How Bush let bin Laden escape

[topdog08]

http://www.topdog04.com/000598.html

In late November 2001, the United States had a unique opportunity to get rid of Osama bin Laden. The tide had turned in the war in Afghanistan, and the remnants of the Taliban were largely cornered in Tora Bora. Osama bin Laden was headed there, too. Unfortunately, through a combination of mistakes and misunderstandings on the part of the Bush administration, CENTCOM was distracted, and bin Laden got away. Clearly, Bush did not intend to distract CENTCOM (Central Command for the Middle East, South-Central Asia, and the Horn of Africa). It is even possible Rumsfeld did not understand the effect, on CENTCOM's ability to execute the war in Afghanistan, when he made an urgent request for an updated Iraq war plan. It is likely General Tommy Franks - not used to failure - did his best to fulfill both missions with the same staff. He could not ignore an order from his superior, the secretary of defense. Some of the details are still unclear, classified, or unknown. Yet, what is clear is that CENTCOM was preoccupied with Iraq, at exactly the moment when they had a real chance to kill or capture bin Laden.

In the first 50 pages of his new book, Plan of Attack, Bob Woodward describes in detail three key events, all of which happened in the same timeframe. On an unspecified date in late November, the US received intelligence that Pakistani scientists were selling nuclear secrets, and British intelligence had been able to arrange a buy. On November 21st, President Bush asked Donald Rumsfeld to get General Franks working on a plan to invade Iraq. Within hours, Rumsfeld ordered General Franks to prepare a "commander's estimate" for Iraq and formally present it to him six days later, on November 27th. What is not in the book, is that late November is the same time that bin Laden was able to escape from Tora Bora.

When the British Secret Intelligence Service, or MI6, contacted Washington with the information that Pakistani scientists were selling the designs for nuclear weapons, a second report was also received, which seemed to show bin Laden already had nuclear materials and plans for a weapon. As Woodward describes:
<blockquote>
It was an electric moment when all this came together for the President.

"George," Bush told Tenet, "I want you to go over there and get what you need." Get on your plane and fly to Pakistan immediately. Pull out all the stops.

Within hours Tenet was halfway around the world. A large, hulking man with a charged, raspy, infectious voice, he tends to take over whatever space he is occupying. He went to see the head of the Pakistani intelligence service with the intent of raising holy hell. After the 16-hour flight, Tenet was surging. Naturally disinclined to underestimated, he cajoled and threatened.

"I can't tell my president," Tenet told the Pakistani chief, "that there isn't a nuclear weapon in the United States! If there is, and it goes off, it will be your fault!" (p. 46)
</blockquote>

What is not clear from the book is whether this intelligence from MI6 was received before or after Bush's secretive conversation with Rumsfeld about planning for war in Iraq. However, the following article from <i>Dawn</i>, <a href="http://www.dawn.com">a major English-language newspaper in Pakistan</a>, provides one heck of a clue:
<blockquote>
Interrogation of Nuclear scientist at US embassy condemned

Dawn, Karachi, Nov. 25, 2001.
By Our Staff Reporter

LAHORE, NOV. 24: The Pak-Afghan Defence Council’s Punjab chapter on Saturday condemned the arrest of Pakistan’s nuclear scientist Sultan Bashiruddin Mahmood and his colleagues, and their interrogation at, what it said, the American embassy.

Adopting a resolution at a meeting chaired by its president Hafiz Muhammad Idrees of the Jammat-i-Islami, the council termed the scientist as a national hero who played a key role in making Pakistan a nuclear power while ignoring all international temptations. The way the rulers had recognized his services was condemnable, it said....

Meanwhile Jammat-i-Islamic acting amir Syed Munawwar Hasan said the Pakistani people’s support to Afghanistan would continue. He alleged that America and Pakistan government were responsible for the bloodshed in Afghanistan and stressed the need for protecting the Kashmir cause and Pakistan’s nuclear assets under the circumstances.

Speaking at the party’s central executive council meeting he said American attack of Afghanistan was a part of the international conspiracy being hatched for the past quite some time against Islam and ummat.

Mr. Hasan said the ties between Paksitan and Afghanistan would not be over. He said after destroying Afghanistan the West was now after Kashmir and Pakistan’s nuclear installations.

