My case for Tim Kaine as Vice President.

[Barack_America]

Tangibles:

1. A governor = executive experience

2. From VA = swing-state influence

3. Grew up in MO = even more swing-state influence

4. White and Catholic = inroads into that "working class whites" demographic the media is obsessed with

5. Former missionary = inroads into evangelicals, who are arguably McCain's biggest weakness among his base

6. Spanish-speaking


Intangibles:

1. The first national politician to endorse Barack (back in February 2007). He and Barack are tight, which could signify a productive working relationship.

2. Obama's and Kaine's mothers were both from El Dorado, KS. Hell of a narrative, having a black man and a white man on the same ticket, both with roots in the same heartland town. A potentially strong pushback against the "he's not one of us" BS.


Thanks for considering this! :hi:

[ayeshahaqqiqa]

1. I didn't know this

Thanks so much for posting it. It is food for thought.

[papapi]

2. I can dig it. I like Kaine, he's my Governor at the moment.

[Barack_America]

7. That brings up his one major drawback.

If selected for VP, your Republican lieutenant governor would take over for a year.

Is that a deal-breaker for you, as a VA resident?

Personally, I feel that's a trade-off I'm more willing to make than to lose a sure bet in the Senate (i.e. Webb and Warner). Sure Kaine could appoint another Dem Senator to serve out the rest of the term, but there's no guarantee this person would be reelected.

[Perky]

14. He could appoint himself Senator.

[Barack_America]

27. Then the Republican lieutenent Governor still takes over.

And we're basically back to square one.

The choice between Webb and Kaine is, IMO, really the choice whether to address Obama's weaknesses or McCain's. And that's really up to him and his strategists. And, of course, who he just plain likes more and thinks he can better work with.

[papapi]

59. It is the sticky wicket. - Lt. Gov. Bob Bolling has indicated he will not......

run for Governor in 2009. He would have a 1 year term. The Party is stronger here than I can ever remember.

[goodgd_yall]

21. I think this issue needs to be seriously considered

And that is how a VP slot would affect Democratic standing nationally. I'm with you in believing a loss in Congress would be something to avoid. That is a good argument against choosing Webb.

[Barack_America]

25. Or Biden, Warner, Kerry, etc.

And Richardson, Sebelius and Kaine are all in a similar situation, as Governors (although I'm not sure about their terms and who would replace them).

A sacrifice will likely have to be made to get the right VP candidate. It's just my opinion that removal of a Senator (or a soon-to-be Senator) is too great a sacrifice.

[goodgd_yall]

36. I agree

that loss of a potential or current senator is more worrisome than the loss of a Dem. governor. We need all the Democrats we can get to pass the changes that an Obama administration is hoping to make.

[iamjoy]

76. Warner Already Said No

and Sebelius also has a Republican Lt Gov.

[JCMach1]

84. No sacrifice needed with Bob Graham

[slick8790]

3. I didn't know everything you posted, but I did know enough about Kaine to agree with you.

I think he'd be absolutely Obama's best bet.

[TheDonkey]

4. I like Kaine. One of my top 3

Webb, Biden, Kaine

[FSogol]

5. I'd say Kaine has the best odds at the moment.

Of course, judging by Obama campaign so far, it could be someone not on any of the lists.

[SuperTrouper]

8. Wow, excellent and informative post

I need to check out Gov. Kaine's website. I still think the Top 5 are: Mark Warner, Bill Nelson, Brian Schweitzer, Kathleen Sebelius and definitely Tim Kaine is in the mix.

[Perky]

6. I think Kaine would be a fine choice for the second term

I am not sure he would be seen as having the chops given Obam's perceived inexperience.

It is a bit of a risk


How about this

Obama Webb. They win. Webb resigns his Senate seat. Kaine takes it on to finish out the term which ends in 2012. THen Webb quits to run for the Senate and Kaine becomes the running mate and the heir apparent to Obama's legacy.

I am looking at the political horizon and I just don't see who the Dems run in 1016 as an encore to Obama. Kaine is thebest option to fill his shoes in eight years.

I am just not sure he is the right guy for the first term.

