Newsweek blog: The Obama Veepwatch, Vol. 6: John Edwards

[question everything]

http://blog.newsweek.com/blogs/stumper/archive/2008/07/09/the-obama-veepwatch-vol-6-john-edwards.aspx

The Obama Veepwatch, Vol. 6: John Edwards
Wednesday, July 09, 2008 5:16 PM
By Andrew Romano

In which Stumper examines the Democratic nominee's possible--and not-so-possible--vice-presidential picks. (Previous McCain installments: Bobby Jindal; Mitt Romney; Charlie Crist; Tim Pawlenty; Rob Portman. Previous Obama installments: Ted Strickland; Jim Webb; Wes Clark; Hillary Clinton; Kathleen Sebelius.)



(snip)

Source of Speculation: Edwards himself. In an interview Tuesday on NPR, reporter Guy Raz told the former White House hopeful that his presence on Obama's shortlist was “open secret” and asked whether he’d accept a vice presidential offer or take himself out of consideration, as Virginia Sen. Jim Webb did on Monday. "I don’t expect to be asked, have no expectation about it at all," he said. " I am prepared to seriously consider anything, anything asks me to do for our country.” Voila: a spate of stories buzzing about a possible Obama-Edwards ticket.

Backstory: Edwards' open-door answer on NPR wasn't noteworthy in and of itself. Dispensing the usual "don't expect it, haven't pursued it" disclaimers, he sounded exactly like the rest of Obama's expectant veeps--Evan Bayh, Kathleen Sebelius, Hillary Clinton, etc. But that's the thing: until now, Edwards has consistently showed active, unbridled antipathy to the idea of reprising his role as the Democrats' vice presidential nominee . Leaving a Manhattan awards ceremony shortly after he endorsed Obama in mid-May , Edwards told a swarm of reporters, "I have no interest in running as vice president." The next morning he appeared on the Today show to address, in Matt Lauer's words, "speculation... that you would be a possible vice presidential candidate to run alongside Barack Obama." His answer? A curt "No. Won't happen." And later, in June, he told the Spanish newspaper El Mundo, "I already had the privilege of running for vice president in 2004, and I won't do it again." What changed? In May, I assumed Edwards was gunning for attorney general instead. " requires months of rigorous campaigning and in the end leaves you either powerless (if you win) or further diminished (if you lose)," I wrote. " promises real pull and less public performing. For a guy who's already lost a year with his cancer-stricken wife and two young children to a second failed presidential bid, the choice seems pretty self-evident." But now that Obama's selection committee has finally launched the formal vetting process--like Webb, Edwards was likely tapped for information and documents last week--it seem he's changed his tune. That's what happens, it seems, when an ambitious man learns he might actually be asked. So game on.

Odds: Pretty strong. Until this week, the biggest knock on Edwards was that he didn't seem willing to take the job. But with his hat now firmly in the ring, the North Carolinian has to rank as one of Obama's top five picks. Edwards's strongest selling point? He is completely and utterly safe--a factor that the unconventional Obama will value highly when making his decision, according to Stumper sources. The equation is pretty simple. With Webb out of the running, Edwards fills Obama's requisite "white Southern populist" slot and could make North Carolina and Virginia even more competitive. He has a built-in Democratic base. A poverty crusader well-versed in pocketbook policy issues like health care and trade--the key concerns this election cycle--Edwards could lead the outreach to working-class whites in, say, Ohio who are still wary of an Ivy League African-American. And given that Obama campaign manager David Plouffe recently told reporters that his boss wants someone " qualified to be president… who’ll be a partner in governing” above all else, Edwards' unique background as a former presidential and vice-presidential candidate--i.e., one of the few American politicians familiar to voters mainly as a potential Commander in Chief--is especially attractive.

(snip)

The greatest drawback of an Obama-Edwards ticket is obvious: a one-term senator, Edwards offers his fellow Senate novice little in the way of foreign-policy expertise. In a battle against John McCain, a war-scarred veteran of both Washington and Vietnam, that gap could ultimately keep Edwards off the ticket. (In which case, watch Sam Nunn and Joe Biden). Assuming national-security cred isn't Obama's baseline requirement, though, his former rival for the Democratic nomination has as good a shot as anyone. The media may yawn--"Been there, done that," they'd say. But for Obama, a yawn could be precisely the point.

[Blackhatjack]

1. Edwards would reach voters Obama will not ... and this election could be closer than many think.

Edwards also would re-energize the liberal Democratic base who are concerned about perceived moves to the 'middle' by Obama of late.

IMHO the stumbling block to an Edwards VP choice may be that Edwards may push harder for core liberal positions regarding healthcare, poverty, etc. than Obama is willing to accept.

The pluses would be many. Not to mention the popularity of Elizabeth Edwards, which Obama would gain in the process of choosing John.