Holy Shit. Something is really up in TX

[cali]

It's not just the polls showing Hillary and Obama within a few points of McCan't; it's this, and yeah, I think it's a big deal. Such a big deal that it's worth looking at here in GD-P where gloom and infighting prevail. This is good news. Cornyn is under 50 and he's barely beating Rick Noriega. It's too early to tell if Noriega has a real chance to beat the awful Cornyn, but this is encouraging.


Cornyn (Sen-TX) only up 4 points against netroots hero Noriega!
by Ajax the Greater
Mon May 05, 2008 at 07:55:38 AM PDT
This is absolutely fantastic news my friends!

It's time to add United States Senator John Cornyn to the list of potentially vulnerable Republican incumbents in Election 2008. The latest Rasmussen Reports telephone survey in the state finds Cornyn leading Democratic state legislator Rick Noriega by just four percentage points, 47% to 43%.
This ROCKS!

Ajax the Greater's diary :: ::
This is how we make the move from a pick-up of 5 or 6 seats in the senate to getting close to a filibuster proof majority.

Noriega is one of the good ones. One of the really good ones.
http://www.dailykos.com/story/2008/5/5/104956/1863/190/509345

[Nicholas D Wolfwood]

1. For the race to be that close this early is a very, very good sign.

Typically, an incumbent would be considered vulnerable if they're only up 10% at this point, especially if they're under 50% overall. For Noriega to be within 4 points means this will be a battle for Cornyn. Very, very good news indeed.

[Blue_Roses]

2. We are SICK of Cornyn here

and didn't want him to begin with.

[virtualobserver]

3. What I would give to be represented by a sane person

[Erin Elizabeth]

29. No shit. BOTH of our senators are worthless.

[jsamuel]

4. I was thinking that if John Edwards was the head of our ticket, we would win TX.

maybe we can even win it with Clinton

[monmouth]

8. You really need to move on!....n/t

[jsamuel]

36. Has it become a sin to invoke his name now?

[anigbrowl]

51. Not a sin, but it shows you're really living in the past

It's like saying 'if Gore or Kerry was President, I'm sure we'd have this or that seat by now'. Edwards dropped out nearly 4 months ago without winning big anywhere, so while I admire your loyalty, statements like the one above are just wishful thinking. Nobody ever won an election through wishful thinking - you win them by dealing with things as they are.

[jsamuel]

53. Thanks for judging me.

All I said was that when Edwards was still in the race, I thought we could win TX with him. I don't think saying that on a forum talking about winning TX is living in the past. Some people seem way too sensitive about talking about John Edwards. Makes me wonder.

[cali]

9. Yes, I"m sure you were. Edwardians seem convinced that

the man who won 1 primary in two tries, dropped out on his second for lack of support, and lost his won state while on the dem ticket at the vp candidate, could win all 50 states. All based on a handful of polls taken a full year out from the general election- and they couldn't be more meaningless. It's bizarre but there you go.

[jsamuel]

38. Well, lets just agree to disagree.

[TBF]

19. You will not win Texas with Clinton.

Do you live here? Talk to your neighbors. Everyone is voting for McCain. There are other southern states that would go for Obama or Clinton, but this isn't one of them. I still worked hard as an Obama precinct captain, but this state is really not in play. There are not enough hispanics to push up Clinton, and many moderates hate her. You won't get the black vote because if she steals the nomination they won't vote. Texas will go to McCain regardless.

There are other states for us to concentrate on, and I will continue to send donations to Obama and do what I can, but we do need to be realistic.

[okasha]

23. Clinton is the only chance we have of winning Texas.

If Obama runs, the Hispanic vote goes to McCain on his war hero status and immigration stance. And I don't know who you're talking to, but I have been talking to life-long Democrats who have never even contemplated voting for a Republican who will mark their ballots for McCain if Obama is the Dem candidate.

[kwenu]

28. If the Hispanic vote goes to McCain over Obama it won't have anything to do with war hero status or

immigration. It will be because of race. Just be honest about it. Lifelong Democrats don't go Republican over the issues you state and Obama has been supportive of an immigration solution. McCain has clearly taken a step back from it to maintain his conservative base. So let's be honest please.