[Barack_America]

10. The choice is, attack McCain's strengths or his weaknesses?

My personal feelings are that selecting a VP based on Obama's perceived foreign policy/military inexperience only serves to focus the debate on those issues.

However, going after McCain's weakness with the (soft) evangelicals brings the debate home, and reinforces the idea that Obama and the Democratic party really represent average Americans. That would be one hell of a lasting majority.

People want to focus on the economy, which is a Democratic strength. I just don't see what we gain by forcing the foreign policy debate into the limelight.

[iamjoy]

77. Or Kaine Appoints Warner

Gov. Kaine could appoint Mark Warner to Webb's vacated Senate seat. Although isn't Mark Warner already going for John Warner's seat?

[Shae]

79. That's a little convoluted . . .

and I think if Obama's VP quit after 4 years to run for his old job, that doesn't make Obama look good.

Why would Webb agree to that anyway?

[On the Road]

9. The Resume is Good, but the Personal Presence is Not

Shortly after he was elected, Kaine was chosen to give the Democratic response on national TV to a Republican speech (forget the situation). He had a deer in the headlights look and did not seem comfortable or in command.

Presence is very important. That is why despite his negatives, Webb would be a more politically effective choice.

[Barack_America]

15. He has improved considerably. I found him to be one of Obama's best surrogates...

On the Sunday morning shows during the primary season.

There was something about him and his consistent on-point defense of Obama that struck something in me and encouraged me to learn more about him.

Here's a more recent video.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CkQ04Tk7dTk&feature=related

He certainly doesn't have Barack's charisma, but he's become a very strong advocate.

[redqueen]

11. Hah... when I read "Tim Kaine", for some reason, I thought of

Tim Calhoun.

It's not even that funny!

[grantcart]

12. pretty damn good case - missionary?

Was he a lay missionary?

What are his draw backs -objectively speaking?

Do you have a good youtube example of how he handles himself on TV?

[goodgd_yall]

33. On the missionary experience

Since he was a lay missionary with the Jesuits, this will NOT help to attract evangelical support unless they are Catholic evangelicals (or something close to that). The fundamentalist Protestant religions view Jesuits with great suspicion.

[Barack_America]

40. Granted. But it's still more than McCain.

And really I think evangelicals are not monolithic. There are the hardcore variety that are always going to vote Republican. And there are the "soft" variety who are just looking for a little more acknowledgment of their religious beliefs. These are the ones who I think are in play, even by a former Jesuit missionary.

But, really, the strength of this former experience would really be with Hispanics.

[grantcart]

47. He won't be perceived as a jesuit as much as a lay person who sacrificed

They are especially warry of McCain and now that he has dissed them in a major way by refusing to meet Graham they would be a lot more welcoming.

[Barack_America]

61. To reply to the rest of your post...

His drawbacks are:

1). The Republican Lt. Gov. would take over for the last year of his term.

2). He has stated he has a "faith-based opposition" to abortion, which may not sit well with Hillary's supporters.

3). He doesn't bring any appreciable FP/military experience to the table.


He does, however, handle himself very well on television. I combed the youtubes, but unfortunately I can't find any recent videos from the Sunday morning shows. However, I feel that he comes across as personable, straight-forward and 100% on message. I honestly think he will appeal to a pretty wide swath of Americans. A poster below noted that he apparently wiped the floor with Pawlenty last weekend on FoxNews and I'll try to find a video of that.

ETA: Yee haw! The video is on Fox News Sunday's main page.
http://www.foxnews.com/fns/

[goodgd_yall]

13. My case for and against

Against
1. I'm one of those who thinks foreign policy experience is more important than executive experience, so I don't believe any governor adds to the ticket.

2. His missionary experience was as a Jesuit---that has NO cred with evangelicals

3. He's anti death penalty and anti gun which is more fodder for the "Obama is a left-wing liberal." Although I find those positions very attractive, it may scare off independents, cross-over Republicans, and conservative Democrats.

For
1. He might make Virginia a definite win for Obama.

Thanks for your contribution! :-)

[goodgd_yall]

16. I think he is against abortion, but....

I don't know if it's a personal belief that does not affect his policy or that it does affect policy. Anyone know?

