The Clinton VP pick....help or hurt?

[Uben]

If Obama chose Clinton for VP, would it help more or hurt more? One has to assume that Obama supporters would vote for him either way, but Clinton supporters could be swayed, therefore increasing his percentages. Then there are the independents, whose votes will appear to be a big factor in this election. My take is that they will vote republican or democrat, regardless of the VP choice.

In this scenario, Clinton is the logical choice because it is all positives. Picking anyone else only gives negatives. A pick to appease Obama primary supporters seems less important than appeasing Clinton primary voters because of the percentages involved.

Of course, a presidential election is much more dynamic than this, but I focus on it because we are at the cusp of the VP pick.

If Obama were to choose Clinton as VP, would you change your vote to republican or other?

If he were to pick someone other than Clinton, would it affect your vote?

[jakem]

1. HURT.

[polichick]

2. It would energize the Republican base, and imo we'd lose more than we'd gain.

[scheming daemons]

12. Spot on.

[TheDebbieDee]

36. Oh yes. By all means, our nominees

for President and Vice-President should be people that the repukes will LIKE and RESPECT! }(

[polichick]

37. Since lots of moderate Republicans and indies are voting for - and working for - Obama...

...it makes sense NOT to choose someone who will mess that up for us AND bring out the voters who are presently not inspired to show up.

Clinton is out of it ~ time to move on.

[TheDebbieDee]

47. Clinton is NOT out of it until Sen. Obama makes his announcement!

And furthermore, the mere fact that these unrepentant moderate repukes and indies means that they are smart enough to know that they should be working to elect a Democrat.

It also means that they're smart and rational enough not cut off their noses to spite their "Hillary-hating" faces.

[polichick]

49. Do you have a sedative ready for Saturday??

[TheDebbieDee]

53. I don't need one. I'll be fine with whomever he picks.

As long as it is not a republican!

[blue_onyx]

38. Just wondering...

Do you know of any polls that show Hillary being VP would energize Republicans and cause more to show up at the polls? I hear a lot of people say that but haven't seen a lot of info to back it up. It just seems like something people say but may not be based in fact, like how Hillary said that women and Hispanic voters wouldn't support Obama in the general election (most polls show Obama doing fine with those groups, I believe).

[polichick]

40. No polls but Pat Buchanan is praying for it - that's pretty telling! :)

[blue_onyx]

41. LOL...true

I guess I'm just underwhelmed by the top VP choices so Hillary seems good to me, when compared to them.

[polichick]

43. I'm being pragmatic - Barack needs someone with more foreign policy gravitas...

...than gramps ~ and someone who will call him out on his "noun, verb and POW" crappola!

imo Biden or Clark could take McCain down on this issue.

[blue_onyx]

45. Yes, I see what you're saying.

and having a VP who has foreign policy experience will be useful since that's likely what McCain will go after Obama most on. Biden would be good at going after McCain. Personally, I prefer Wes Clark but it seems he will likely not be the VP.

[Maven]

3. Lemme sum up this thread now.

HELP!

HURT!

HELP!

HURT!

PUMA!

Ignored

Ignored

Deleted subthread

[tekisui]

4. Locking.

[writes3000]

9. LMAO! That's exactly how it plays out. nt

[mkultra]

16. lol, spot on.

[LostinVA]

27. hahahahaha

[faithfulcitizen]

5. Both

and thus a wash, prolly. ;)

[BOSSHOG]

6. I wouldn't care if she were VP nominee but

I think she would be more valuable in the Senate.

[LisaM]

7. It won't change my vote either way

but I would really be enthusiastic with Clinton on the ticket. I'd also seriously enjoy watching her pick apart McCain's VP choice in a debate.

I was just thinking about her a second ago - how many former first ladies have taken that experience to go into politics themselves? I think only Eleanor Roosevelt and Roslynn Carter are her equals for continuing in public service after their husband's terms ended.

[napi21]

8. No I wouldn't change my vote to PUB! I can't imagine anything that

would make me do that! HOWEVER, I think it would harm more than help! My instincts tell me that the vocal crowd of remaining Hillary supporters has gotten quite small, and if they stay home, or vote for Nader, so be it. I believe there are a lot MORE people who would be unhappy with another Clinton in the WH, for a whole lot of different reasons!

[geiger]

10. HURT.

She has proven herself to be a liar and untrustworthy.

[Lucinda]

11. Help. They can easily blow off any campaign criticisms of each other,

it would be seen as a great choice by a large percentage of the party, and I think it would be VERY hard for McCain to cough up a nominee that would be anywhere close to competing with an Obama/Clinton ticket.

And, though I would prefer Hillary, there are others that I think would also be good fits.

[CakeGrrl]

13. You're trying to answer your own question based on your assumptions

If you assume that Obama supporters will support Obama no matter what, but you also assume that a lot of Clinton supporters will only vote for him if Hillary's on the ticket (as some seem to imply here every day), then it might bring those holdouts over.

I'll still vote for him, but I don't think it's a good synergistic fit at all beyond appeasing stubborn holdout voters.

[scheming daemons]

14. Moot

[NYC_SKP]

15. Same as if he chooses Leiberman

He's pick up some votes, lose some votes, and the ticket would be tainted and he'd probably lose.

The Bill and Hillary 21st Century experiment has failed, but the body is still warm and some believe it will come back to life.

:hi:

[paulk]

17. all the polling I've seen shows that it would help

If Obama doesn't pick her, I would still vote for him because he is the Democratic Party nominee. But that would be the only reason. I have never been this unenthusiastic about a Democratic nominee - and I doubt I'm the only Democrat who feels that way.

[truthN08]

18. I'm voting for

Obama period. He is my choice and has always been my choice. She hurts him with independents. This race will be won in the middle not from the base alone. Dems will vote for him it's the indys he's got to try and get. She will fire up the repubs because they have a thing about her.

[paulk]

29. your claim is not backed up by polling

"*Sen. Clinton is polarizing and will rev up the Republican base.

In fact, the data proves the reverse is true: Sen. Clinton has little or no effect on Republican preferences in a race against Sen. McCain -- and she helps Sen. Obama significantly among Democrats.

According to the July 22-23 Fox/Opinion Dynamics poll, in an Obama-McCain head-on match-up, Sen. Obama gets just 74% of the Democrats and 6% of the Republicans. With Sen. Clinton as his running mate vs. a McCain-Romney ticket, Sen. Obama's Democratic vote goes up to 86%--a significant 12% increase. As for Republican voters, rather than getting "revved up" because of Hillary's presence on the ticket, there was no effect at all: The Obama-Clinton ticket gains 3% (from 6% to 9% among Republicans), whereas McCain-Romney gains the same 3% (from 82% to 85%).

So what about independents? An Obama-Clinton ticket appears to gain some strength in this critical swing-voter group. With an Obama-McCain head-on contest, independents are evenly divided, 32%-30%, with Sen. Obama over Sen. McCain. But with an Obama-Clinton ticket vs. a McCain-Romney ticket, the independents favor Obama-Clinton 38%-30%--a statistically significant 6% increase in a crucial voter group."

[Beacool]

52. Hear, hear!!!

Having Hillary on the ticket would have united the party, but around here they don't want to hear it.

[paulk]

54. it will unite the party.

if Obama doesn't pick her, that will mean it's all about him - not the party. Something Hillary is constantly accused of.

I guess we'll find out in a few days, one way or the other.

[JackORoses]

19. HURT... but really not even in the running

[greguganus]

20. HURT. YES. NO. n/t

[nsd]

21. Not relevant.

It's not going to be Clinton. I don't think it was ever going to be Clinton. At this point, it just doesn't matter.

[JVS]

22. Hurt

[highplainsdem]

23. Help, according to polls, including polls of the delegates, who favor her.

DUers, especially those in GDP, are not representative of the Democratic party's mainstream or delegates. Too many Clinton supporters were driven away, and too many noisy Clinton bashers act as though the world would end if they couldn't post at least one Clinton-bashing message a day. They sound like freepers much of the time, and they're just the mirror image of PUMAs. They are blinded by their hatred of the Clintons, incapable of understanding how much she'd help Obama.

The silly myth that she'd energize the GOP base, for instance, isn't at all supported by all the polls showing her doing better than Obama against McCain. Polls done by three different organization in May, June and July showed she'd help Obama against McCain if an Obama/Clinton ticket were up against a McCain/Romney ticket -- she increased Obama's lead by margins between a few points and more than ten points.

Polls are showing Democrats less united than Republicans, and pollsters are saying it seems to be a significant fraction of Clinton supporters who are withholding support from Obama.

So she needs to be on the ticket. Only truly practical choice, and quite possibly the only winning ticket for us this year.

[SeaLyons]

25. ...

