The McCain Blowout Fallacy

[AnarchoFreeThinker]

By Bob Beckel

Last weekend David Paul Kuhn on Politico wrote about the possibility that John McCain could beat Barack Obama by as many as 50 electoral votes this November. Kuhn cited several GOP strategists, Democrats and an anonymous RNC source who agreed with the "blowout" scenario, which is what a 50+ electoral victory would be.

To the contrary, I'm willing to go on the record saying that, barring an unforeseen scandal, a far more likely scenario is that John McCain will lose by at least 50 electoral votes in November - and possibly as many as 150....

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/articles/2008/05/the_mccain_blowout_fallacy.html

[featherman]

1. I think the "blowout" description was tongue in cheek originally

The original Politico article mentioned that the rosiest possible scenario for McCain might include 15 more EV's than Bush's narrow win.
If this is the rosiest GOP fantasy, they are in big trouble.

[Indenturedebtor]

2. Now that sounds more like the truth! n/t

[CK_John]

3. Major problem, What if McCain is not the candidate? n/t

[Sherman A1]

4. I think it will be a blowout

I don't think McCain will take a single state.

[wmbrew0206]

5. The scenario mentioned alluded to the following:

1. Obama will have a higher percentage of votes in a lot of southern state with a high % of African Americans, but not high enough to put him over the top in those states (ie MS, LA, AL, & SC)

2. McCain's being portrayed by the press as a Maverick/Moderate will help him in VA, OH, PA, MI, WS, and IA.

3. McCains's support for immigration reform will also help him with Hispanics in NM, NV, and FL.

I don't think all three will happen. I think this one will be close either way.

The first point seems very likely. I really don't Obama flipping any southern states outside VA. The third is also very likely with McCain probably winning FL and NV, but losing NM.

That brings us to point #2: If McCain picks Tom Ridge as his VP, that could help him win PA. If that happens, McCain just needs wins OH, MO, and VA (very possible)to win while losing NM, MI, WS, NM, and NV.

This one is WAY out there, but I thought I'd mention it, since when taken with some of McCain's past statements, it seemed to be possible. McCain might take Chris Cox as his VP to make a run at California. McCain is currently 9 points behind and if he adds Cox that might put the state in play. If McCain wins California, he can lose VA, OH, PA, NM, NV, MI, WS, NH, IA, CO, and IN and still win 271-267.