania

I guarantee Pa. will vote for Obama/Biden, or else!

[JoshDem]

34. I think you are right but only because of overwheming Philly/Pitt vote

Rest of state is for McCain

[BlooInBloo]

29. They're just making shit up to have a horserace.

Best available models:

http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/

[Fighting Donkey]

30. North Dakota and Montana, dammit!

But Obama and Biden know that, and will be campaigning there.

[WinkyDink]

32. Who on earth keeps saying this about Pennsylvania?! Stop the MADNESS!

[BlooInBloo]

45. 1/2 of those states aren't actually in play. They're just making shit up.

[ClayZ]

33. K and R

[Hawkeye-X]

48. Colorado is already firmly in Obama's end.

McCain is down to talking to the fundies in Colorado Springs, which is no help. That's McCain's base, and about all of 35,000 of them - We have more. Lots more. Western Slope is already going for Obama. Denver is going for Obama. The Northern Colorado is slowly but surely (with the help of defeat of the Bitch from Ft. Morgan) going to Obama.

We'll have a brand new Democratic US Senator, 5 of 7 Democratic Representatives, and of course, a brand new Democratic President of the US.

Hawkeye-X