:thumbsup:

[ContinentalOp]

26. How much of that is just name recognition though?

Which is greater: the number of Democrats who will stay home or vote for McCain if she isn't the VP pick, or the number of independents and undecideds who will turn toward McCain if they perceive Obama as being weak because he was "forced" to pick her as VP or because they think that the Clintons will overshadow and overpower Obama's role as the president?

[Spider Jerusalem]

30. Polls of DEMOCRATIC VOTERS. Almost all of whom are already voting for Obama.

Not relevant. Not when there is a far more significant negative effect among both independent voters and disaffected Republicans.

[ContinentalOp]

24. I think you have to think less about her direct effect on voters,

and more about how the choice would reflect on Obama and affect Obama directly. If he picked Clinton, does it make him appear weak? Would the media say that he was "forced" into picking her? Would the Democratic party base think that she became the VP against Obama's wishes? That IMO is the primary concern to think about when considering the impact Clinton would have as VP.

The second consideration would be the direct effect on Obama during the campaign and as president. Is she too powerful? Would she overshadow him? Would Bill be a third wheel? Would every decision become Obama vs. the Clintons? Can he really work together with the two of them without compromising his own strength and leadership position?

Those two factors should be the primary motivation behind his decision. Not which states or demographic groups she may bring in or how she and Bill might help on the campaign trail. There are other people who can bring some of those things to the table and the VP's influence in that area is arguably negligible anyway.

[Spider Jerusalem]

28. Hurt.

Clinton is the *worst* of the many frequently mentioned potential VPs. The depth of dislike for her cannot be underestimated. I have heard dozens of 'independent' voters say they'd vote for Obama unless Clinton is his VP. That's anecdotal, of course, but I think there are a LOT more like them. Not to mention that the right-wing lunatics have a hatred for the Clintons that burns with the fire of a thousand suns; a lot of them may not be enthusiastic about voting FOR McCain, but you can bet your ass they'd be enthusiastic about voting AGAINST Hillary.

And Hillary gave the GOP LOTS of ammunition in the event she's selected as VP. 'McCain has a lifetime of experience...Obama has a speech'; 'McCain has passed the Commander-in-Chief threshold', etc. All of that would be used by Republican 527's. There is no way in hell Clinton is a good VP choice.

[Tarc]

31. help, undoubtedly

Won't change my vote either way...tho I will hold my nose while voting for Obama...as McCain is a miserable son of a bitch, but it is hard to ignore that there's still a lot of enmity within the party. Does Obama want to unify and move forward, or deal with this all through the election?

[Zavulon]

32. It wouldn't affect my vote, but

it would drastically affect my campaign contributions, which would drop immediately from "whatever I can spare" to "not a fucking cent."

[shadowknows69]

33. AAARRRRRGGGGHHHHH!!!

Fuckin Argh

[Arugula Latte]

34. Hurt. She is widely disliked on both sides.

Yes, there is a significant group that likes her, but they are vastly outnumbered.

[David Zephyr]

35. Helps in ways no other candidate can help Obama.

And Denver will be a blow out of unity and great vibes.

[scheming daemons]

39. Still ain't happenin', David

[jesus_of_suburbia]

50. If he picks Clinton, he has the election locked up. The Presidency would be his.

You are correct... she helps in ways no other candidate could.

[Arkansas Granny]

42. Obama's choice of VP will not affect my vote. Early in the season when we still

had all of the candidates in the race I said that I was going to vote for the Democratic nominee, whoever it might be. That still holds.

[jesus_of_suburbia]

51. I think that goes for at least 95% of the posters on this board.

I know it does for me.

Still hoping for Senator Clinton though!

[1Hippiechick]

44. The ppl I know will turn and vote Repuke if HRC is on the ticket. NAFTA is one of many reasons. n/t

[TheDebbieDee]

48. Gee, what kind of people do you know?

[1Hippiechick]

55. Truthfully? Ppl who have had a bellyful of the Clintons and want them gone. Poof! n/t

[blue_onyx]

46. I don't think the VP (whoever she/he is) will help or hurt much.

Each candidate will have their own positives and negatives. I think Hillary could cause harm with some Independents and some Republicans who may be considering voting Democratic. But she could increase the female vote and rural/poor vote. Plus, considering the large number of people who voted for her in the primary, she's got proven support across the country. I'm glad I don't have to pick the VP because I've changed my mind several times. I think Hillary would be a good choice but I also think Biden or Clark, or Sebelius would be good too.