Ickes At The Alamo: Clinton's Delegate Counter Warns Of Defections At DNC Meeting; TX SDs for Obama

[ProSense]

Thomas B. Edsall

Ickes At The Alamo: Clinton's Delegate Counter Warns Of Defections At DNC Meeting

The major dispute over the Florida and Michigan delegations to the Democratic convention in Denver has now boiled down to Hillary Clinton's demand for full seating with no sanctions, and an alternative proposal, likely to be backed by Obama, to seat the delegations with either half a vote granted to each delegate, or to cut each delegation in half.

The Clinton proposal -- which now faces tough, if not insurmountable, odds at the Saturday, May 31 meeting of the Rules and Bylaws Committee (RBC) - would give the New York Senator 55 more delegates than would go to Obama.

The alternative of either halved votes or halved delegations would net Clinton only 20 or so delegates, depending on the details. Obama could afford to concede a 20-plus delegate gain to Clinton without endangering his overall delegate advantage.

Harold Ickes, Clinton's chief delegate hunter, warned that there may be some defections among the 13 RBC members who have endorsed Hillary. If Ickes and his allies cannot hold all their troops in line, a motion before the RBC to seat all 210 Florida and 156 Michigan delegates with a full vote each would face certain defeat.

If defeated at the RBC on Saturday, the Clinton forces are expected to file an appeal to the Democratic convention credentials committee and possibly, failing that, to the full convention.

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HALPERIN’S TAKE: How the Democratic Nomination Fight Could Go Beyond Next Wednesday

If Clinton wants to go on after Tuesday’s primaries, what will the arguments/actions be that will signal her determination?

1. File a lawsuit (or have someone else file a lawsuit…) challenging the DNC’s decision on Florida and/or Michigan.

2. Say she plans to appeal at the convention anything short of a DNC ruling on Florida and Michigan fully in her favor.

3. Highlight the fact that Obama doesn’t have a majority, if the number of delegates needed goes higher after Saturday’s DNC decision on Florida and Michigan.

4. Argue that since elected (a/k/a “pledged”) and automatic (a/k/a “super) delegates can change their minds at the convention, even an apparent Obama majority doesn’t mean he will have a majority in Denver.

5. Wait around to see if anything pops out of Obama’s closet.

6. Suggest her supporters insist that she fight all the way to the convention, lest they be alienated and vote for McCain.

7. Put out a campaign travel schedule which includes stops in Battle Creek, Michigan and Tampa, Florida.

8. Send an e-mail fundraising appeal.

9. Announce she wants to hear more from her supporters before making a decision.

10. Give a big speech, with Perot-style charts and graphs, arguing that she is a far stronger candidate against McCain.

Texas Democratic Party chairman sides with Obama over Clinton

By JOHN MORITZStar-Telegram staff writer

AUSTIN -- Texas Democratic Party Chairman Boyd Richie endorsed presidential candidate Barack Obama on Thursday.

His decision gives the Illinois senator a huge boost heading into pivotal battle at the national level in which party leaders are looking for a way to seat the disputed delegations from Florida and Michigan at the summer nominating convention in Denver.

"I believe Sen. Obama is the candidate who can best provide the leadership and change Texans desire," Richie said in a statement. "Too many Texas families find themselves unable to make ends meet, much less save and invest in the future, due to Republican policies that burden the middle class and divide Americans. Sen. Obama has the skill and ability to unite Americans from all walks of life and put our country back on the right track."

Obama spokesman Josh Earnest said of the endorsement, "We're pleased that Chairman Richie has joined our grassroots movement that will bring the kind of change to Austin and Washington that working families across America can believe in."

Richie's decision, just one week before he is scheduled to preside over the party's state convention in Austin, could deliver as many as five superdelegates to Obama as he closes in on clinching the nomination in the battle against New York Sen. Hillary Clinton.

