The Daily Widget – Fri 9/5 – O-329, M-209 – Indiana Tightens; North Dakota Turns Blue

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Fri Sep-05-08 06:41 AM
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The Daily Widget – Fri 9/5 – O-329, M-209 – Indiana Tightens; North Dakota Turns Blue

1. ANALYSIS

Partisan polls released from both sides show North Dakota going light blue and Alaska going strong red today. United Transportation Union of North Dakota conducted the North Dakota poll showing Obama leading by 3 points, with 17% Undecided. American Viewpoint shows McCain leading by 24 points in Alaska. Other polls in these states will be needed before these polls could possibly be considered believable, though. A quick Google search found American Viewpoint getting it horribly wrong in 2002 for a congressional race in Florida. American Viewpoint had one candidate leading by 26 points a couple days before the election, but the other candidate won by 21 points. That’s a 47-point swing in two days for the Roberts-Shaw race in 2002.

Howey-Gauge conducted a poll over last weekend in Indiana. After Obama’s acceptance speech and McCain’s selection of Palin as VP, McCain is leading in Indiana by a mere two points. That’s a 50,000-vote difference between the two candidates.

What’s interesting about the Howey-Gauge Indiana poll is that they released percentages polled for demographic groups and they’re very close to what I project for Indiana. We both have a Dem/Rep split of 43%-48% and an African-American overall vote percentage of 8%. These are significant increases for Democrats this year. We differ slightly with two other demographics, though. Howey-Gauge projects a 1%-of-total turnout for Hispanic voters, while I project a slightly larger turnout of 1.6%-of-total. And they split the female/male vote at 51% to 49% of the total, while I have the female vote at 52% of the pie. Women and minority groups could win it for Obama in Indiana this year.

All three of the states polled are part of Obama’s Eighteen. The Alaska poll brings Obama’s trend line down a bit and moves McCain’s up (see Figure 5c below), but Obama is still ahead in the O18 states.

The Wigand Electoral Average ticks up 0.56 points today to 53.72, thanks to North Dakota. Trading for the Wigand states is up about 6 points, and trading for Obama’s Eighteen jumps 14 points today.

2. NEW STATE POLLS

Alaska

Obama 33, McCain 57 (American Viewpoint, 9/2, +/- 5.0, 400 RV)
Indiana

Obama 43, McCain 45 (Howey-Gauge, 8/30, +/- 4.1, 600 LV)
North Dakota

Obama 43, McCain 40 (ND United Transportation Union, 8/27, +/- 5.0, 400 LV)

Scale:

Strong Obama (10% or greater)

Weak Obama (5% to 9%)

Lean Obama (0% to 4%)

Lean McCain (0% to 4%)

Weak McCain (5% to 9%)

Strong McCain (10% or greater)

3. ELECTORAL VOTE SNAPSHOT

^ FIGURE 3a. This graph shows the daily tracking of Obama’s projected electoral votes from three sources. 270 is a majority of the electoral votes. The blue line shows daily tracking from 538.com, which projects what the outcome should be on election day. The red line shows daily tracking from Electoral-Vote.com, which shows a current snapshot of Obama’s electoral progress if the undecideds break evenly. The green line is my own projection, and it shows a current snapshot of Obama’s electoral progress if the undecideds break the same way as the swing states. A trend line is used (dashed green line) to show the average progress since May 19 and possible route for the next seven days.

^ FIGURE 3b. This graph shows Obama’s green line and red line from the previous graph, and compares it to John Kerry’s 2004 progress (orange line) as shown from Electoral-Vote.com. (Both the red line and the orange line show data from Electoral-Vote.com)

^ FIGURE 3c. This chart organizes all the state polls into groups categorized by how much a certain candidate is leading. “Strong” is used to indicate a candidate leading by 10 points or greater in a certain state. “Weak” is used to indicate a candidate leading between 5 and 9 points in a certain state. “Lean” is used to indicate a candidate leading between 0 and 4 points in a certain state. A total of electoral votes for each category is given at the bottom of each column.

4. POPULAR VOTE SNAPSHOT

^ FIGURE 4a. I am projecting 126,750,000 million votes on election day, which is the total 2004 votes plus population growth for each state. A total projected popular vote is calculated for each candidate based on projected votes on election day this year multiplied by each state’s current poll results. This graph shows the daily tracking of the popular vote calculations.

5. OBAMA’S EIGHTEEN

^ FIGURE 5a. The “Obama Eighteen” is the group of 18 states where the Obama campaign is concentrating much of its efforts this year. This widget shows how the candidates will do if the undecideds nationwide break the same way as the swing states. Each of the eighteen swing states are listed below the indicator’s current percentage of the total 1800 possible. The closing figures on Intrade are shown next to each state, with a column to show the change from the previous day. The scale for these is 0 to 100, with 50 being a majority. The number of electoral votes for each state is shown in the left margin, and the most recent polling for each state is shown in the far right column.

^ FIGURE 5b. This graph shows the daily tracking of “Obama’s Eighteen” swing states total from the Obama’s Eighteen widget above. To show Obama’s progress in the swing states, divide the latest closing figure by 1800.

^ FIGURE 5c. This graph plots all of the state polling results for Obama’s Eighteen swing states, and displays a trend line to illustrate each candidate’s progress in these states as a group.

6. WIGAND ELECTORAL AVERAGE

^ FIGURE 6a. The Wigand Electoral Average is our own indicator, and shows how the candidates will do if the undecideds nationwide break the same way as the swing states. Each of the twelve swing states are listed below the indicator’s current score. The closing figures on Intrade are shown next to each state, with a column to show the change from the previous day. The scale for these is 0 to 100, with 50 being a majority.

^ FIGURE 6b. This graph shows the daily tracking of the swing states total from the Wigand Electoral Average widget above. To show Obama’s progress in the swing states, divide the latest closing figure by 1200.

^ FIGURE 6c. Wigand vs. National Polls, RCP Average and Trading. The Wigand Electoral Average uses both poll averages and trading (swing states), and this graph compares it to the national daily tracking polls from Gallup, Rasmussen and Real Clear Politics (average), as well as the closing trading figures from Intrade (people buying shares with real money) and Rasmussen Markets (people using fake money).

^ FIGURE 6d. This graph shows the daily tracking of each swing state’s closing figure on Intrade. The scale is 0 to 100 with 50 being a majority. I commonly refer to the range from 40.00 to 60.00 as “The Zone” because the states in The Zone are true swing states this year.

The Wigand Electoral Average uses public polling results to determine base states for both parties and a short list of swing states, and combines the actual electoral votes from base states with a weighted Intrade calculation for electoral votes from swing states to derive an average on a scale of 0 to 100. On this scale, greater than 50.00 is considered a win for Barack Obama. An average of 50.10 would yield 270 electoral votes, and an average of 100.00 would yield 538 electoral votes. More Information

7. LINKS AND SOURCES

Yesterday’s Widget
Full Weekly Tracking
Past editions of THE MATH

Sources:
Pollster.com
FiveThirtyEight.com
Electoral-Vote.com
Intrade
Rasmussen Markets
RCP Average
RCP Latest Polls