[Barack_America]

23. He describes himself as having a "faith-based opposition", but supports Roe v. Wade.

At least he has never spoken out about it, that I can find.

He is against "partial-birth" abortion and, perhaps of a greater concern, is for consent laws.

However, he's also against abstinence-only based sexual education.

A definite mixed-bag. In my opinion, this is his one major drawback. However, I find it extremely unlikely that he would ever try to shape Obama's platform on abortion. The concern in this regard would be his consideration as a future presidential candidate.

[goodgd_yall]

31. This makes him look better to me on this issue

Actually more Democrats than I'd like to admit to, supported the "partial-birth" abortion ban. I think they were duped. If he supports Roe v. Wade and liberal teaching of sex education, then I think he's going in the right direction there.

As I posted, though---my main concern is making the Democratic look even more liberal. I'm not sure how strong the stigma of the label "liberal" still is; with the disaster of the Bush years, maybe it won't have as much power, but I'm thinking not that much has changed.

[Barack_America]

35. Well, then there you have it.

I happen to have a pretty hardline stance on abortion rights, but I recognize that my views don't necessarily represent the majority in this country.

They'll try to paint anybody as a "liberal". I happen to think they'll have a hard time with Kaine. He's also (as I've heard) been noted for his fiscal responsibility as governor. Although he is in favor of raising taxes, which could be noted.

[Perky]

18. I am not sure he is anti-gun....but His position on the Death Penalty is

religiously based and it is a debate that would be interesting in and ot itself. Think of it....how do you assail the position without looking like you are attacking one's faith? This is particualry treacherous for McCain who does not appear to have much religiousity about him.


I think the anti-Death-penalty position might be an asset.

[mvd]

22. I'm not sure the DP will be much of an issue anyway

If it does come up, yes, he should mention his faith. Being anti-gun could be far more troublesome (if he is.)

[goodgd_yall]

26. Not so much an issue

since it's really a state issue, but it lends support to the whole "liberalphobia" that the Republicans are banking on in their campaign.

[mvd]

29. I think we can overcome that issue

I explained more in another post.

[goodgd_yall]

24. Anti-gun may be overstating it

but he did impose restrictions on gun show sales and concealed weapons, I've read. (BTW, I think this is a decent summary of pros and cons---a subjective one, but interesting http://www.theleftanchor.com/vice_president_profile/page/2/) However, since the catalyst for these laws was the Virginia Tech killings, I think the argument against Kaine on gun control migh be pretty weak.

I think there is such strong support for the death penalty, that even when one says it is based on one's faith, it's met with disrespect. The answer is always "what about the victims?" and then there is recounting of horrible individual crimes to prop up the support for the death penalty.

[mvd]

28. I don't think there is such strong support

Yes, there are still many people for it, but not like before. I think the economy, Iraq, health care, and other issues like guns will be more on people's minds. I am not pro-gun, but can do some compromising on the issue.

[Barack_America]

32. So they'd have to bring up Virginia Tech to nail him on gun control?

No way.

And regarding the death penalty, he had upheld several executions during his time as governor. So although he's technically against it, he has upheld it as VA law.

Not a lot of ground there either, IMO.

[goodgd_yall]

34. What I meant was

those opposing his gun control actions in Virginia will quickly, I think, back off if the context of the Virginia Tech killings is brought up. It would be hard to criticize a governor for tightening gun laws after his state has experienced such a colossal tragedy.

[woolldog]

17. any foreign policy/military cred?

[Perky]

19. None.

[Perky]

20. None.

[Barack_America]

30. Is Obama ever going to match McCain on that point?

Probably not.

With the country in the current shape that it is, economically, I personally place executive experience far ahead of military cred.

But that's just my opinion.

[woolldog]

39. No, but choosing a milit/foreign policy guru as VP

would undercut the moral authority McCain has as a veteran when he talks about the war or the military. Right now his views are given legitimacy becuase of this, even though his views are wrong. However when you have someone who is also a veteran/military hero who doesn't agree with him and is clear about that and is VP or P, then the focus shifts to the actual policy and not the character of the person (war hero or not, veteran or not) articulating that policy. I think once that happens, McCain loses the debate.

