Time Magazine: The New Battlegrounds Oakland County, Mich.

[SharonRB]

To get a fix on just how thoroughly the slumping economy has clobbered the state of Michigan, consider first some traditional indicators: Nearly 300,000 manufacturing jobs have disappeared in the past decade. Ford just posted the worst quarterly loss in its 105-year history, and GM announced it was closing or converting plants. More than 1 of every 20 mortgages is in or near foreclosure, and at 8.5%, Michigan's unemployment rate is the highest in the nation.

But to fully grasp why the economy is the first, last and only issue on the minds of Michigan voters this year, one fact reveals all: two months after the Detroit Red Wings won the Stanley Cup, there is no waiting list for season tickets.

Michigan has gone Democratic in every presidential election cycle since 1988--but it could surprise this time around. While Democrats usually benefit when economic concerns dominate an election, Barack Obama is running only a few points ahead of John McCain in statewide polls, a margin neither side considers safe. Adding to Obama's challenges is the fact that several of the state's Democratic leaders are wildly unpopular, under indictment or both.

The battle for Michigan is coming down to leafy, affluent Oakland County, a once solidly Republican bastion that has grown more Democratic in recent years. Oakland is one of the new battlegrounds of 2008--a handful of counties in must-win swing states that weren't pivotal a decade ago but are where the election will be lost or won this year. Though nearby Macomb County gave rise to Reagan Democrats nearly 30 years ago, it is the more upscale Oakland that holds the key to Michigan now.

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http://www.time.com/time/magazine/article/0,9171,1828307,00.html

[Demeter]

1. Time Tries To Beat the Dead McCain Campaign Horse

There's no horse race in Michigan. It's Obama by several lengths.

The only surprise will be if McCain gets any votes outside of deVos territory. The Reagan Democrats are all dead or suffering Reagan style dementia now.

[SharonRB]

2. I saw Dave Woodward at an event this afternoon

He was less than thrilled with the article. This may be just an excerpt from the print version. I understand it took two pages in the magazine itself.

I think the polls everywhere are way off in McCain's favor, since they don't poll new voters who only have cell phones. The polls totally miss the young vote demographic, which is overwhelmingly for Obama.

[WVMountainMama]

3. lots of reagan dems in that county

[SharonRB]

4. I live in Oakland County

It's actually Macomb County, to our north and east, that has a lot of Reagan Democrats.

[Barack_America]

8. I don't know. Reagan Dems are pretty much the norm in Waterford...

:shrug:

[DemocracyInaction]

5. Obama apparently suffering from primaries

I heard a good break down by Chuck Todd on several swing states and areas within those states. Apparently, McCain camp is licking chops about Michigan because Obama, of course, didn't have those months of campaigning there for the primaries; and, thus, does not have the on the ground forces and offices that he has developed elsewhere. He, too, mentioned that so much of Michigan "government" is Dem and the people there (similar to what is going on in CO to the repukes) are pointing more to their state/local governments to blame than to Bush and D.C. Also, suburbs of Detroit are in absolute uproar and hate the mayor of Detroit and all the problems there. Michigan is by no means in the bag.

[SharonRB]

6. No, I wouldn't say we're in the bag

It's going to take lots of "hard werk," but the campaign is on the ground here in Oakland County now and we're getting organized all over the county, community by community. We've got lots of people "fired up and ready to go." We've been waiting a long time.

[Barack_America]

7. Upscale? Gah. Oakland County is as much Pontiac, Waterford and Southfield as it is...

Birmingham, Bloomfield Hills and West Bloomfield. Sure a few are very wealthy, but the middle class-dependent-on-GM-for-everything is probably the norm. (though I've been away for about 6 years)

Regardless, promise to help bail out the car companies with subsidies to revamp the factories and Oakland will be yours...

[SharonRB]

11. You're right that the entire county isn't upscale

but enough of it is that our reputation is of being an upscale county.

[Motown_Johnny]

9. So, MI has gone blue in every pres. election since '88. and the repug

stronghold of Oakland county is now a battleground



Isn't this a good thing?


Doesn't that mean that MI will be even more strongly in the Democratic camp this cycle?



P.S. Don't worry about the wings tickets... Wings win so often it isn't that big a deal anymore. (And Joe Lewis Arena is not a great facility.)

[SharonRB]

10. It's definitely a good thing

We're probably not going to win in Macomb, but we will win Wayne County and MUST win Oakland County. There are other parts of the state that are pretty red.

Parts of Oakland County are very blue, but there are others that have historically been very red that are now at least turning purple. We hope to turn them blue this year in a big way.

[CitizenPatriot]

12. GOBAMA MICHIGAN!

Yeah Michigan! Don't know if it was Oakland County or Bloomfield zip, but it used to be second or third wealthiest area in the country. It's a shame what is going on there now. How's Grosse Pointe looking? Is that the reason Macomb is red? I know lots of folks from Michigan who are BLUE and working very hard for Obama. Ann Arbor will hopefully bring in some major blue votes, if they don't go indie. It is a no-brainer to me with all of those folks who lost their jobs that they might look at the last 8 years and cringe. Problem is what is being promised? You have the film incentive there now, but that is probably only helping the state marginally. It was still a good move, though, IMO. Good luck, Michiganders. Pulling for you!