I wish Hillary supporters could see that this really is not Obama's fault

[FlyingSquirrel]

(Those who feel this is her time, that Obama stole her moment.)

Look at this graph with an open mind.



Hillary Clinton has never even reached the 45% mark. It would not have mattered WHO ran against her. If Obama had not run, Gore might have. Other candidates who did run would have gotten more media attention. Edwards would surely have been getting more press attention and better results (I wanted Edwards, but I'm not bitter about it any more.) The fact that Obama's numbers shot up after Edwards dropped out, while Hillary's did not, really confirms that there were a large number of people within the Democratic Party who just did not want Hillary Clinton. Look how quickly he surpassed her after Edwards dropped out, and stayed ahead of her.

To me, this shows that it doesn't really matter who had run against Hillary, (within reason of course) - she'd probably be in the same boat right now.

You're blaming the messenger for the message. The message is clear to anyone who has eyes to see and ears to hear.

The message was, "We're looking forward, not backward." The message was, "Not you, Hillary." Yes, there were a lot of women (and men) who wanted this to be the year of the woman. But there were a lot more who didn't want THIS woman.

And that is not something you can lay on Obama. Lay the blame wherever else you want, but it doesn't belong on his shoulders.

[bluestateguy]

1. Hillary was the Establishment candidate, running on name recognition

A large number of her voters simply followed the lead of their state's party bosses and voted for who they were told to vote for.

As I predicted, in due time, all of the opposition to Hillary would coalesce around one candidate. It was just a question of who and when. It could have been Edwards, or Richardson, or maybe Dodd. Once the anti-HIllary vote was consolidated behind Obama, she was finished.

[Xipe Totec]

3. Nice that you consider me part of "The Establishment"

What I see in the chart is different; Clinton supporters are solid and steady.

[FlyingSquirrel]

5. They are solid and steady.

But there aren't quite enough of them, and she doesn't have the ability to bring enough others into her fold. There are too many opposed to her.

[Oleladylib]

6. well not everyone is smart like Hillary supporters...we know that ..that's how we got Bush.

[haymakeragain]

13. We got Bush because of

Monica. Prove me wrong.

[mudesi]

10. Solid and steady? LOL

I think you mean "stubborn" and "arrogant".

[Andy823]

2. I agree.

I too was an Edwards supporter, and I was unhappy when he dropped out, but got over it, and now have chosen Obama over the remaining two candidates. I want to see some "real" change. I have never felt that Hillary would give us any kind of "real" change, just more of the same old politics. I also think that the problem was always there with Hillary's negatives, and like you feel that no matter who was running against her, she would have had the same problems she has now.

[FlyingSquirrel]

7. It would be interesting to see how Kucinich would be doing

if he were her only competition.

;)

[Cali_Democrat]

4. Very interesting analysis

K&R

[Perry Logan]

8. Face it guys, the Obaba wagon did not rise to the stars as planned. He deflated like a big balloon.

Early in the primaries, Barack Obama promised that he would win more people over the longer he campaigned. He said that every state becomes an "Obama state" once he goes there. But an interesting thing happened as winter turned to spring, and the people kept voting in record numbers. Hillary Clinton stole the momentum. Her popularity soared; her appeal broadened; and she steadfastly became the darling of the masses, even as Barack was crowned darling of the mass media.

It started back in New Hampshire, when Hillary "found her voice," but what really happened is that the American people have found Hillary. And there's nothing like raw data to illustrate the point:

*The Electoral Vote "Poll Watcher" shows Hillary gaining steam against McCain, now leading 310 to 228, with Hillary winning key states like Florida, North Carolina, and West Virginia. (Obama trails McCain by over 30 EV's.)

*Over the last three months, Hillary has won more contests, gained more votes, and earned more delegates. Since March 4th, she has gained nearly 500,000 more popular votes than Barack Obama as voters in crucial battleground states have made their voices known.

*More Americans have voted for Hillary than any other presidential candidate this cycle. In fact, more people have voted for Hillary than any other primary candidate in history - nearly 18 million so far.

*Tuesday, Hillary won 150,000 more votes than Obama in Kentucky and Oregon, even though delegate counts will be split fairly evenly.

*Hillary has now won nearly 64,000 more votes than Obama in total, when all caucuses and primaries are included.

