New TIME Poll: Obama 43, McCain 38

[Hope And Change]

From new TIME poll:

Obama 43, McCain 38
Dates conducted: June 19-25. Error margin: 3.5 points. Read more here.

http://thepage.time.com/2008/06/27/new-national-numbers-27/

[mucifer]

1. that's not good the swift boat book hasn't even come out.

[jerryster]

2. Interesting...

Quite a disparity from other polls showing Obama with a wide lead. I expect the numbers to be in a constant state of flux for a while. Meanwhile, check out the good news poll here for MN and WI.
http://politicalticker.blogs.cnn.com/

[zeemike]

3. Fox news claims it is tied.

Heard it last night on the local news.

[jerryster]

8. Seriously?

Their own poll? I'm shocked.

[Dawgs]

4. Hillary was ahead in some of the late national polls as well. Guess who won.

All that matters are the state polls - where Obama is winning by a large margin.

[geek tragedy]

5. Everyone knows who McCain is and he's under 40%. Ouch. n/t

[goldcanyonaz]

6. state polls are the only ones I watch

[JI7]

7. VERY BAD for McCain

Obama does lose points at times. but he also gains.

the problem for McCain is that even when Obama loses support, they are not moving to McCain.

[polichick]

9. Why is the Gallup so different from these others that show Obama with a good lead?

http://www.gallup.com/poll/108388/Gallup-Daily-Obama-McCain-Still-Tied-Now-44.aspx

Tied at 44

[Teaser]

10. different methodology

.

[polichick]

11. I have a friend who has used Gallup research in his work for decades...

...and swears by it ~ in this case I hope they're the ones who are off. Tied at 44 is a far cry from the others.

[Teaser]

12. He doesn't swear by the "gallup tracking poll"

He swears by the "gallup poll". It's a different poll and a different methodology. Tracking polls weight for party identification, and reweight each day's sample by that amount. The standard poll does not have such a stringent requirement on this typically fluid variable.

[polichick]

13. Hmm, could be. What is that one showing?

[Teaser]

14. Last gallup poll here:

USA Today/Gallup Poll. June 15-19, 2008. N=1,310 likely voters nationwide. MoE ± 3. RV = registered voters


.


"Suppose the election were being held today. If were the Democratic Party's candidate and John McCain were the Republican Party's candidate, who would you be more likely to vote for: , the Democrat, or John McCain, the Republican?" If unsure: "As of today, do you lean more toward , the Democrat or McCain, the Republican?" Names rotated


.

McCain Obama Other (vol.) Neither (vol.) Unsure
% % % % %


6/15-19/08 44 50 1 2 3

As you can see, the Gallup tracking poll released 6/19 or 6/20 did not have this spread. Instead it had a spread of 2 points.

[polichick]

15. It's the research that comes out of Gallup in Princeton, NJ he's sold on...

...(a political writer for many years) ~ I'm trying to find out if they're also behind the USA Today/Gallup poll.

[Teaser]

17. oh it's the same firm

but the methodologies for their tracking poll are entirely different than for their standard poll. tracking polls all share these faults: they take the first 1000 people they call, and don't filter them, because they don't have time to worry about that stuff. They don't check for sample independence, and they reweight partisan proportions. This is all done to keep the data cranking out as rapidly as possible, with as little fluctuation as possible.

[polichick]

18. Oh, I see - thanks! :)

[Colobo]

16. We're ahead. That's what matters.