VP Bayh could deliver Indiana

[DCBob]

Popular Senator Bayh could help Obama swing Indiana votes
Associated Press - August 16, 2008 5:44 PM ET

INDIANAPOLIS (AP) - Democrats hoping to see red states turn blue in November have only to look at Senator Evan Bayh to know it can happen. In 1988, Bayh became the first Democrat in 20 years to win the Indiana governor's office. In his 2004 Senate race, he received more votes than President Bush. That enduring popularity could help Democratic presidential nominee Barack Obama win Indiana in November if he taps Bayh as his running mate. Bayh's experience as governor could give an Obama ticket the executive leadership experience that some other vice presidential contenders lack. Robert Schmuhl, a professor of American studies at the University of Notre Dame, says Bayh developed budgets and administered a large state bureacracy, which is a lot more than running a Senate office.

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Obama is already polling well in Indiana. With Bayh VP it's a lock. A blue Indiana would be a huge and could be enough to swing the election to Obama if it were close.

[darius15]

1. I still don't want him

he doesn't really bring much. I want someone who complements Obama, and Bayh is definitely not someone who fits that mould.

He could bring Indiana's 11 EV's into play though.

[DCBob]

5. I agree with you up to a point.. It all depends how you view this race.

Most are saying and I agree this is Obama's election to lose. As long as he does not do anything extremely stupid he wins. So a conservative low risk VP like Bayh is a better, safer choice -- he does no harm. If you think this is a horserace then he needs to go for a stronger VP like Clark or Biden or Webb.

[darius15]

22. I do agree that Bayh is

a much lower risk than, say an attack dog like Biden or Clark, but if Obama decides to pick a low risk VP who can just deliver a state, then I'd have to say, I'll be pretty dissapointed in him.

[DCBob]

24. Low risk does not mean to just deliver a state...

It means Bayh is a solid, consistent politician with a great deal of experience and does no harm. The fact that he probably delivers IN is just a big plus.

[salonghorn70]

31. Obama Wouldn't Pick Him Just Because He Is Low Risk

That is a factor but he would pick him because he is qualified to assume the President's duties, if needed.

[Drunken Irishman]

18. If one were to believe the current electora-vote.com predictions...

Indiana is the difference between Obama being president and not.

Yikes.

[elocs]

2. I don't believe that Obama has ever said that his criteria for picking a running mate

was to enable him to carry any state or region.

[wyldwolf]

3. doesn't matter to heretic hunters.

[salonghorn70]

4. Would Be a Great Choice

Strongly for Bayh but I don't have a clue who it is going to be.

[DCBob]

16. Me too.

I have gone back and forth on about 10 different VP possiblities. My hair hurts.

[Cosmocat]

6. People need to understand ...

1) It is becoming increasingly clear that this election is going to be A LOT closer than a lot of folks here thought ...
2) Bayh has a FANTASTIC resume and is the same age as BO ... He is a LEGITIMATE VP candidate, and being BO's peer won't be couched as having to carry BO's water, while adding some needed experience ...
3) SO, based on his merits, Bayh is a VERY solid choice ...
4) Indiana for BO with Bayh is possibly the clearest opportunity for a VP to ACTUALLY swing a state in decades ...
5) IF BO holds the Kerry states and wins Iowa and Indiana, it is game, set, match ...

I know people think BO needs an "attack dog" and to an extent I don't disagree ... But, as much as it pains me to say, this is not a GENERAL election race anymore ... It is an ELECTORAL COLLEGE race ... Biden does NOT help win any particular states ...

I also know people here WANT to believe Bayh is some kind of heretic ...

HE IS NOT ...

Bottom line, this election is on the line, BIG TIME, and IMO, Bayh is the surest bet for BO to get into the white house, and keep a half senile and rapidly increasingly ideologically deranged R from getting there ...

Hold the Kerry states, bring Iowa and Indiana home ...

The country, the PLANET is a better/safer place ...

[DCBob]

9. Totally agree.

I hope the Bayh haters will get over it when/if Obama picks him.

[nsd]

15. Totally agree. Well said.

We could definitely lose this election, and that would be awful for the country and the planet.

I don't understand people who go out of their way to trash Bayh or any of the other prospects. At this point, that's self-defeating. Once the announcement is made, we're all going to have to rally around the ticket. Singing the praises of your preferred candidate is fine, but badmouthing the others is not helpful.

[snowbear]

28. Excellent points Cosmo..

When I asked for input on Evan Bayh, I got a wide range of responses! >>>

And just from the research I've done on him.. plus reading his lengthy bio as a two-term governor turned U.S. Senator, I've come to the conclusion that if he's the pick...

..It will be fine by me.

[Alexander]

7. Is 11 electoral votes worth a PNAC agenda in the VP's office?

The correct answer is "No thank you".

[Cosmocat]

11. The correct answer is ...

as things are currently trending, WITHOUT those 11 electoral votes you have a MUCH greater chance of BO not getting to where he needs to be ...

The correct answer is a supposed democratic neocon sitting under a sane Barrack Obama presidency OR a completely unhinged pol who has never seen a war he hasn't liked, and leaving the white house in COMPLETE control of the neocons ...

[Alexander]

40. We can win without Indiana, and we shouldn't sell our souls just for a state.

Obama has a good shot of winning Virginia, Colorado and Indiana even without Bayh.

If he chooses Bayh many Democrats will stay home. I'll vote for that ticket but I won't enjoy it.

Plus, that situation puts Bayh a heartbeat away from the presidency. I'd rather not have a wolf in sheep's clothing waiting to take over the presidency.

[Hieronymus]

8. Bayh is DLC and was a big Hillary backer. Two strikes.

[DCBob]

12. Obama wants to build bridges and work with all factions.

Republican, Democrat, Independent and DLC.

[wyldwolf]

13. two homeruns

[Alexander]

41. Yes, it's the neocon wet dream.

[wyldwolf]

46. It's the "prooogreessive" drama queen nightmare

[BlooInBloo]

10. Doubt it.

[quiet.american]

14. Still not Bayh - ing. nt

[Awsi Dooger]

17. The headline is more accurate than your summation

"Could" instead of "lock."

It's anything but a lock. Again, I'll give the specifics from 2004: Indiana was 14% self-identified liberals, 42% self-identified conservatives in the presidential exit poll. That is devastating. It's not even close to the swing state range of 20-22% liberals and 32-34% conservatives. If you want some reference points, I'll provide a state on either side of Indiana: Tennessee was slightly more liberal at 15/39. Oklahoma somewhat more conservative at 13/44.

The mainstream media thrills to ignore fundamentals like that. In fact, you'll never hear them mentioned. It's similar to football where the most relevant stats are ignored in favor of the simpleton stuff. Has anyone ever heard of Adjusted Yards Per Pass Attempt? I didn't think so.

Even the big polling sites like Pollster.com strangely focus more on the flimsy Party ID numbers than the liberal/conservative percentages. Frankly, it's rank ignorance. If they actually bet on this stuff they would know better.

A 14/42 state is hardly a lock. I don't give a damn about current state polls or a VP bump, which would be in the 3-3.5 range with Bayh.

In fact, I'll give you the scenario, if we name Bayh: The immediate polls show an Obama lead in Indiana but then that evaporates and the pundits are asking why Obama isn't dominating Indiana despite proximity to Illinois and a hand picked Hoosier VP.

[BlooInBloo]

19. It's funny how DUers bitch about the media, but then trundle right ahead with their own distortions.

[DCBob]

21. I like "lock".

Lets look at the facts:

-- Current polls are very very close.
-- Obama plans to open 20-25 field offices.
-- McCain plans to open none.
-- Bayh VP effect
-- Illinois effect

Taken all into account I think lock is appropriate.

[Stop Cornyn]

20. Ideologically, I find Bayh no more abhorrent than Biden, and at least Bayh MIGHT bring a swing state

into our column.

Also, Bayh might grow more reasonable while in office like Gore did.

I hope Obama doesn't pick a Senator (or if he does, I hope it is a one-term Senator like McCaskill).

[charlyvi]

23. What kind of President would he be?

The ultimate question when choosing a VP, and Obama has stated this, is what type of President would the VP be? Would you want Bayh as President? I wouldn't. There is more to consider here than whether he can bring Indiana with him, which is doubtful. I've lived in Indiana. It's not a lock by any means.

[DCBob]

27. Nothing is a "lock", but ...

with Bayh, all things considered, IN is likely to go blue.

[charlyvi]

29. But, to return to my first question....

What kind of President would he be? Not a very good one. And that is the most important consideration.

