before you say only three!? remember that Kerry won Michigan by 51-48 in 2004.
The latest Rasmussen Reports poll in Michigan shows Barack Obama attracting 45% of the vote while John McCain earns 42%. This is the fourth poll in Michigan since McCain wrapped up the Republican nomination and all four have found the candidates within three points of each other. In both May and late-March McCain held a statistically insignificant one-point lead.
Obama has reduced the gap among male voters and now trails McCain by eleven percentage points among men. That’s down from a nineteen point deficit last month. Obama leads by thirteen among women, a figure that has changed little. McCain is supported by 83% of Republicans while Obama currently gets the vote from 74% of Democrats. In our previous survey, those numbers were 84% and 70% respectively. McCain now leads by five points among Michigan’s unaffiliated voters, down from a thirteen point lead in May.
Obama has a solid lead among voters under 30, but older voters tend to be fairly evenly divided.
The current survey was taken six days after Obama clinched the Democratic Presidential Nomination. During that time, he has enjoyed a modest bounce nationally in the Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll.
McCain is viewed favorably by 58% of the state’s voters,. Obama by 54%. For both candidates, those figures reflect a four-point improvement compared to a month ago. As has been seen in other polling throughout the country, opinions are more firmly held about Obama. Thirty percent (30%) have a Very Favorable opinion of the Democratic nominee while 24% hold a Very Unfavorable opinion. For McCain, those number are 18% Very Favorable and 16% Very Unfavorable.
http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_20082/2008_presidential_election/michigan/election_2008_michigan_presidential_election