[okasha]

37. Yes, let's do be honest.

Race has nothing to do with it. The life-long Dems I'm talking about are almost stereotypical liberals--upper income, Ph.D.s and other terminal degrees, environmentalists--and they just don't like your guy's policies or his lack of national experience. They don't like McCain much, either, but they prefer voting for him to not bubbling in a presidential preference at all.

[Justitia]

39. Sorry, as a "lifelong TX Dem", I also disagree. "Lifelong TX Dems" won't vote McCain.

You can ponder their favorite Dem candidate 'til the cows come home, but they won't vote for McLame out of spite, and that's a fact.

You'd have a stronger argument if you tried postulating that they won't "turn the wheel" for that particular race (president), but they certainly won't vote FOR McCain, and they definitely WILL vote for all the Dems down ballot, but I'd most likely even disagree w/you on that.

TX Dems, having lived under much active oppression, aren't going for the party of the oppressor.
I understand your motive (tearing down Obama), but it's not flying here.

[okasha]

42. Sorry. I'm talking about people I personally know.

They are life-long Dems, and they do intend to vote for McCain. I'm trying to talk them out of it, actually--to leave the bubble blank or vote Green.

[Justitia]

44. Well then, they AREN'T "lifelong TX Dems". You are what you vote.

The Green Party does not have ballot access in TX.

If they are "lifelong" party voters of anything, they know that, now don't they?

[kwenu]

49. No. You're not being honest. There's more than a few Texans around here. We know better.

[TBF]

40. I guess I'm your stereotypical liberal (based on your description)

and I won't vote McCain.

[kwenu]

48. I don't believe you. You trapped yourself by your orginal statement.

War hero and immigration. Those are YOUR words. As the phrase goes, "Don't start peeing on my leg now and tell me that it's raining."

:shrug:

[cali]

50. lol. yeah. sure.

that's directly contrary to everything we know from this primary. It's people like your imaginary friends who have been turning out big for Obama.

[TBF]

30. Texas will go to McCain with either candidate --

I live in Brazoria County south of Houston. While we do have large hispanic and black voting groups in Texas, we're still majority white and fairly to very conservative.

With Hillary I think it's a wash - hispanics like her, but moderates do not. I agree Obama does not have much of a chance here. I'm just being honest - like I said I helped out on the campaign when they were here.

Maybe I'm just jaded after seeing all the Ron Paul signs (he's from Lake Jackson so he has alot of support in Brazoria), but I don't see the dems being able to get Texas either way.

[kwenu]

34. I agree with you. There is significant weakening of the repub. grip on Texas but

that will likely be shown on down ticket races in terms of wins. I expect to see closer races for up-ticket races but probably not wins.

[DangerousRhythm]

5. Wow, awesome news.

I voted for Noriega in the primary and will be shocked if he can beat Cornyn. Crossing my fingers now... :)

Next one we have to get rid of is Shelley Skeletor-Gibbs!

[rodeodance]

6. Good news indeed. thanks for the post.

[Happyhippychick]

7. Can't wait for the pukes to start making fun of Noriega's name.

Oooh, he has the same name as pineapple face! Don't vote for him! He's icky!

[Justitia]

15. Oh, don't worry about that, here in TX, it's a very common name.

His well-respected wife, Melissa Noriega sits on Houston City Council too.

[Happyhippychick]

43. Ah - good point, hadn't thought of that.

[yellowcanine]

16. I had the same thought. I can see the swift boating already based on the Noriega name.

Emails alleging connections to the former Panamanian dictator, etc.

[PBS Poll-435]

10. A large voting block has been awakened. We saw that 3/5.

Texas is going to be competitive this year.

[cali]

12. I think you might be right. At least we have the satisfaction

of knowing what bad news this is for Cornyn.

[PBS Poll-435]

14. I can't wait to see him gone.

[kid a]

11. Great news!

[Justitia]

13. Noriega is a great candidate, good news! I've been receiving e-mails from Cornyn, so I knew it was

bad for him - LOL!