[DCBob]

30. Why do you say that? He was a very popular governor.

Bayh was re-elected governor in 1992 with the highest percentage of the vote in a statewide election in modern Indiana history. He defeated State Attorney General Linley E. Pearson, a Republican, to win his second term. His administration was considered cautious but successful (even by Republicans in the state), creating a large budget surplus and permitting him to cut taxes. "Mr. Bayh's record is one of a genuinely fiscally conservative Democrat," reported the Wall Street Journal in 1992.

Stressing fiscal responsibility, lower taxes, job creation and lean government, Bayh's tenure as governor was highlighted by eight years without raising taxes, the largest single tax cut and largest budget surplus in state history, "welfare-to-work" policies, increasing annual school funding, high academic standards and new college opportunities, the creation of over 350,000 new jobs, the strengthening of law enforcement and improved environmental quality. He signed the 21st Century Scholars Act in 1992, legislation that states that every child in Indiana who is eligible for the free lunch program in a public school, graduates from high school and signs a pledge not to experiment with illegal drugs is entitled to a full tuition scholarship to an Indiana public university of his or her choice. By the end of his second term, Bayh had an approval rating of nearly 80 percent.

[charlyvi]

33. He may be a popular governor for Indiana,

but Indiana isn't the US at large. His voting record is lousy:


Why shouldn't Barack Obama pick Evan Bayh as his running mate? According to Dylan Matthews at Tapped, there are lots of reasons not to pick Evan Bayh. Here they are:

Bayh is well to the right of both Obama and the party at large. He not only voted to authorize the invasion of Iraq in 2002, he was an honorary co-chairman of the Committee to Liberate Iraq, along with Joe Lieberman and John McCain. If those associates weren't bad enough, the group's non-Senatorial members included Bill Kristol, James Woolsey, and McCain foreign policy guru Randy Scheunemann. Even in this Congress, Bayh voted for the relatively weak Levin amendment calling for redeployment but against the more hard-hitting Feingold amendment, which Obama and Clinton both supported.

Going through the rest of his voting record, it's clear that Bayh sticks out like a sore thumb in the Democratic caucus. He has a 50% NARAL rating, he voted for a flag-burning amendment and bankruptcy reform, he's "undecided" on a school prayer amendment, he supports John McCain's proposal to boot Russia from the G8, and he supported the Kyl-Lieberman amendment that Obama made a key part of his critique of Clinton.

http://firedoglake.com/2008/08/04/why-bayh/

He's a Democratic Dan Quayle, who votes the way the Beltway wants him to. He's for almost everything I'm against at a national level, whatever the people of Indiana think of him. I don't want to risk a President Bayh just to win the state of Indiana. A dubious prospect at best.

[DCBob]

35. Clearly he's a centrist but that does not mean he wouldn't be a good POTUS.

Of course Inidana is not the "US at large" but no one on VP list has any experience with governing the US at large. We can only judge them on their past performance in whatever capacity that was -- Bayh did a fantastic job as governor.

[charlyvi]

38. In no way would I call Bayh a centrist

He is a conservative Democrat. I am judging him on the policy choices he made through his Senate votes--and he is sorely lacking in judgement and independence of thought. His voting record on the war is abhorrent, his respect for civil liberties is very compromised, and he is to the right of most in our party.

You can't know how someone would govern the US until they do it, it's true, but you can infer from their voting records what their priorities would be. Evan Bayh has shown me nothing on a national level that would be good for this country.

We need a person to repair the damage of the last eight years. It'a difficult to see Bayh doing that, should he become President, since his votes clearly show he was a party to creating much of that damage. Sorry, but I still don't want to risk a President Bayh just to win Indiana. And, again, I think the possibility of Indiana going blue even with Bayh on the ticket is remote.

[debbierlus]

25. Wonderful - A DINO of the first degree

Gross.

[JTFrog]

26. Right. A senator who not only voted for IWR but cosponsored it. That will show good judgment.

:eyes:

[Dinger]

34. Touché JTFrog

Wow, Indiana! Just wow!!

:sarcasm:

[karynnj]

47. I had forgotten that Bayh co sponsored it and hadn't known McCain did

S.J.RES.46
Title: A joint resolution to authorize the use of United States Armed Forces against Iraq.
Sponsor: Sen Lieberman, Joseph I. (introduced 10/2/2002) Cosponsors (16)
Related Bills: H.J.RES.114, S.J.RES.45
Latest Major Action: 10/3/2002 Read the second time. Placed on Senate Legislative Calendar under General Orders. Calendar No. 630.
Note: For further action, see H.J.Res. 114, which became Public Law 107-243 on 10/16/2002. COSPONSORS(16), ALPHABETICAL : (Sort: by date)


Sen Allard, Wayne - 10/2/2002
Sen Baucus, Max - 10/7/2002
Sen Bayh, Evan - 10/2/2002
Sen Breaux, John B. - 10/9/2002
Sen Bunning, Jim - 10/4/2002
Sen Domenici, Pete V. - 10/2/2002
Sen Edwards, John - 10/3/2002
Sen Helms, Jesse - 10/2/2002
Sen Hutchinson, Tim - 10/2/2002
Sen Johnson, Tim - 10/7/2002
Sen Landrieu, Mary L. - 10/2/2002
Sen McCain, John - 10/2/2002
Sen McConnell, Mitch - 10/2/2002
Sen Miller, Zell - 10/2/2002
Sen Thurmond, Strom - 10/10/2002
Sen Warner, John - 10/2/200

[mod mom]

32. and the rest of the country to the neocons-NO THANKS!

Bayh is DLC and he co-chaired Committee for the Liberation of Iraq w McCain (A NEOCON GROUP!)

http://tpmelectioncentral.talkingpointsmemo.com/2008/07/bayh_as_veep_he_cochaired_wing.php

[AllentownJake]

36. Bayh couldn't deliver a Pizza

Let alone a state.

Now if we could make his father 20 years younger somehow I'd be the first to jump aboard that ticket.

[grillo7]

37. Bob Graham could deliver Florida...

Which has considerably more electoral votes, AND he voted against the war.

[Carrieyazel]

39. Highly doubtful that Bayh can deliver IN as the #2 pick.

People vote at the top of the ticket; and you don't pick a candidate to help you win a state. You pick one who can reinforce the ticket and also one that doesn't hurt your cause.

If Obama picks Bayh in the hopes that Indiana will go blue, he's confirming that he can't do it himself as the #1.

[Douglas Carpenter]

42. Evan Bayh is a foreign policy NEOCONSERVATIVE EXTREMIST KOOK!!!

GOOD LORD!! Evan Bayh is such a foreign policy extremist that one of this biggest problems with the current Iraq War seems to be that he worries that in might prevent a war with Iran.

http://washingtonindependent.com/view/stop-obama-bayh-08

"This is a hallmark of Evan Bayh. A former chairman of the Democratic Leadership Council and a past recipient Henry M. "Scoop" Jackson Award for Distinguished Service from the neoconservative security think tank JINSA."

http://www.tompaine.com/articles/2006/02/03/evan_bayh_tough_but_smart.php

Evan Bayh was one of the earliest and most enthusiastic cheerleaders along with Sen. McCain and Sen. Lieberman and the whole crew of neocon nuts for the War in Iraq.

"The Committee for the Liberation of Iraq (CLI) is pleased to welcome Sen. Evan Bayh (D-Ind.) as an Honorary Co-Chairman. Bayh becomes the third U.S. Senator to join the committee after Sens. Joe Lieberman (D-Conn.) and John McCain (R-Ariz.) announced their participation on January 28.

The Committee is a neo-con group that was formed to propagandize the country into war. It boasted such illustrious neocon members as Bill Kristol, former CIA director James Woolsey, and even McCain senior foreign policy and Chalabi-bamboozler Randy Scheunemann, whom Josh has been blogging about."

http://tpmelectioncentral.talkingpointsmemo.com/2008/07/bayh_as_veep_he_cochaired_wing.php

.

[depakid]

43. Reality check. Indiana requires more than a 20% swing from 2004.

historically, that almost never happens anywhere- much less a state like Indiana.

[slick8790]

44. Reality check. That's happening. Or close.

An average of the last 7 polls shows McCain up a paltry 1.7%, well within a MOE and putting the state decidedly in play. 2008 is very different than 2004, and Obama is very different from John Kerry.

[depakid]

45. Cheap pollsat this stage mean very little- as anyone who's watched this year already knows

Obama will lose some Kerry voters- and probably pick up many more Bush voters, but overall- unless McCain meltsdown, Indiana is only a suckers' play.

(of course, that doesn't mean that Dems shouldn't force McCain to spend money & resources there).

btw: on edit: the swing is 17% from Bush v. Gore 2000.