Hillary Clinton just keeps winning. She is the candidate who closes the deal with voters. Despite being out-spent by margins of up to 4-to-1; despite anxious efforts by Obama, his surrogates, and an obedient press corps to convince people that the race is over. They keep voting for her anyway. Thankfully there's a stubborn gene in the American people, a natural resistance to authority, and maybe that's why the people love Hillary. They see her get up with the roosters every day, work herself to exhaustion in pursuit of a dream, and never give up or give in to the nay-sayers. Hillary, in spite of all the odds, has become a genuine Made in the USA hero, a leader for the people and no longer just "Bill's wife," the other Clinton.
http://noquarterusa.net/blog/2008/05/22/power-to-the-people/#more-2641

[anigbrowl]

14. You'll still be saying that when he takes the oath of office in January.

[haymakeragain]

17. Looks like Hillary never had enough to me. Still doesn't, even though

she trashes her Democratic colleague with the kitchen sink and the "hard working" dog whistle.

"Obaba"? Nice typo......not. I get it.

[Mike L]

24. Obama trashes himself with Rev. Wright.

and quips like small town people "cling to their guns and religion," etc. etc.

[haymakeragain]

32. Your whining and paraphrasing echoes the luny right, why is that?

He won. Deal.

[Mike L]

18. Great Information. Hillary can win, but Obama can't.

That's what counts.

[Turn CO Blue]

22. PROVE that she was outspent 4 to 1

[RUMMYisFROSTED]

44. There was a post around here, based on the just released FEC report,

that Obama outspent Clinton 1.2 to 1 in the month of April.

[eridani]

26. If she's winning, where are the delegates? n/t

[Mike L]

9. It's Obama supporters' fault that we lose in November.

Obama can't win either FL or OH. Clinton can. We must win one to win the Presidency.

Florida: McCain vs. Obama
Poll Date Sample McCain (R) Obama (D) Spread
RCP Average 03/15 - 05/20 -- 48.3 40.0 McCain +8.3

Florida: McCain vs. Clinton
Poll Date Sample McCain (R) Clinton (D) Spread
RCP Average 03/15 - 05/20 -- 43.0 46.0 Clinton +3.0

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/president/florida.html


Ohio: McCain vs. Obama
Poll Date Sample McCain (R) Obama (D) Spread
RCP Average 04/11 - 05/20 -- 45.3 43.0 McCain +2.3

Ohio: McCain vs. Clinton
Poll Date Sample McCain (R) Clinton (D) Spread
RCP Average 04/11 - 05/20 -- 42.0 50.3 Clinton +8.3

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/president/ohio.html

[book_worm]

12. He also leads in other states Hillary doesn't, but he's going to be the nominee because

Hillary ran a bad campaign. She thought she was on her way to the coronation and it just didn't happen. She has herself to blame.

[Mike L]

16. FL and OH will decide the election

It all comes down to FL and OH where the most swing state delegates are. The others are either red or blue states. Obama could win IW and NM possibly, but that wouldn't be enough delegates.

[FlyingSquirrel]

25. You're a bit off-topic here

The topic is whether Obama should be blamed for Hillary's failure to win the nomination.

However in response to your post, Obama has plenty of time to campaign in OH and FL. Also, here is a link to my latest analysis of the polling numbers where I do not cherry-pick polls but provide a very comprehensive and inclusive analysis showing the actual picture of the race today.



As you can see, right now Hillary has not quite captured Florida. And Obama would be able to eke out a win without FL and OH today. Given a little more time I'm sure he can solidify his lead in CO, WI, MI, and PA, and also win OH, NH; and possibly FL, MO and VA as well.

[Mike L]

28. I am on topic. You are assessing blame.

Your poll analysis is pure fantasy. Just stick to the real polls. The real state polls agree with the Dem primary results in FL and OH.

[FlyingSquirrel]

37. I did use the real polls.

All of them. So it's not fantasy, it's an accurate snapshot of the race at this time. But I'm not gonna discuss that anymore in this thread because this is a thread about whether Obama should be blamed for "taking Hillary's nomination away from her."

[nomorewhopper]

43. she lost

deal with it

she won't be winning any presidential contests so your "point" is moot.

[haymakeragain]

19. May polls don't mean dick.

Vote McSame then.

[Mike L]

20. Keep trying to convince urself we have a chance with BO.

We don't. McCain has a lock on FL and BO can't win OH.

[haymakeragain]

29. He's the nominee. I want a democrat, there's only one way.

Vote McSame, I really don't give a damn.