I'm of two minds on this issue. If the VP pick is someone who can bring VA, then the national security issue may not be so significant. If Obama wins PA and VA then he'll probably win the election.

[Barack_America]

44. That raises another good point.

Obama will win PA. I can essentially guarantee you that. The record Democratic voter registration in Philly and the surrounding suburbs makes that almost a lock. The turnout in Philly is going to be beyond imagination. Trust me.

When you combine a record Philly turnout with strong support in the surrounding counties, the rest of the state simply cannot touch that. They don't have the population to overcome those numbers.

McCain has a very, very uphill battle here, which is why he's already advertising here like mad.

In any case, I happen to think that Obama will win this election, despite his VP choice. So, that being said, is selecting the VP solely on ticket electability a little shortsighted? Shouldn't an equal concern be who Obama trusts with his agenda and feels he can really work with?

That, in my mind, is another vote for Kaine. These guys really see eye-to-eye.


Edited: to correct an unforgivable typo.

[woolldog]

49. I'm not that worried about Philly.

I'm more concerned about counties like Alleghany, and some of the mid-size and small counties where Obama will need to keep it respectable in order to have a chance.

For example,

--Kerry won Fayette county in 2004 (29,000 to 25,000). Clinton crushed Obama there 79%-21% (Obama only received 6,000 votes compared to Clinton's 23,000).

--Kerry won Lackawanna county in 2004 (59,000 to 44,000). Clinton crushed Obama there 75%-25%. He only received 15,000 votes, Clinton 43,000)

--Luzerne county, Kerry won in the general, yet Obama was crushed by Clinton again 75%-25%, Obama 15K votes, Clinton 48K.

These are democratic counties where Obama is getting crushed in PA. Do these voters have a strong preference for Clinton or a strong aversion to Obama? I suspect it's a bit of both. Will they stay home in November or come out and vote? If they do come out and vote will they vote for Obama or for McCain???

Remember Kerry kept it respectable in these mid-sized counties, won overwhelmingly in Philly and still only eeked out a win against Bush in 2004

[Barack_America]

51. My point is that...

Philly, Chester, Delaware, Montgomery and Bucks are the counties that carry the state. That's where the population is. That's how Democrats win elections in PA. That's how Kerry did it, Rendell, Casey, etc.

The turnout will be amazing and there is a seemingly endless pool of unregistered voters.

Add to that Republicans aren't exactly fired up about McCain here. Don't forget the support that Huckabee and Paul got here. And the Republican turnout...pathetic!

http://www.electionreturns.state.pa.us/

Then there's Rendell, Casey...

PA's looking good! :D

[woolldog]

53. I understand your point, but

Kerry was +600 in the Philly area right? But he only won by 200K. That means he was minus 400K in the rest of the state.

But he kept the margins respectable in these areas that Obama is losing BIG. If Obama doesn't keep it respectable in these areas the run up he gets in Philly won't matter.

[Barack_America]

54. That's assuming...

That Kerry maxed out Philly, which he didn't.

But we haven't seen a good PA poll recently, so I guess we'll see.

[Barack_America]

37. A better analysis of Kaine....and, he plays HARMONICA!

lol. In any case here's a video on that.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=smvxB4RvOxQ&feature=related


Here's a link to the excellent analysis.

http://www.theleftanchor.com/2008/05/vice-presiden-3.html


Thanks!

:hi:

[gmudem]

38. Another positive about Kaine is his age

He is only 50 years old so he would certainly be young enough to run for president in 2016 after 8 years of Obama.

And also he is term-limited and his term ends next year. Yes VA would have a Republican governor for a year but that might be an acceptable consequence and he wouldn't have a mandate to do much because he wasn't elected to be governor.

Kaine isn't my #1 choice but I would certainly be happy with that choice.

[Perky]

41. ? He looks like he is in his early thrirties lol

He does come across as the good catholoc boy who lives next door..... Not a bas thing... He just looks like a kid.

