The Swing States

[hfojvt]

Gene Lyons most recent Obama-bashing column asked a good question. What states can Obama win that Kerry lost? In order to win, Obama needs to win more states than Kerry, so what states have been competetive and might tip to Obama? So I looked up the swing states and made the following tables.

States Republicans won by small margins

state - victory margin - (margin 2000) - N(Nader vote)->(theoretical 2000 margin)
Iowa - .67 (-.31) - N(1.63) -> (-1.94)
New Mexico - .79 (-.06) - N(3.55) -> (-3.61)
Ohio - 2.11 (3.51) - N(2.5) -> (1.01)
Nevada - 2.59 (3.55) - N(2.46) -> (1.09)
Colorado - 4.67 (8.36) - N(5.25) -> (3.11)
Florida - 5.01 (.01) - N(1.63) -> (-1.62)
Missouri - 7.20 (3.34) - N(1.63) -> (1.71)
Virginia - 8.20 (8.04) - N(2.17) -> (5.87)

states that were close in 2000, but not in 2004

state-margin 2000 - (margin 2004) - N(Nader vote)->(theoretical margin)
Arkansas - 5.44 (9.76) - N(1.46) -> (3.98)
Arizona - 6.28 (10.47) - N(2.98) -> (3.3)
WVa - 6.32 (12.86) - N(1.65) -> (4.67)
Louisiana - 7.68 (14.51) - N(1.16) -> (6.52)

States Democrats won by small margins in 2004

Wisconsin - .38 (.22) - N(3.62) -> (3.84)
New Hampshire - 1.37 (-1.27) - N(3.9) -> (2.63)
Pennsylvania - 2.50 (4.17) - N(2.10) -> (6.27)
Michigan - 3.42 (5.13) - N(1.99) -> (7.12)
Minnesota - 3.48 (2.40) - N(5.2) -> (7.60)
Oregon - 4.16 (.44) - N(5.04) -> (5.48)
New Jersey - 6.68 (15.83) - N(2.97) -> (18.8)
Washington - 7.18 (5.58) - N(4.14) -> (9.72)

small margin in 2000

Maine - 5.11 (9.00) - N(5.70) -> (10.81)
Tennessee - 3.86 (14.27) - N(.95) -> (2.91)

First, it is scary/sad to see both Florida and Michigan on that list. Hillary needs to stop trying to stir them up for her own advantage and the credentials committee needs to placate them somehow. It is interesting that Gore, a southerner, made Arkansas, Louisiana and West Virginia close while Kerry/Edwards did not. Arizona was close in 2000, I believe, because a percentage of Arizona votes were not happy with the way Bush treated McCain in the primaries. Arizona is not in contention in 2008.

Gore seems to have done better in all of the swing states and that, to me, speaks of the popularity of Clinton even if he does enrage conservatives. Richardson would seem to be a logical choice as well. Not only for his experience, but also to possibly tip New Mexico, Nevada, Colorado, and Florida. The other difficulty is also keeping Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Minnesota in our column.

Senate races might be another factor, with Minnesota being one that we should be able to pick up. Although it is also interesting to see that Minnesota and Wisconsin are not as progressive as I previously thought.

[yardwork]

1. Obama can win most of the southern states, all of which Kerry lost.

If Obama is the nominee, he changes the electoral map considerably. Neither 2000 nor 2004 will be good predictors. Obama will win most of the southern states. Obama will win all the big reliably blue states, like California, New Jersey, and New York. Obama will also win the upper midwest states. McCain will win some of the lower midwestern states like Kentucky and West Virginia, his own state of Arizona, and a few other western states. That's it. That's all McCain will win.

It won't be a landslide, but Obama will comfortably win both the electoral and popular votes in November.

[TheFarseer]

2. whoa, slow down

Obama wins all of the upper mid-west states? all of the southern states? I think he puts them in play, certainly, but there is certainly no gaurantee he wins Montana or North Carolina.

[hfojvt]

4. Yardwork is from the east

so to her the "midwest" includes Illinois, Ohio, Indiana, Wisconsin, but not places like Nebraska and certainly not Montana. To the east coast, Pennsylvania is practically 'midwest'.

Montana had a margin of 20.5% in 2004. I'm not sure it can even be put in play.

[TheFarseer]

5. OK, but that doesn't fit the memo that

Clinton can win Ohio and Obama can't. I think it is correct that IA, MN, WI, MI is easier for Obama than Clinton, but OH seems to brush up against that troublesome Appalachia region.

Also, I think Montana can be in play. Tester won. Schweitzer won. Clinton picked of Montana in 1992. John Kerry was not a good candidate for Montana.

[hfojvt]

6. Clinton won by 10,300 votes when Perot took 107,225 votes

He lost by 11,000 in 1996 when Perot dropped to 55,000.

But it is looking kinda close in the latest poll at 48 to 43. That's a state where a Clinton VP candidacy seems to hurt.

[yardwork]

8. That's right. I live in North Carolina and I'm originally from Ohio.

I consider the "midwest" to be all the states you mentioned.

I didn't say that Obama can win "all" the south or upper west. I said that he can win most of them. I think that he has a good shot at North Carolina and the rest of the southeast. I don't know about Florida. Obviously, some of the western and Appalachian states are going to go Republican again, as they have for decades.

I'm not sure that Hillary as VP brings anything to the ticket. Obama will definitely win NY, NJ, and the rest of the Democratic strongholds where she is strong. Could Hillary deliver Pennsylvania and Appalachia? I don't know.

[hfojvt]

3. which southern states? and how?

Edwards could not carry North Carolina or South Carolina so how is Obama gonna win them without Bob Graham on the ticket or something. I just checked South Carolina, Alabama, and Georgia. None of them have a black population larger than 29.9% in Georgia. Louisiana was higher at 31.7% but that's still a long way from a majority. So he's not gonna win them that way.

[yardwork]

9. You can't imagine the level of excitement here in the south about Obama!

Every white person I know here in North Carolina is planning to vote for Obama, even lifelong Republicans. Obviously, every black person I know is voting for Obama, too. The only black people he won't get are the ~10% of vote Republican because of abortion and will never be swayed.

[hfojvt]

7. The Senate Races

Republican Incumbents

Alabama - Sessions
Alaska - Stevens
Colorado - Allard (Retiring)
Georgia - Chambliss
Idaho - Craig (R)
Kansas - Roberts
Kentucky - McConnell
Maine - Collins
Minnesota - Coleman
Mississippi - Cochran
Mississippi - Wicker
Nebraska - Hagel (R)
New Hampshire - Sununu
New Mexico - Domenici (R)
North Carolina - Dole
Oklahoma - Inhofe
Oregon - Gordon Smith
South Carolina - Lindsey Graham
Tennessee - Alexander
Texas - Cornyn
Virginia - John Warner (R)
Wyoming - Enzi
Wyoming - Borrasso

Nice to see five retiring, but most of those states are pretty red except for Minnesota, Maine, and Oregon. Still, Democrats often win Red States like the Dakotas, Montana, Nebraska. Also includes swing states - Colorado, Minnesota, New Hampshire, and Oregon

Democratic Incumbent

Arkansas - Pryor
Delaware - Biden
Illinois - Durbin
Iowa - Harkin
Louisiana - Landrieu
Michigan - Levin
Montana - Baucus
New Jersey - Lautenberg
Rhode Island - Jack Reed
South Dakota - Tim Johnson
West Virginia - Jay Rockefeller

A few red states there - Arkansas, Louisiana, Montana, South Dakota, and West Virginia, and swing states of Iowa, Michigan, and New Jersey.