Obama will win it handily.

[Sundoggy]

11. Do you Hillbots actually ever READ anything, or just react?

Never mind, it's a rhetorical question, we all know the answer.

[FlyingSquirrel]

36. Please don't call other candidates' supporters names, it doesn't further the discussion.

[ColesCountyDem]

15. Having been demonized by the RNC and M$M for 16 years, she had a built-in 'top'

Rightly or wrongly-- and I believe VERY wrongly-- Sen. Clinton has been subjected to 16 years of non-stop bashing by the RNC and their house pets, the M$M. That sort of thing is hard to overcome, frankly, even if it's been total BS.

:(

[PoliticalAmazon]

21. They will have to acknowledge that it's Hillary's fault before they can understand....

it's not Obama's fault.

That is going to be a big pill for many to swallow. Far easier to project your anger on someone who isn't your hero, even if they are not the guilty one.

[FlyingSquirrel]

27. It may not be her fault

it may be more the fault of the RW and the media who has helped them demonize her. But it's definitely not Obama's fault.

[Mike L]

30. It's your fault for being an Obama supporter.

I don't blame BO for running. You should have seen that he can't win in November.

[FlyingSquirrel]

35. I think we might be getting somewhere now.

So you would not be as angry if any of the other candidates had taken this away from Hillary because of your belief that Obama can't win? Or are there no candidates out there that you feel would be electable except Hillary?

[Mike L]

39. John Edwards is electable.

Other than him, I doubt the other candidates this year could have won. Maybe Biden.

[PoliticalAmazon]

33. She gave them plenty of reasons to criticize her, and she has made it....

far worse during this campaign.

Indeed, I was a loyal supporter of the Clintons during Bill's administration, and spent a good deal of time researching and defending them.

Now I wonder, Was I so blind that I didn't see this before? I swear, there was a profound personality change in Hillary when she ran for the Senate. But still, I ask myself, Why didn't I see this before?

I've sense revisited some of the Clinton scandals, the ones that made it to the public and the ones that didn't, and they definitely got away with far more than they were ever critiized for by the rightwing.

[Mike L]

40. You forgot the Obama scandals-- Wright, Rezko, Ayers,

Farrakhan.

[BenDavid]

23. That poll means nothing. If it did then BHO would be winning all these

late states, but he has not and that in and of itself should tell folks he is the weaker of the candidates. Since 2/19 HRC has amassed about 400,000 vote lead over BHO. That too should tell you that obama is the weaker. Also, polls in ohio and fla. should also tell you something. He loses, but the one person that wins is HRC. Hell, on election night if Fox News says, Fox News projects Fla. for HRC, and projects Ohio for HRC, you can go to bed early and awake Wednesday morning and know that HRC won the presidency.....On the other hand if you see Fox News say Fox news projects Ohio and Fla for McCain you might decide to go, but if in that projecting and it is said, Fox News projects Pa. for McCain, you can go to bed and get a good nights sleep and come in here on Wednesday morning and tell us again how you want a fighter for our next nominee.......excuse me, but you got a fighter in HRC but the smooth silk talking, bho convinced you he was your saviour.....

[FlyingSquirrel]

31. That makes no sense.

The poll is an AVERAGE of all states. Obviously she will be doing better than Obama in some states. But he's doing better in more states, and among more voters (don't throw that popular vote thing out once again, it's bogus to not estimate caucus voters and to give Obama 0 in MI and you know it).

And you are also off-topic. The topic is whether it's his fault she lost her "moment". The fact is she never would have had her moment, and that this was not because of Obama.

[Mike L]

41. Clinton is doing better in the states that matter-- swing states.

Mainly FL and OH. That's what counts. Clinton would easily win the traditional blue states. Obama can't win the general election.

[kwenu]

34. They know its not Obama's fault. They hate those of us who didn't vote for Hillary.

We didn't vote like they wanted us to. So they're just kicking obama because its convenient. Obama didn't do anything to Hillary except run like the other candidates.

[OnionPatch]

38. Hillary was not entitled to the nomination, so there is no blame to lay anywhere.

I think the idea that Hillary was somehow entitled to the nomination is pure, unfettered elitism. What is this, a dynasty or something? If I wanted some sort of royal family, I would move to England.

[Bread and Circus]

42. Agreed. The bigger message I take from this is that at least half the party is NOT HAPPY

with the DLC/Clinton power axis and what it has done to the party.