Worthwhile reading: The Case Against the Case Against Palin (i.e. don't misunderestimate her)

[krkaufman]

(especially noteworthy for anyone predicting a Biden thrashing of Palin in their ONE scheduled debate)

The Case Against the Case Against Palin
(friend of Christopher Orr)
Sep. 2, 2008
The New Republic
http://blogs.tnr.com/tnr/blogs/the_plank/archive/2008/09/02/the-case-against-the-case-against-palin.aspx

The folly, of course, turned out to be my own (and Murkowski's), as Palin slaughtered the incumbent in the primary--posting a 30 point margin of victory--and went on to win the general (over a former Democratic governor) without seeming to break a sweat. She then quickly fulfilled an implicit campaign promise by slapping down ExxonMobil, BP, and ConocoPhillips in negotiations over a proposed Alaska natural gas pipeline, even though they, too, by all accounts, were well prepared to dine on her tender little frame. Not bad for a lightweight.

...

What the Republicans missed about Sarah Palin then--and what the Democrats seem poised to miss now--is that she is a true political savant; a candidate with a knack for identifying the key gripes of the populace and packaging herself as the solution. That keen political nose has enabled her to routinely outperform her resume. Nearly two years into her administration, she still racks up approval ratings of 80 per cent or better.

[villager]

1. uh, well, yes, but none of this dirty laundry had been exposed before...

So she's on terra incognito herself...

[gabeana]

2. only problem her approval are not in the 80's

about 15 points lower

[Lucinda]

3. Gonna bookmark. Getting to tired to read. But I did watch a chunk of an 06 debate

last night and she's not bad. She thinks on her feet and presents her views well. I think her performance will have a LOT to do with what topics they are covering. I cant figure out what to expect with Gewn Ifill moderating.

Link to the debate if anyone is interested - I've only seen the first 25 minutes (or so) so far, its supposed to get testy towards the end. (Apx 85 minutes)

http://gregransom.com/prestopundit/2008/09/sarah-palin-debates-tony-knowl.html

[krkaufman]

11. Thanks for the link. I expect her debate performance ...

... is aided by the television background.

[Lucinda]

14. I planned on finishing it tonight, but there is sooo much out there to get caught up on

that I just never got back to it.
And now I'm tooo tired. I do want see it all though AND dig into your op material...

[krkaufman]

23. Too little time in the day. nt

[skooooo]

4. There are liberal Alaskans who like her...

I think she is more complex than what we know so far.

I liked this comment under the article:

"I'm an Alaska voter and not a Palin supporter. But I think there is a lot of truth to this piece. The unnamed source makes too big a deal about the Oil and Gas Commission. Note that the other commissioner whose ethics violations she was concerned about was the State Republican party chair -- that gives you some idea what the role of the commission is. But ratting out the corrupt party chair and resigning was a brilliant move for her. Although Randy Ruedrich is still the state party chair. The old guard has been pushed back but not defeated.

Republicans should have listened to this person when they decided on their strategy to talk about Palin. But instead of saying something like "her capabilities are stronger than her resume, and here are some examples why", they have often tried to puff up her resume in comical ways. They have tried to make a big deal of "CinC of the Alaska National Guard". They have tried listing offices as a sign of leadership, which is bad because when within 15 seconds you are talking about the PTA. It's just a losing approach.

Our local (and right-wing) paper had this headline on top today: "Palin's Potholes: Controversy piles up". It is not clear whether she will end up so far behind in week 1 that she can't ever catch up."

[Alameda]

5. Don't be fooled, she wasn't called "Sara Barracuda" for nothing!

[krkaufman]

13. Though I'm not impressed by her friends' creativity.

Wouldn't "Saracuda" have been more snappy?

[d_b]

6. what they don't tell you

is how many republicans we have in our state, or that the former democratic governor had just lost a senate race in 2004. They don't tell you Murkowski was the most hated governor in the nation at the time (along with the Ohio one). or that it's...alaska--hardly the pulse of the nation. a place where we get 1500+ checks every year and our lifeblood is the oil industry.

[Arctic Dave]

8. You are right about Murkowski. He got himself run off

because he kept thumbing his nose at Alaskans (the gov jet comes to mind) not that Sarah was a great leader, she just wasn't Murkowski.

And don't forget "she's hot". I don't know how many times I heard that. It drove my wife nuts.

[d_b]

9. yea

they're trying to make it sound like she slayed Reagan or some shit.

[d_b]

10. exactly.

the whole "hot" thing. I hear that shit all the time. well, the economy is fucked, but she's hot. We'll see how that plays with people in Ohio, where you dont get 3200 checks.