Rick also won the first 2008 title of "Progressive Patriot" from Russ Feingold so he's been getting good nat'l attention.

Now, we just need to make sure that Rick Noriega gets the financial backing he's going to need, he's got the rest of it down:

http://www.ricknoriega.com/

Thanks for the reminder to donate to him again today.

Go Rick!

[TragedyandHope]

17. Kick for encouraging news!

:kick:

[JimGinPA]

18. I'd Love It If That Asshole Cornyn Was Run Out Of The Senate!

K&R

[thevoiceofreason]

20. Cornyn is a newt.

Rick really needs money love as soon as possible folks. If he can get the word out, he could knock Cornyn on his butt.

Another interesting tidbit. In 2002, we had Tony Sanchez and Ron Kirk run for governor and senator, respectively. Neither one ever gained a lot of traction, and the republicans beat both fairly soundly. My recollection of that year was that despite having a popular African American Mayor and well-funded Hispanic bigwig run for the two highest offices, the Hispanic and AFrican American turnouts were nothing to be excited about. Can you imagine Barack Obama and Rick Noriega at the top of the ticket? The synergy could be mind-boggling.

[Justitia]

22. Oh, I remember '02 very well. You are right, Obama/Noriega is a whole different game here in TX

All the best of the TX primary. And frankly, elements of both really appeal for crossover.

GOBAMA, Go Rick!

http://www.ricknoriega.com/

[okasha]

21. I don't know what makes me happier--

that a good guy like Noriega has a real chance of being elected this fall or that Cornyn is likely to be kicked out on his corporate-fattened patoot.

And if we can get Noriega in, Kay Bailey's days are numbered.

[DangerousRhythm]

55. Ohh yes.

THAT's what I want to hear... we definitely need to kick Kay Bailey Hutchison out of her seat. :D

[kwenu]

24. The mood here in Texas has been changed for a while now.

[JCMach1]

25. If we win TX, it's a HUGE landslide anyway...

Cornyn is such a douchebag, I am not surprised he might find his way into trouble.

[Stop Cornyn]

26. K & R #5

[cali]

32. thanks. how appropriate that the 5th rec comes from you.

if he loses in November maybe you can change your screen name to "stopped cornyn" or "crushed cornyn"

[Erin Elizabeth]

27. I cannot fucking stand John Cornyn.

He is a useless piece of shit bag of pus who consistently votes for things that go against the average everyday American. But not a shocker, he's a republican after all.

I'd do a fucking jig if he got voted out.

[rucky]

31. I think he may be the biggest asshat in all of Congress.

this is huge!

[BigDDem]

Cornyn is one of the Senate's worst, no question

NEWS FLASH: Neither Hillary or Obama is going to win Texas.

[cali]

35. Never said they were.

But it looks like it's at least within the realm of the possible that Noriega could beat Cornyn, and that either Hillary or Barack could make it fairly close in TX. At the very least, it's another front where repukes and McCain will have to battle with limited resources.

[TBF]

41. It won't be close in TX, cali, but I'm thrilled if we can oust Cornyn. Baby steps.

[NorthCarolina]

33. I'm hoping we can dump Liddy Dole here in NC this election as well n/t

[flpoljunkie]

45. Now that is great news! Cornyn polling under 50! How sweet it would be to beat him!

[shaniqua6392]

46. That is some really good news for a change.

Thanks for posting.

[Avalux]

47. Noreiga is going to BEAT Cornyn.

We are doing whatever we can here to make it happen; the enthusiasm is amazing. Cornyn is gonna be sent home!!!! :bounce:

[knixphan]

52. going to ActBlue to donate to him now!

[McCamy Taylor]

54. The massive Dem turnout for the extended primary is going to help this fall

I suspect. Usually here in Texas the primary does not count for the Democrats so registration and participation is low. There was some kind of record set. Lines were stretching out to the street even on weekdays for the early voting at Democratic polling places.

This has been the silver lining of our 50 state primary. It has Democrats so excited about finally having their vote counted that they really feel invested in the election process now.

Great news about Cornyn! He is one of the worst.

You rock, Cali.

:yourock: