My predictions for tomorrow. Skip this thread because you won’t like it.

[DerekJ]

NC:
O:53 - C:47

Indiana:
C:55 - O:45


It's going to be an upset tomorrow for Obama, so brace yourselves. He's been hit for 2 month straight. He's is recovering, but just not fast enough for those 2 primaries.

I know I'm not optimistic enough for most of the Obama supporters, but I tend to think I'm a reliast.

Flame away.

[Avalux]

1. That is not an upset.

Obama was never expected to win Indiana. An upset would be Hillary winning both states by double-digits.

[VeraAgnes]

26. I think we will find an end to this laborious Primary Season tomorrow

with and Obama win. Everyone knows that the strength of the Obama support is key for the General Election. All these trivial personal issues are just tabloid fodder.

My feel for tomorrow............


Indiana will pick Obama. NC is already in his win column!

[Avalux]

28. I hope you're right.

I got my hopes up with PA (my home state) and was disappointed. An Indiana win would be a wonderful surprise.

[VeraAgnes]

33. I don't see the people of Indiana being so rigid like Pa. folks.

I saw Pa. as a state that wants a candidate to prove themselves and to be a senior-like statesman. Indiana, well they "keep it simple" and go for the logical choice. They don't seem to buy into the tabloid fodder much.

That's my guess anyways.:hi: :thumbsup:

[thevoiceofreason]

2. With those percentages, he still comes out ahead in delegates

[LSparkle]

5. Thank you!

It's all about the delegates ...

[FARAFIELD]

14. WOW! you "nailed" OBAMAS own Predictions back in February

He said NC55-45 and IN45-55. Why wouldnt anyone like that. with those numbers he is just that much closer to a win. As a matter of fact not much to DISLIKE in those numbers. Here is a number for you, though. If you your numbers are right. She will have to win 75% of the rest of the votes cast just to be 2 delegates short! Yikes.

[Sherman A1]

3. We will know more late Tuesday or Wednesday

Who knows at this point?

[rwheeler31]

4. No one knows. Just keep guessing.

[boppers]

6. Upset?

Hillary can't get more than a single digit lead = fails to be nominated.

[Buzz Clik]

7. Ten points in IN may be a tad high, but not unrealistic.

Obama will not win NC by any less than 6.

Who's going to flame you over this?

[dana_b]

8. I hate to say it, but I think you're going to be pretty close.

I have no numbers to back it up (I don't trust polls), it's just a feeling after reading various posts here on DU.

[lojasmo]

9. Though I think your IN spread is high...it won't matter.

Clinton can't close the gap with those numbers.

[Upton]

10. Your prediction sounds reasonable

where's the upset?

[AllentownJake]

11. I'm fine with that

She nets 3 delegates and the popular vote is a wash.

[bagimin]

12. Hill loses N.C.....she's more doomed than ever

sounds good to me.

[hogwyld]

13. I think your numbers are right on.

And although it won't mean diddly in the delegate counts, the M$M will create the narrative, with an assist from the Clinton campaign, that the landslide to victory is on, and will call for Obama to drop out.

[wildeyed]

15. I've been thinking that too.

I don't have any idea what the final numbers are going to be, but I agree that he has been hit hard, hit bottom and is on the way back up. If the elections were in about a week, I would be more confident of a stellar result. As it stands, I am working hard for a victory in NC and hoping for the best.

[aaaaaa5a]

16. Why Is That A Bad Prediction??

If Obama wins North Carolina I believe there are a lot of Super Delegates who will look to shut the process down. If Obama wins North Carolina, he has finally won the nomination. I don't even think the margin is that important.

[DerekJ]

17. For the posters above me asking me where the upset is. It's going to be a perception upset,

not an upset that will turn the numbers around.
You know: "He's tanking", “He can’t close the deal” blah blah blah

[Lerkfish]

18. for some reason, here's my gut feeling

NC:

O: 61 C: 39

IND:

C: 51 O: 49

just a feeling.

[The_Casual_Observer]

19. That would be a monster upset for obama. They had him winning

NC by 20 & ahead in Indiana. That would be goawayobamatime.

[thesuperintendent]

20. If Clinton wins Indiana by 1% it's a victory

Since the great Zogby says Obama is up by 2%.

[earthlover]

32. Thanks for the levity. But you forgot the sacasm button....

[meow mix]

21. thats about everyones prediction. and its fine

:)

[MercutioATC]

22. I'm an Obama supporter and I love those numbers.

Personally, I'm predicting IN to go Clinton +5 and NC to go Obama +13, but your numbers are well within the margin that gives Obama an even more decisive lead after tomorrow.

-10 and +6 still work very well for him.

[Frank Booth]

23. My predictions are about the same as yours.

NC: Obama by 4.
Indiana: HRC by 8.

Having the governor's support helped Hillary a lot in Penn and Ohio (and helped Obama in Wisconsin). I assume it help in these two states as well. Obama's been closing in recently in Indiana, but since Bayh's been pulling out all the stops I wouldn't be surprised to see her win by even more than +8 in Indiana.

[jefferson_dem]

24. Al at The Field agrees with you. Let's suppose she wins IN by 10 and he wins NC by 6-7.

She would end up with a a net of three (that's right 3) delegates.

That would mean...

Indiana & North Carolina Predictions: Clinton +3 Delegates
By Al Giordano

<SNIP>

If this projection – which is more favorable for Clinton tomorrow than other colleagues have generally forecasted – comes true, it will bring Obama’s pledged delegate count to 1,582 and Clinton’s to 1,434.

Obama will then need only 35 (or 16 percent) of the 217 pledged delegates left to be determined to enter the Democratic National Convention as the pledged delegate leader.

As you can see from the numbers below, Obama will certainly hit that threshold on May 20, two weeks from tomorrow. The 217 pledged delegates left to be chosen are from the following states:

- 28 from West Virginia on May 13
- 52 from Oregon and 51 from Kentucky on May 20
- 55 from Puerto Rico on June 1
- 16 from Montana and 15 from South Dakota on June 3.

No matter how the press spins tomorrow (and it’s a given that the results will be spun more favorably for Clinton, because the media has in its DNA and profit motive a desire to keep up the public illusion that this is still a contest), a virtual draw (in this prediction, +3 delegates for Clinton, in which each candidate wins one state) should signal to enough of the remaining 270 or so undeclared superdelegates that it is time to get off the fence and rally behind Obama as the nominee (although many will wait until after the final primaries on June 3 before saying so aloud).

If the delegate battle is a virtual tie, the margins of victory really won’t matter on Tuesday. People will need to click reset, and move on from the spin and concerns that revolved around previous primaries and caucuses. (Terms like “double digit lead” are effectively irrelevant starting now.)

Anybody that claims that whether Clinton or Obama won or lost either state by X points or more means anything will reveal himself or herself as a media-transfixed lemming, not to be taken seriously in his or her proclamations about the contest, demonstrating that he or she hasn’t analyzed the situation for themselves.

<SNIP>

http://ruralvotes.com/thefield/?p=1157#comments

[DerekJ]

25. I understand that, however the MSM will carry this as a big upset for Obama, and we won't hear the

end of it for the next 2 weeks. She won't pull a number changing upset she will pull a perception changing upset.

[jefferson_dem]

27. The "keep 'em ignorant" collusion between Hillary and the MSM

has been one of the most nauseating political exercises i've ever witnessed. Hands down. They depend on dishonestly perpetuating voter stupidity in order to keep a phony horse race alive.

My advise: dismiss the bozos for what they are.

[kmsarvis]

29. The margin of victory for Obama in NC .........

will be greater than the margin of victory for Clinton in Indiana.

[FARAFIELD]

31. Also the POPULAR vote wont be a wash

Because more people will vote in NC.

[jenmito]

30. I predicted even worse-Obama by 4 in NC and Hillary by 10 in IN. But as long as he wins in NC,

that's good enough for the SDs to flock to him. The only way they WON'T flock to him is if HILLARY wins BOTH states!

[KAZ]

34. I think you've nailed it. Maybe a point or 2 better in IN.

[Bucky]

35. You obviously stole your predictions from me

At 6:40PM Central Time I wrote (and I quote) "It'll be Obama by 5 in Carolina, Clinton by 8 in Hoosierland. Obama will net gain by about 3 delegates." You are within my margin of error. Or rather I am within yours, since I don't make errors.

[DerekJ]

36. ...

[Condem]

37. The fact that Obama is campaigning HARD in Indiana

Says it all.

[TragedyandHope]

38. Upset? This is not far from what most polls are showing

within the margin of error.

I suggest you take these numbers and look at how these results work out in terms of delegate numbers. Brace yourself.

[DerekJ]

39. I'm the happiest man to be a total idiot.. I was sooo wrong :)

[FrenchieCat]

40. You underestimated our man......

That's what the Clintons did too.

[DerekJ]

41. I didn't underestimate him, I was scared. If you know what I mean.

:)