[krkaufman]

16. Personally, my one hope for the next 8 weeks is that the public becomes aware ....

... of the royalty checks Alaskans receive. Aside from helping people understand Alaskans' opinions on drilling, it might also cause some backlash voting against Palin (out of spite).

[d_b]

18. it's like Carville said

It's a state swimming in money. Politics up here is unlike anything down in the states. It's like a foreign country up here. The mindset, all of it. That's why I didn't doubt the AIP thing for a second.

[krkaufman]

15. And that those checks will be a little bit bigger because of Palin

I think the most relevant piece from the article echoed something else I read today... that she's expect at judging what people are looking for, and takes advantage. (She seems to have turned Obama's popularity to her advantage, eh?)

[d_b]

17. oh

I'm not saying she isn't calculating, but she's no prodigy. It's not like she wiped out the Alaskan establishment--they wiped themselves out. So some milf mom comes along and everyone falls for it.

Again, we'll see how it plays elsewhere. I just don't see it though. I mean if all it takes is a pretty face to win an election, in the world going on outside of alaska, then we're so far gone that there's nothing we can do to save this place.

[DogPoundPup]

26. Her approval rating is down in the 60's now after outsourcing pipeline work to a Canadian Co.

I was going to pull up the article posted about this and did a DU search for it; Palin decided to outsource a 26 billion dollar pipeline project to the Canadians,... and it comes up on the search screen as found, but when I try to go the post, it directs me to the general elections presidential discussion board. What's up with that I wonder?

[rexcat]

7. Alaskan politics is not like that seen on the national scene...

time will tell how tough she is. If the national media smells blood they will go after her and it won't be pretty!

[Union Thug]

12. Maybe, but I doubt her AK experience will translate well

to the national scene.

We are talking about a state with a total population of 700,000 people. We are talking about a state where they have to pay people to live there. Don't get me wrong, I love AK; it's a beautiful state - and I love Whole Wheat Radio! But what passes for political savvy in AK can hardly be compared to the political Metropolis of DC.

I could be wrong, but I'd be surprised.

[TheKentuckian]

20. I think she should be taken seriously as a heart attack

until well after the opposite is proven.

They are blatant about the fact that she is being coached up. They are up to something lame but evil and they are willing to throw Palin on the scrapheap to do it. My instincts say to pretend she fucking Margaret Thatcher, Abigail Adams, Elanor Roosevelt, and Mae West all rolled into one, wrap her into Bush, and hammer her on all fronts until she and McCain are dust.

I don't think anything matters other than to take her seriously, no matter how impossibly difficult it is.

I don't even want Hillary attacking experience. I want Hillary attacking HER and John McCain.

The experience talk is central to what Palin is there for and it must be ignored.

[Bernardo de La Paz]

19. Right all packaging, no substance.

[Ichingcarpenter]

21. 'she's not bad."

Yes she is............. just making a point in this thread.

[kath]

22. Lies. Her approval rating is in the 60s.

People are catching on to her.

[BlooInBloo]

24. "misunderestimate" - well as long as the illiterate crowd is checking in....

:rofl:

[democrat2thecore]

25. I think that was on purpose - didn't Bush use that once? -nt

[BlooInBloo]

28. It's possible (and yes he did.)

[krkaufman]

32. Yes, it's very possible. nt

[krkaufman]

31. Yes, he did. And, yes, the above was intentional. nt

[flamingdem]

27. Recommend. However, she is popular because of the 2,300 yearly oil rebates to Alaskan citizens! nt

[goletian]

29. now that palins on a national stage, shes gonna encounter 30 days of night.

believe that.

[Awsi Dooger]

30. I was the first to warn about this on DU

The day Palin was named. Particularly in regard to her debate vs. Biden. I watched both Alaska debates on CSPAN in '06, one primary and one general, and I've hosted enough debate watching parties to know her style will play very well with apolitical types. That summary is excellent, that she identifies key problems and presents herself as the simple solution. The lousy handicappers here, the ones who still believe, or ever believed, that Palin would step down or be replaced, are focusing on issue specifics and expect Biden to trounce her. That's not the way it works.

However, the posters from Alaska are exactly right that her strengths in 2006 were largely due to situational advantage and a right leaning state, advantage she will not enjoy nationally in this climate. It's not unlike the crap from 2004, when John Kerry was described as a closer, so don't worry. Yeah, as I wrote at the time, he's a closer in a heavily Democratic state. That has no bearing whatsoever against an incumbent in a national race.

BTW, here's a link to the other Palin debate from 2006, the Republican primary debate on CSPAN. This one was very contentious with Frank Murkowski desperately trying to save his job. Palin was all but drowned out by the other two candidates for long stretches. You have to click the video to play:

http://palintology.com/2006/08/08/decision-2006-republican-candidate-round-table/