As party chairman, Richie is a superdelegate. So is his wife, Betty, a longtime party activist from Wichita Falls. And as party chairman, Richie can name three so-called add-on superdelegates to the national convention in Denver.

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Update: One of them is now official. Here is the statement from Boyd Richie.

"Today, I am proud to announce my support for Senator Barack Obama for President of the United States. I believe Senator Obama is the candidate who can best provide the leadership and change Texans desire. Too many Texas families find themselves unable to make ends meet, much less save and invest in the future, due to Republican policies that burden the middle class and divide Americans. Senator Obama has the skill and ability to unite Americans from all walks of life and put our country back on the right track."

"I am also grateful for Senator Obama's commitment to help build the Texas Democratic Party. Senator Obama and his campaign understand something that Texans have known for at least a couple of years - that when Democratic candidates invest the time and resources necessary, Texas Democrats have the numbers to compete and win across every region of our great state. We made progress in 2006, and in 2008, the Texas Democratic Party is more energized, better organized, and we are poised to make significant gains this fall."

"This was a difficult decision to make, because I have great respect for Senator Clinton and her Texas supporters. I sincerely appreciate how hard she worked in Texas to deliver a message that resonated with so many voters, and I commend her campaign and the important role she played in the historic participation our Party is experiencing this year. As always, the Texas Democratic Party will conduct party business with absolute fairness and respect for every Democrat, without regard to whom one supports in the primary or convention, and I am confident Texas Democrats will unite and work together side by side to win this November."

And Betty Richie's statement...

"Today, I am proud to announce my support for Senator Barack Obama for President of the United States. As a member of the DNC representing the Non-Urban/Ag Caucus, I strongly believe Senator Obama can provide the leadership rural Texas needs and deserves. Under the current Republican
administration, rural Texas has clearly been put out to pasture. Whether it is trying to deal with skyrocketing diesel fuel prices or having access to quality healthcare, Republican politicians continue to ignore our needs."

"Under Senator Obama's administration, there is no doubt the issues of concern to rural Texas will be put front and center. The futures of our families are far too important to leave in the hands of any Republican. It is time for a Democrat to put our country and our state back on the right track."

"Because I have such great respect for Senator Clinton and her historic campaign, this endorsement was not easy to make. But I believe in my heart it is the right decision for rural Texas and the Texas Democratic Party. It is time for our Party to unite and move forward to victory in November. Only by working together can we accomplish this goal."

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edited to fix link

[ProSense]

1. Sorry

to interrupt Pfleger-gate.

[cliffordu]

2. You should know better, SHAME on you. SHAME.

Thanks for posting this. The trollsters and the vehement haters on the latest pastorbater threads don't know how important stuff like this really is.


Or they don't care, which would be really tragic.


Anyway, K and R

[blogslut]

4. No apologies needed

Texas - it's gonna shock the nation. Hee hee. :)

[Coexist]

8. pot-stirrer.

[ProSense]

3. FL, MI, what's going on?

There are 30 members of the DNC’s Rules and Bylaws Committee, and here’s the breakdown: 13 back Clinton, eight support Obama, and nine are uncommitted, including the two co-chairs, Alexis Herman VA and James Roosevelt. A majority vote of those present is needed to pass a resolution or judgment.

CLINTON (13): Hartina Flournoy DC; Donald L. Fowler SC; Jaime Gonzalez, Jr. TX; Alice A. Huffman CA; Harold Ickes DC; Ben Johnson DC; Elaine C. Kamarck MA; Eric Kleinfeld DC; Mona Pasquil CA; Mame Reiley VA; Garry S. Shay CA; Elizabeth M. Smith DC; and Michael Steed MD.

OBAMA (8): Martha Fuller Clark NH; Carol Khare Fowler SC; Janice Griffin MD; Thomas C. Hynes IL; Allan Katz FL; Sharon Stroschein SD; Sarah Swisher IA; and Everett Ward NC.