[dtotire]

42. Seems like a good choice n/t

[Phillycat]

43. Here's my case against:

99% of the electorate: "Who the F is Tim Kaine?"

[gmudem]

46. They would have the same reaction to almost any pick

With the exception of Edwards and Clinton, and maybe Wes Clark, most of the general public does not who Kaine or Webb or Sebelius or Schweitzer is.

Fortunately there will be several months for the American people to learn about who the VP is going to be.

[Liberal_Stalwart71]

45. I have more positives!

He is an extremely well accomplished governor of VA and very popular!!

He has command of the issues and I was very impressed with how he handled my governor, MD's Martin O'Malley during the primaries when O'Malley was shilling for Hillary.

I was also impressed with how Kaine mopped the floor with Pawlenty on Faux News with Chris Wallace this past Sunday. He was brilliant and attacked Pawlenty with issues, not soundbites and not talking points.

[Barack_America]

48. I'm sorry I missed that.

Thanks for mentioning it!

[Barack_America]

64. Found a link to that video!

http://www.foxnews.com/fns/

Thanks again for mentioning it!

:hi:

[Unsane]

50. The big negative = his name is like "Caine," i.e., the fundies'll go nuts.

[Barack_America]

52. McCain?

Which basically means "of Cain" or "son of Cain".

Not much better.

[Unsane]

66. True, but Obama needs all the good PR he can get (with the fundies)

Half of them think he's a muslim.

[Barack_America]

68. So wouldn't running with a former missionary help?

Even if he is Catholic?

:shrug:

[Unsane]

69. Perhaps, but nothing is too asinine for them. They would create an issue out of 'Obama-Kaine'

I'm willing to bet.

[Douglas Carpenter]

55. with just two and a half years experience as Governor...his resume might

appear a bit too thin for the job of Vice President of the United States.
Especially considering that Sen. Obama is criticized for not have enough experience - and that is with 4 years in the U.S. Senate

[Barack_America]

56. Lieutenant Governor (to Mark Warner) and Mayor of Richmond before that.

He's basically been serving in an executive fashion for the past 10 years.

[Douglas Carpenter]

57. Sen. Obama had several years in the Illinois State Senate - but nobody mentions it

or even seems to consider it a part of his experience.

Even if Gov. Kaine has other relevant executive experience - it seems to be customary that to be considered for V.P. it is usually expected that that their resume includes a longer period of time either as a Governor, Senator or some other more higher profile position.

Given that Sen. Obama is criticized for lack of experience, I tend to think they will be looking for a V.P. nominee who will irrefutably balance out that criticism.

[Casper]

58. Kaine is a good guy but he has some problems.

-Governor Kaine claims to be against the death penalty "until it's fair" but has overseen 5 executions.
-Governor Kaine is a member of the "Pro-Life Democrats". Most of us pro-choice folks (myself included) have issues with the whole idea of "pro-life" which suggests that we are anti-life.
-Governor Kaine used fiscal responsibility as a keystone of his campaign but Virginia now faces very serious budget shortfalls.

Surely we can find a good solid Democrat without these shortcomings, can't we?

I'd take Biden, Clark, Clinton over Governor Kaine.

[nebula]

62. If you're holding out for an anti-death penalty candidate

you'll be waiting a very long time.


edit: I don't think Obama is anti-death penalty anyway.

[Barack_America]

65. His stated position is that he feels the death penalty should be available...

To express a public outrage for a crime so heinous that imprisonment alone does not satisfy the public will.

(that's Obama's position)

Kaine is morally against the death penalty, but has upheld it as Virginia law during his governorship.

[sfam]

60. Not to be blunt about this, but I'd prefer Kaine do something about our damn traffic hassles...

in Northern VA, that is. I know he has a hard road to hoe where the Senate is concerned, but jeeze. Lets keep the guy around a year or to more, or I'm gonna go postal one of these days. Traffic in Northern VA SUCKS. Kaine promised to do something about this...

Just sayin...


That said, if you wanna flat out win VA, Warner is the guy but he'll cost you a senate seat. I think Kaine helps in lots of other states, so he may be a decent pick anyways.

[Liberal_Stalwart71]

78. I'm in D.C./MD. I feel your pain!! Traffic is a disgrace here!! n/t

[nebula]

63. Kaine is in my top three

along with Brian Schweitzer and Sherrod Brown.

[SuperTrouper]

85. I agree, Kaine is a good choice

along with Schweitzer and Florida's Bill Nelson.

[Bread and Circus]

67. very interesting.

[smiley_glad_hands]

70. Oh hell no. Let him finish his term and he can serve in the admin.

No more repug governors. NO. NO. NO.

[Barack_America]

72. Most likely we're going to lose either a governor or a Senator.

Given that choice, I pick a governor.

And the time left in his term would only be one year. And someone mentioned upthread that the Republican Lt. Gov. has expressed no interest in running for a full term.

[MadBadger]

71. The ObaMacKaine ticket?

eesh!

[LordJFT]

73. He's also got the washington outsider status, which jives with Obama's message

[RBInMaine]

74. Would be a good choice to strongly consider. Adds balance to the ticket.

[autorank]

75. I worked very hard for Kaine

Mostly because I promised to move if Pat Robertson, er Kilgore, were elected. Went to the Williamsburg
Inaugural etc. So take this comment as sincere. Three problems:
1) Very poor public speaker and that's generous.
2) Middle of the road nothingness - no boldness. I wrote to both Warner when he was leaving
suggesting that he en masse, restore the voting rights of 200,000 ex felons. I pointed out that taking
voting rights away from felons was a long term plan after the Compromise of 1877 to strip blacks of
voting rights in the South; that of these 200,000 few had committed violent crimes, etc. What do I
get but a letter back form Kaine saying that Warner has done better than any VA governor in restoring
felon voting rights, why they've gotten 5% of the 200,000 the right to vote. Utter bull shit, no
courage. I mean the Republican Gov of Florida promised to make restoration automatic and did, with
some delays that are very wrong, but he tried (and is getting more votes restored to ex felons than any
Democratic governor in the South. What is wrong with Democrats, governors, who won't learn their
history and do this, let everyone vote. Weak, very weak.
3) Ever drive in Northern Virgnia (I'm sure that you have)? Remember the promises, note the lack of
any delivery on that (and I don't care about excuses, it failed)

The Democrats don't need Kaine. Virginia needs a dynamic liberal-populist set of candidates. This
centrist stuff is tedious and largely over. They got turnout in Richmond, Portsmouth, and Norfolk,
for example, three to seven times that of the 2004 primary. Mostly black voters found someone they
cared about. The party needs to look at why they get such lousy turnout again and again in those areas?

[Rowdyboy]

80. Nicely written and well presented but I disagree for several reasons.....

I do like Kaine but I really believe with Warner drawing a large turnout in the senate race, Obama will carry the state without a Virginian on the ticket. As autorank noted, Kaine has some positions that would really not be helpful to Obama and his utter lack of foreign policy expertise would compound Obama's problem in that area. Lastly, I don't trust the Republican Lt Gov to keep his word. I'm not knowledgeable in Virginia law but I know Virginia governors can't run for reelection. Probably since lt gov Bolling would only serve one year of the term he would be allowed to run in 2009 for a full term (thats how it worked here in Mississippi before we voted to allow 2nd terms a few years ago). I sure would hate to lose that seat when we have so many good candidates to choose from.

Some would argue that Obama needs to reach out to the Clinton camp which also argues against Kaine if you agree with that school of thought.

Again, I really respect Kaine and expect to see him play a leading roll in the next administration. I just don't see him in that particular role. That said, I've never been particularly good at predicting politics! :shrug:

Good luck!

[Barack_America]

81. Thanks!

I appreciate your input and will take it into consideration.

My immediate concern about the argument that Warner will be enough to bring out the Dems for Obama is the Independents. That they'll vote for Warner is no guarantee that they'll also vote for Obama over McCain.

:hi:

[Rowdyboy]

82. Its ultimately unknowable but its always fun to speculate.....

I feel better about this election than I have since 1992.

[Celticsfan]

83. Too moderate for my taste

I want a progressive there.