Hillary only needs 5.9% to win the nomination!

[SlipperySlope]

If I've done the math correctly, Hillary only needs 5.9% to win the party nomination.

According to the NYT website, here are the current breakdown of delegates:

Obama: 1913.5
Clinton: 1715

There are 373.5 delegates (elected and super) left unapportioned. For the moment let's assume that half go to each candidate:

Obama: 2100.25
Clinton: 1901.75

Now, Hillary only needs 2026 delegates to win. You can see she is only 124.25 delegates short of this number. That is the number of delegates (pledged and super) who need to switch from Obama to Hillary. 124.25 is only 5.9% of Obama's 2100.25 delegates.

I hope this shuts up everybody who says there is no mathematical way for Hillary to win.


P.S. - After further analysis, I realize that Hillary is actually only five votes away from the nomination. (See http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=132x6045609)

[PM7nj]

1. LOL. How is she going to get that 5.9% to switch?

:)

[FredScuttle]

20. I think she's going to write another book...

make another $100 million on the sales and promotional tour (and loan from Bubba) and then buy off the number of SDs she needs. All in the next week and a half, of course

[FARAFIELD]

24. and THEN you woke up

[Oregone]

2. And so far, delegates have been switching in droves

Good contingency plan to hope for. bleh.

[LSparkle]

3. HA!

Good joke!

[Starbucks Anarchist]

4. Your name fits.

[Orrex]

5. It's also possible that Penn will invent a time machine

He'll go back, mess up the spacetime continuum, and thereby guarantee that Obama loses all of the states that Clinton, as the ordained nominee, was guaranteed to get in the first place.

Penn will thereby restore himself to Clinton's good graces, and the Democratic Party will be restored to the Rovian principles exemplified by the Clinton campaign lo these many weeks.

[skipos]

6. Huh? Why would 5.9% switch, let a lone 1%?

Because Hillary had big wins in WY or KY?
Our nominee is decided by delegates, and Hillary isn't going to get enough of them. If your hope rests on Obama being struck by lightning, well, good luck with that.

[kid a]

7. how many angels dance on the head of a pin?

[Bill McBlueState]

8. neat trick

It's an effective lesson in what happens when you just do math and don't interpret it. You get a number that seems small but really isn't.

[Renew Deal]

9. I get your point

But that's never going to happen barring a dead girl or a live boy.

[mdmc]

27. agreed

the math has no meaning if poor Obama ends up Spitzered.

[scheming daemons]

10. Dude.... There won't be 125 delegates switching.... if anything, more will switch to him.....

Considering that 133 of the last 151 uncommitted superdelegates have committed to Obama, what makes you think that she'll get half of the remaining ones!?!?!


Even after her big WV win she LOST ground in SDs.

[DS1]

11. The Fail is strong with this one

aye

[Occam Bandage]

12. It is highly unlikely that 125 delegates will switch to HRC after having been committed to O.

[RiverStone]

13. How many delegates have switched from Obama to Hillary so far?

Uh, considering since super Tuesday Obama has gotten something like 133 to 18 (if memory serves) - I'm wondering what do you base your logic on?

[MarjorieG]

14. A lot of her wins were Clinton brand, likely to change to Obama, and supers know that.

Hillary has never polled into the 50s, and more Dems resist their kitchen sink, he'll never win, poor loser attitude. And she is losing.

The many faces off Hillary are a turn-off, and I don't want her hanging around casting constant doubt. Just like they didn't help in 2004, waiting for this opportunity. I'm tired of their sense of entitlement and stranglehold of the party.

Sorry, but I'd like more media and Clinton acknowledgement of what Obama has achieved. Winning NC and photo finish in IN, after Wright, etc, show the public wants him-more than Hillary.

[FARAFIELD]

15. ANd if Hillary said Wolverines made good housepets would you believe her?

your math is based on assumption A) that she will get half B) that Supers go half and half C) Neither of THOSE will happen. IE if he NETS 2 Supers Today and she gets zero. the 5.9 number goes up. Also your assumption isnt mathematical anyhow, it's based on someone PHYSICALLY changing their vote anyhow LAME.

[fascisthunter]

16. Nope... It Won't Shut Anyone Up Because You Failed

it's all on you now.

[FredScuttle]

17. Exactamundo!

In fact, I was just saying to my friend the other day that I only need Bill Gates to give me a PALTRY .01% of his net worth and I'd have $5.8 million dollars!

I mean, c'mon...that's just as likely, right? :eyes:

[Beregond2]

18. Yeah...in Bizzaro World!

[mohc]

19. Even if 6% of Obama delegates switching was not preposterous

The assumption you make: "For the moment let's assume that half go to each candidate" is a fairly big leap of faith. SDs have been breaking far greater than 50% for Obama since February 5th, and after he crosses 2025 the rate will only increase. It really would not be that surprising for Obama and Clinton to split the remaining pledged delegates and Obama get 80% of the remaining superdelegates. Clinton's chances of getting enough delegates to switch to her are about as good as Gore's at this point.

[Bleacher Creature]

21. Why shoot for just 5.9 percent switching and not 100 percent????

Both outcomes are just as likely. At least in your second daydream she would have achieved a historic landslide!

[JBoy]

22. When is this "switch" going to happen?

Before or after Obama reaches 2025?

[Exilednight]

23. Your math is wrong. She's 5.9% behind, but she needs closer to 80% of remaining delegates to win.

After tonight she will need more than 90% to win.

[olkaz]

26. That's not his point.

His point that if 6% of Obama's delegates switch, boom, Hillary is the nominee.

Not defending him, just saying.

[Bleacher Creature]

28. You need to free your mind and step into the OP's delusions.

He/she is talking about SWITCHING delegates.

Now if you excuse me, I'm going to go out and win the lottery -- just because I want to.

[kwenu]

34. Correct!!! Obama only needs 30% of remaining delegates. Hillary needs 83%.

The OP's premise is flawed.

[dbmk]

25. Thats some assumption

Half the supers to Hillary? Assumptions are of course assumptions - but still..

Of course there is a mathematical way. But not if you apply just a slight dose of political reality.
Thats the context you have to base the mathematical viability on and weigh it up against.

So in that sense it is correct to say that the math does not add up.

[SoCalDem]

29. Hillie, herself said the NEW number is 2210..How does she get there?

Maybe they flip a coin for the nomination:rofl:
(just don't use HER coin)

[Bread and Circus]

30. Yes, it makes perfect sense...

Only 5.9% need to switch to the the candidate who won less delegates, less popular vote, and less states...

Yes, perfect sense indeed.

:sarcasm: <<<< This should go without saying, but I will add it for the logic impaired (which included Hillary's core leadership team).

[AtomicKitten]

31. I'll accept your analysis as long as you promise to hold your breath til it comes true.

[breakaleg]

33. That was pretty funny.

[mckara]

32. Finding Yourself in a State of Denial?

Take a Deep Breath...

Go for a Long Walk...

Have a Cup of Tea...

And Set Your Calendar for 2016!

:patriot: