Let me say this again: A pro-choice GOP VP candidate = 50 state Obama landslide

[Seen the light]

If McCain selects Colin Powell, Joe Lieberman, Tom Ridge, Meg Whitman, or Rudy Giuliani, I won't even need to campaign for Senator Obama any more because it would guarantee an Obama presidency.

I know some of you think that these people are scary because they appeal to independents. Sure. Maybe they do. But the fundies (trust me on this, I'm surrounded by them), will NOT NOT NOT under ANY circumstances vote for McCain if he selects a pro-choice candidate. You don't win by siphoning off a few independent voters if you lose the majority of your base in the process.

Don't fear these people, embrace the rumors about these people being picked. I'd rather have them than Mittens. Not because Mittens is anything special (he too has a NUMBER of negatives he would come with), but McCain would have at least a chance with him. He has NO chance with the pro-choice ones.

[gateley]

1. I read a poll (yeah, I know) where Biden led all the others with

independent and swing voters.

I'm not sure that he'll risk getting a pro-choice VP. Actually, I think he'll do what the powers that be tell him to.

[Kurt_and_Hunter]

2. Quite the opposite.

Each side over-estimates the defection potential on the other side.

The nut right will vote against Obama. Their claims that they won't are demands for concessions, not a meaningful threat.

A pro-choice VP is McCains only shot.

Bush had AWESOME religious-right turnout in 2004. If Bush had lost a few fundies he would have lost to Kerry.

McCain will lose at least that many fundies not matter what, so he cannot win with the religious right.

Once that is recognized a moderate VP is his only chance to win. Not a certainty or even likelihood, but a puncher's chance.

[Seen the light]

3. I'm telling you...they already don't like McCain

The whole "holding the nose" thing they're doing right now to keep a black guy out? Yeah, forget that if a pro-choice candidate gets the nod. They won't vote for him. You wouldn't believe the number of single-issue voters there are in the GOP.

Let's go incredibly conservative and say that a third of evangelical voters that are currently planning to vote for McCain decide not to if he picks someone like Powell. You honestly think that McCain will suddenly pick that number up in the numbers of independents? Not bloody likely.

[40ozDonkey]

5. He had awesome fundy turnout in '04 b/c their '00 support was weak.

That was the area Karl Rove concentrated on to guarantee the White House. Democrats weren't energized in 2000, but there were 9 million more Democratic votes in '04. Rove knew that Dems would show up in '04, so he needed to get the fundies to give him 10 million+.

Without the fundies, they're relegated to about 50 million votes at best. Add to that the lowest Republican identification in 16 years, the highest fund raising numbers from Democrats ever, and a charismatic Democratic candidate with an energized base... they can't just cede the fundies and hope to have a chance. They have to do whatever it takes to kiss Dominionist ass to get that 10 million back. That's the deal they made with the devil for the White House.

I hope to God they try, but the only thing Republicans are skilled at is getting elected, so they won't fuck up that easily. They're gonna need about 64 million votes, and that's not happening if James Dobson stays home.

[Arnold Judas Rimmer]

4. Mittens would win Utah and Idaho for Gramps, but they're pretty damn red anyway.

But will the fundagelicals in the south vote for a "false god worshippin' Mormon who thinks Jesus and Satan are brothers"?

I have my doubts if all the Romney cash and Bush Crime Family backing will be enough to help them out.

[Laura PourMeADrink]

6. Who the hell is Meg Whitman?

[PM7nj]

7. Former CEO of eBay.

I know, right? Crazy.