UNCOMMITTED in addition to Herman and Roosevelt (7): Donna Brazile DC; Mark Brewer MI; Ralph Dawson NY; Yvonne Atkinson Gates NV; Alice Germond WV; David T. McDonald WA; and Jerome Wiley Segovia VA.

Here are the results of the earlier contests:
MICHIGAN: (Jan. 15): 157 total: 128 pledged, 29 supers
55% Clinton (translates to 73 delegates)
40% Uncommitted (55 delegates)

FLORIDA: (Jan. 29): 211 total: 185 pledged, 26 supers
50% Clinton (105 delegates)
33 % Obama (67 delegates)
14% Edwards (14 delegates -- 9 of these have pledged to vote for Obama)

The Los Angeles Times has a good primer on the issues at stake this weekend, saying that there are two issues before the Rules committee. “The first involves whether to seat 368 delegates from the renegade states along with 49 superdelegates, and if so, how. Party legal experts issued a memo this week advising that, under party rules, committee members can restore no more than half of the states' convention delegates. So if the panel decided to recognize Florida and Michigan, it could allow the states to send half of their delegates to the convention. Or it could seat all of the delegates and give each half a vote. The second -- and far trickier -- issue is how to divvy up those delegates between Clinton and Obama.”

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[KAZ]

5. Don't know if I told you lately, but you are a real DU treasure! K&R

[ProSense]

9. Thanks

for the kind comment and the K&R. :)

[TexasObserver]

Hillary is going to get her ass kicked tomorrow in that meeting.

Her own troops are abandoning ship, because they don't want to go down with her.

Once the deal is made with Florida and Michigan, she's down to peddling her LIE that no one is buying, her "I have the popular vote" meme.

[guruoo]

10. 214,470

DEMOCRATIC PRESIDENTIAL MAP:
Total Votes: 35,098,560

Hillary Clinton- 17,656,515
Barack Obama- 17,442,045
John Edwards- 1,000,862
Uncommitted- 288,037
Bill Richardson- 105,377
Dennis Kucinich- 102,069
Joe Biden- 81,198
Others- 42,922
Mike Gravel- 36,111
Chris Dodd- 35,042

Total Delegates

Barack Obama- 1,557.5
Hillary Clinton- 1,465.5
John Edwards- 27
Bill Richardson- 0
Dennis Kucinich- 0
Joe Biden- 0
Chris Dodd- 0
Mike Gravel- 0


Total States/Caucuses/US Territories Won

Barack Obama- 34
Hillary Clinton- 20

3 states remain

[K Gardner]

6. THIS is what needs to be talked about .. This is what we need to be focusing on.. thank you ! K&R

[redqueen]

7. Aaaaaaaaaaaand we saw this unfolding how many weeks ago?

Yet still with the charade. And the FL / MI BS.

Argh.

K&R

[me b zola]

11. K&R

[grantcart]

12. Thanks

1) RE: the Edsall article

Remember a month ago there was hysteria about the "Nuclear Option" ?

What people don't realize is that Hillary and Obama don't have their people on the committee outside a couple of key people. These are all really long time senior party people whose committment to the party out weigh their committment to the candidates. There are people on the committee who happen to support Obama and Clinton but who really support the Party first.

This is how it should be.

2) Hallperin

The compelling reason that she is going to stop is financial. Her fund raising has ground down to nothing and her surrogates have started going elsewhere. Rendell, Carville, Patterson, Feinstein, Schumer all have made it pretty clear that they are not going on.

3)Super Delegates

This is so well choreographed you would think that you were at the ballet.

A couple of days ago this exchange happened


- Switched DNC Kevin Rodriquez (VI) from Obama to Clinton. He switched from Clinton to Obama on 5/10. We got confirmation from the Clinton campaign that he has re-endorsed Clinton
- Added DNC Ben Pangelinan (GU) for Obama


So Obama 'loses' a super delegate from Virgin Island and Obama says fine I will pull one out from Guam.


Clinton Texas supporters are coming up with a bunch of challenges as it gets ready for its convention and baam a couple high powered Texas super delegates.

Obama is the coolest guy to ever run for President.

He keeps his ammunition dry and locked away. He only uses a bullet when he needs one and never uses three when one will do. This use of understatement is a demonstration of patience and self confidence can only be described by a single word - Presidential.


Now can we go back to the crazy pastor show?

[dmr]

13. I'm so angry about all this crap

Fuck this bullshit!

The leaders of these 2 states should own up to their mistake of arrogance, and not let Clinton disrupt the outcome they, the states, deserve. The states knew (as did Clinton) what the ramifications were before they snubbed their nose to the DNC, their voters, 48 other states and the rules!

If those who break the rules are not held accountable, then what will stop another disaster from happening in future primary elections? I hold Bush* accountable for all he and his bandits have done/committed. Why should Democrats not be held accountable?

Michigan held an illegitimate election. We had an illegitimate and dishonest ballot. There was a low turn out to what should have been an important primary. People stayed home or voted McCain to ward off Romney on the ballot because they were repeatedly told their vote would not matter . And because they were told the election didn't matter, many voters stayed home angry about a ballot privacy violation as their names and addresses were going to be given to the Parties as mailing lists.

I'm sick of arrogant and selfish fools and tools - those of which want to be the president and her appointees. If they can't be honest here, how can they assure anyone they can be honest and/or trustworthy sitting in public office? The answer: they cannot.

I'm fed up with this wasting of energy and resources. If the Democratic Party ends up compromised by those Democrats who practice Republican tactics of intellectual dishonesty and care more for their agendas than the rules they once agreed to, then maybe it's time for me to registered Independent to avoid the ulcer they are embedding in my heart.

I've about had it!

[Overseas]

14. I certainly hope May 31 will be the Ickes Alamo. Enough already. Shut him down.

I am one who believes the ugly divisive tactics of Ickes' win at all costs machine are hurting the Democratic party as a whole. I want so many Superdelegates to switch to Obama that the Ickes machine will have to concede. IT IS NOT THE SAME if Democrats bash vs. Right wing nut jobs bashing Obama. We're supposed to be the "big tent" party, so when distinguished party elders like the CLintons allow bashing techniques highlighting racial divides to be used, they dishonor the whole party.

[ProSense]

15. Hillary's camp concedes FL, MI violation, pleads for state parties' forgiveness

In today's conference call, the Clinton campaign conceded any rules-based or fairness-based argument for the full seating of the Florida and Michigan delegations. The Clinton campaign declared that, unlike Iowa, NH and South Carolina, Florida and Michigan did indeed break the DNC rules and without justification. The Clinton campaign expressly disagreed with the Michigan Democratic Party's contention that the DNC had selectively enforced its rules by allowing New Hampshire and South Carolina to break the sanctioned primary schedule, that Florida was not entitled to a safe harbor or waiver, and that the DNC had acted properly and within the rules when it stripped Florida and Michigan of its delegates.

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*** UPDATE *** Also on the conference call, the campaign repeated what it said it earlier in the week: that it wants the full Florida and Michigan delegations to be seated; that it wants them seated according to the January primary votes in each state; and that the "uncommitted" votes in Michigan can't be given to Obama -- they must remain uncommitted.

"We are hopeful and confident that after hearing all the arguments and hearing all the facts ... that all the delegates will be seated and all of them will have a full vote," Ickes said.

Moreover, the Clinton's campaign general counsel issued a letter to members of the DNC's Rules and Bylaws committee, which takes issue with the DNC analysis suggesting that Florida and Michigan must be penalized by at least 50%. "The RBC," the letter says, "has broad powers to fully reinstate the Florida and Michigan delegations. Rule 20(C)(7) allows the RBC to forgive violations when a state party and other relevant Democratic party leaders and elected officials have taken provable, positive steps and acted in good faith to bring the state into compliance with the DNC’s Delegate Selection Rules."

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