The Daily Widget – Tuesday, Aug 5 – Obama 339, McCain 199 – A Polar Shift to the Right

[phrigndumass]

Contents:
1. Tidbits
2. Widgets
3. New State Polls
4. Daily Tracking – Electoral Votes
5. Daily Tracking – Wigand Electoral Average
6. Daily Tracking – Popular Vote and Swing States Trading
7. Electoral College Map and State Chart
8. Links, Definitions and Sources


* * * * * * *


1. TIDBITS – A Polar Shift to the Right

Many Thanks to everyone who posted or sent links to state demographics data yesterday! I hope to have the Crosstab Project done by next Monday and will give everyone a full report next week.

Here is more evidence that Barack Obama’s lead is a fragile thing and should be cared for. Obama’s strong-state lead over McCain has dropped by 80 electoral votes in the past month. Over the July 4th weekend, Obama led McCain in Strong electoral votes by +134. His lead has now plummeted to +54 (see the blue line in the graph below).





It’s not happening from just one side or the other, though. It is happening at both extremes.

We could expect many of the Weak Red states to move strongly to the right with the McCain campaign’s July message of “Paint Obama as a Presumptuous Racist Celebrity Flip-Flopper who is against the SURGE!” Doing so revived the South for McCain, as his leads jumped in Arkansas, Georgia, Mississippi, Louisiana and South Carolina. McCain increased his Strong electoral votes by 32, from 70 on July 4 to 112 now. Bob Barr’s numbers dropped at the same time.

But perhaps we’ve been too busy guarding the hen house from the foxes that we didn’t bother to watch the family pet.

Strong Blue states are weakening, particularly in the Northeast. Obama’s strong leads have dropped in New Hampshire, Massachusetts, New Jersey, Maine and Minnesota in the past month, while Ralph Nader’s numbers have risen. Many progressives have been turned off by Obama’s stance on FISA and his political move to the center, and it is showing in the polls. Obama’s Strong electoral votes fell by 38, down from 204 on July 4 to 166 now.

The states in the Center moved only slightly to the right during the past month. The Center likes Obama, but let’s hope we can prevent more folks on the left from defecting to Nader or Undecided.


* * * * * * *


2. WIDGETS



^ FIGURE 2a. This is what we refer to as the “Widget”. In the white section, it shows Obama’s and McCain’s electoral vote projection from three different sources. 270 would be a majority. In the yellow section, it shows three sources of trading and averages for the candidates. The scale for these is 0 to 100, with 50 being a majority. Intrade shows the trading, while RCP-av shows the aggregate average of all the state polls. The Wigand Electoral Average is our own indicator, and shows how the candidates will do if the undecideds nationwide break the same way as the swing states.



^ FIGURE 2b. The Wigand Electoral Average is our own indicator, and shows how the candidates will do if the undecideds nationwide break the same way as the swing states. Each of the twelve swing states are listed below the indicator’s current score. The closing figures on Intrade are shown next to each state, with a column to show the change from the previous day. The scale for these is 0 to 100, with 50 being a majority.


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3. NEW STATE POLLS

Two polls for Arizona both step to the right today. And two polls for Florida both move to the right. Massachusetts weakens for Obama. Alabama stays Strong Red, while Connecticut remains Strong Blue.


Alabama Obama 38, McCain 58 (Rasmussen, 7/31, +/- 4.5, 500 LV)
Arizona Obama 38, McCain 57 (Rasmussen, 7/30, +/- 4.5, 500 LV)
Arizona Obama 40, McCain 52 (Public Policy Polling, 7/31, +/- 3.1, 1000 LV)
Connecticut Obama 53, McCain 40 (Rasmussen, 7/31, +/- 4.5, 500 LV)
Florida Obama 40, McCain 45 (McLaughlin-R, 7/28, +/- 2.5, 1600 RV)
Florida Obama 44, McCain 50 (Survey USA, 8/3, +/- 3.8, 679 LV)
Massachusetts Obama 47, McCain 38 (Suffolk University, 8/3, +/- 4.9, 400 RV)


Scale:
Strong Obama (10% or greater)
Weak Obama (5% to 9%)
Lean Obama (0% to 4%)
Lean McCain (0% to 4%)
Weak McCain (5% to 9%)
Strong McCain (10% or greater)


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4. DAILY TRACKING – ELECTORAL VOTES



^ FIGURE 4a. This graph shows the daily tracking of Obama’s projected electoral votes from three sources. 270 is a majority of the electoral votes. The blue line shows daily tracking from 538.com, which projects what the outcome should be on election day. The red line shows daily tracking from Electoral-Vote.com, which shows a current snapshot of Obama’s electoral progress if the undecideds break evenly. The green line is my own projection, and it shows a current snapshot of Obama’s electoral progress if the undecideds break the same way as the swing states. A trend line is used (dashed green line) to show the average progress since May 19 and possible route for the next seven days.



^ FIGURE 4b. This graph shows Obama’s green line and red line from the previous graph, and compares it to John Kerry’s 2004 progress (orange line) as shown from Electoral-Vote.com. (Both the red line and the orange line show data from Electoral-Vote.com)


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5. DAILY TRACKING – WIGAND ELECTORAL AVERAGE



^ FIGURE 5a. This graph shows the daily tracking of the swing states total from the Wigand Electoral Average widget above (second chart from the top). To show Obama’s progress in the swing states, divide the latest closing figure by 1200.



^ FIGURE 5b. Wigand vs. National Polls, RCP Average and Trading. The Wigand Electoral Average uses both poll averages and trading (swing states), and this graph compares it to the national daily tracking polls from Gallup, Rasmussen and Real Clear Politics (average), as well as the closing trading figures from Intrade (people buying shares with real money) and Rasmussen Markets (people using fake money).


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6. DAILY TRACKING – POPULAR VOTE AND SWING STATES TRADING



^ FIGURE 6a. I am projecting 126,750,000 million votes on election day, which is the total 2004 votes plus population growth for each state. A total projected popular vote is calculated for each candidate based on projected votes on election day this year multiplied by each state’s current poll results. This graph shows the daily tracking of the popular vote calculations.



^ FIGURE 6b. This graph shows the daily tracking of each swing state’s closing figure on Intrade. The scale is 0 to 100 with 50 being a majority. I commonly refer to the range from 40.00 to 60.00 as “The Zone” because the states in The Zone are true swing states this year.


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7. ELECTORAL COLLEGE MAP AND STATE CHART








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8. LINKS, DEFINITIONS AND SOURCES


Yesterday’s Widget
Full Weekly Tracking
Past editions of THE MATH

Sources:
Pollster.com
FiveThirtyEight.com
Electoral-Vote.com
Intrade
Rasmussen Markets
RCP Average
RCP Latest Polls

What is this? THE MATH’s Daily Widget was created to track multiple daily sources which measure the potential success of Barack Obama’s presidential campaign. Projected Electoral Votes are on a scale of 0 to 538, with 270 being a majority, or projected win. Trading and Averages are on a scale of 0 to 100, with 50.1 being a majority, or projected win.

The Wigand Electoral Average uses public polling results to determine base states for both parties and a short list of swing states, and combines the actual electoral votes from base states with a weighted Intrade calculation for electoral votes from swing states to derive an average on a scale of 0 to 100. On this scale, greater than 50.00 is considered a win for Barack Obama. An average of 50.10 would yield 270 electoral votes, and an average of 100.00 would yield 538 electoral votes. More Information

As always, I’m open to your feedback and suggestions, and I will be happy to explain anything!

Feel free to use these charts and graphs anywhere on Democratic Underground.

Donate to the Obama Campaign today through DU’s donation link at Barack Obama’s website:
http://my.barackobama.com/page/outreach/view/main/du

[pocoloco]

1. Sticking a tire gauge up his own ass was not a good idea!!

[phrigndumass]

2. Was he wrong? Or do you consider it a "duct tape and plastic sheeting" moment?

:donut: Good morning :hi:

[fight4my3sons]

3. Good morning, phrigndumass!

k&r

I don't know what to say other than I hate the spreading weakness :(

[phrigndumass]

5. It's a fragile lead :(

But we still have many things to generate the waves of interest. The VP selection should give us a small bump, then the ad buys during the Olympics, on into the convention at the end of the month. Kerry had all that past him at this point four years ago.

:donut: Good morning! :hi: :hi:

[rox63]

4. I just have to say

that despite Massachusetts moving from Strong Obama to Weak Obama, there is no friggin' way that MA will vote for McCain in November. Absolutely no way.

Just sayin'...

:hi:

[phrigndumass]

7. Agreed 100%

That's another thing Massachusetts and California have in common, besides marriage equality ... There are a great number of conservatives in both states who can become energized by bigotry and negative ads, but in the end the states always fall on the right side of the fence.

It's a good measure to use during the election season, though. A strong blue state showing weakness tells us that either the republican message is succeeding, or the usual political move to the center by the Democratic candidate is a turn-off. I believe it is both in this case.

:donut: Good morning, rox! :hi:

[jefferson_dem]

8. Actually, MA tightening is not such a bad thing...

If the national numbers have really been tilting in a bad way, I would rather see the numbers closer in a "SAFE OBAMA" state, which means more limited damage in the battlegrounds.

[bkinsd]

11. Huh?

What kind of logic is that? Obama should be blowing away the competition in MA. If MCCain is putting the heat on in MA this is a bad, bad sign.

[jefferson_dem]

12. I know...

I'm always looking for the silver lining.

Look at it this way - If the national numbers have truly been tightening over the past week, and say MA showed a 30 point Obama lead instead, wouldn't that mean the he's lost more ground in the actual battleground states?

McCain has no MA heat. Everyone knows Obama will not lose MA.

[jefferson_dem]

6. Thanks phrigndumass!

Not happy with the trend but not "concerned" yet either.

Onward with vigilance!

On that SUSA FL poll, it looks like they slightly oversampled Repubs. They have it at 43%R 38%D. I'm curious how much different the horserace numbers would be if the sample was adjusted to 50/50, which is more likely the reality. Also, SUSA has 16% AA going to McCain. Right.

http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReport.aspx?g=9946139b-a61a-4f93-bbcc-6ce0fae9014a

[phrigndumass]

9. Vigilance, yes!

Those are some juicy stats, aren't they? The AA vote nationwide is polling at roughly 88% to 12%. Four percentage points can make a huge difference.

43R-38D doesn't sound right, either. Thanks for sharing that.

:donut: Good morning! :hi:

[phrigndumass]

10. Off to work kick

Enjoy your day :D

[RNdaSilva]

13. Checking in...

As I've been saying, for weeks, I'll bet on Obama and give 30 EV's. Any takers?

Thanks again...



Getting close to NFL 2008, Go Chargers!

[Cosmocat]

15. Eh ...

Check back, I might take you up on that ...

IMO ....

1) BO was NEVER, NEVER, NEVER going to come close to winning in South Carolina or Louisianna ...
2) His odds are not good for GA or NC, those are the two deep south states he has any kind of chance in ...
3) I had thrown FL out a long time ago, got a little glimmer of hope with him spending so much money and the polls tightening a bit, but if they are stretching back out again, I am NOT counting on Florida in any way shape or form ...
4) He was NEVER going to win PA by 15 or whatever ... I think the 6 or so points is getting close to where it should be going in ...
5) IMO, Michigan is his key "hold" state ... I think if he loses a "blue state" it will be Michigan ... If he holds Michigan he is in REAL good shape ...
6) I think he has McCain in a bit of a bad spot in that BO seems able to make a run at either winning VA and or Ohio, or picking up some of the western states like Colorado/New Mexico/Nevada/Montana ... I think whoever McCain picks as VP will determine in part how that plays out ... If he goes for someone to help in VA or Ohio, I think that BO can run HARD in the western states to make up the difference ... If McCain picks Romney, it might help him to make a push at Michigan and some of those states with higher morman populations, but I think he does not help much in Ohio/VA ...
7) What the media just does not want to let people know is that for all intents and purposes, BO has already won Iowa, flipping one red state ... IMO, if he were to pick Bayh, that would turn over Indiana, and if every other state stayed the same, it would turn BO's way ...
8) Still a LONG way to go ... I agree with those who note that the national polls are troubling ... I think the media has successfully drawn him within distance of where they can do one or two Pastorgates and REALLY put this thing in jeopardy ...

[phrigndumass]

16. Common sense, good thoughts

Thanks for sharing that, Cosmo

:hi:

[Demeter]

14. Look At All the Little Lemmings, I Mean Goppers, Lining Up Behind McCain!

and if the boys overseas are blocked from voting....

Well, it was fun for a while.

Nobody can say we dodn't warn Obama about cutting and running to the right.

[psychmommy]

17. nj is so disappointing.

we have some work to do here. thanks phrig as always.

[Kdillard]

18. Thanks as always. Not too worried yet but there is work to do.