He said the Pak-Afghan Defence Council would continue its movement against America during Ramazan and it would announce its programme for the post-Eidul Fitr days shortly.
</blockquote>

Now, if this meeting was held on the 24th, it stands to reason the interrogation took place at least the day before, if not earlier. It also seems reasonable to assume there would be at least some delay between an order going out from the US to locate and interrogate these scientists, and their being located and hauled in. Factor in the time difference between Pakistan and the US, and it is hard to see how the intelligence from MI6 could have been received much later than November 21st, the day Bush asked Rumsfeld to look into war on Iraq:
<blockquote>
President George W. Bush clamped his arm on his secretary of defense, Donald H. Rumsfeld, as a National Security Council meeting in the White House Situation Room was just finishing on Wednesday, November 21, 2001. It was the day before Thanksgiving, just 72 days after the 9/11 terrorist attacks and the beginning of the eleventh month of Bush's presidency.

"I need to see you," the president said to Rumsfeld. The affectionate gesture sent a message that important presidential business needed to be discussed in the utmost privacy. Bush knew it was dramatic for him to call the secretary of defense aside. The two men went into one of the small cubbyhole offices adjacent to the Situation Room, closed the door and sat down.

"I want you..." the president began, and as is often the case he restarted his sentence. "What kind of a war plan do you have for Iraq? How do you feel about the war plan for Iraq?" (p. 1)

..."Let's get started on this," Bush recalled saying. "And get Tommy Franks looking at what it would take to protect America by removing Saddam Hussein if we have to." He also asked, Could this be done on a basis that would not be terribly noticeable? (p. 2)
</blockquote>

Putting two and two together, Newsweek states the obvious conclusion:
<blockquote>
'I Haven't Suffered Doubt'

In the months after 9/11, Woodward writes, Bush was obsessed with the threat of another attack. The president's fears peaked in late November 2001, when British intelligence ran a sting operation on a Pakistani atomic expert who was ready and willing to sell plans for a nuclear weapon or a "dirty bomb" to Islamic extremists. Although Woodward's just-the-facts narrative doesn't put it this way, the implication is that Bush couldn't very well attack Pakistan, America's new ally in the war on terror. But Bush could go after Saddam, who (Bush believed) had weapons of mass destruction and a willingness to share them or use them. Bush did not want to play "small ball," he told his speechwriter Michael Gerson. He wanted to strike pre-emptively. Hence Bush's "Axis of Evil" State of the Union Message in January 2002. (The inclusion of North Korea and Iran was mostly cover for Bush's secret war planning, writes Woodward.)
</blockquote>

Whether or not you believe that Bush intended to blame Iraq for a nuclear attack by Al Qaeda with Pakistani nukes, one thing is clear. Bush's request to Rumsfeld and Rumsfeld's orders to the Pentagon drew attention away from Afghanistan at exactly the moment when we had a chance to corner bin Laden - before he slipped over the border to Pakistan. Again, from Woodward's book:
<blockquote>
When he was back at the Pentagon, two miles from the White House across the Potomac River in Virginia, Rumsfeld immediately had the Joint Staff begin drafting a Top Secret message to General Franks requesting a "commander's estimate," a new take on the status of the Iraq war plan and what Franks thought could be done to improve it. The general would have about a week to make a formal presentation to Rumsfeld.... (p. 5)

"Hey," Newbold said in his best take-notice voice, "I've got a real tough problem for you. The secretary's going to ask you to start looking at your Iraq planning in great detail - and give him a new commander's estimate."

"You got to be shitting me," Renuart said. "We're only kind of busy on some other things right now. Are you sure?"

"Well, yeah. It's coming. So stand by."

..."Hey, boss," Renuart said, reporting that a formal request of a commander's estimate was coming. "So we'd better get on it."

Franks was incredulous. They were in the midst of one war, Afghanistan, and now they wanted detailed planning for another, Iraq? "Goddamn," Franks said, "what the fuck are they talking about?" (p. 8)
</blockquote>

An order was an order, so Franks started secretly working on plans for Iraq:
<blockquote>
That morning, six days after the president's request on the Iraq war plan, Rumsfeld flew to see General Franks at CENTCOM headquarters in Tampa. After greeting everyone, he kicked Franks's staff as well as his own aides out of the room, even telling his military assistant, Vice Admiral Giambastiani, "Ed, I need you to step outside."

"Pull the Iraq planning out and let's see where we are," Rumsfeld told Franks when they were alone.... (p. 36)

"Let's put together a group that can just think outside the box completely," Rumsfeld ordered. "Certainly we have traditional military planning, but let's take away the constraints a little bit and think about what might be a way to solve this problem."

After the meeting, Rumsfeld and Franks appeared before the news media to brief on the ongoing Afghanistan war called Operation Enduring Freedom. Franks, a head taller than Rumsfeld, loomed over him physically. But there was no question who was boss. The war in Afghanistan was essentially won, at least the first phase. Widespread predictions of a Vietnam-style quagmire had been demolished, at least for the time being, and Rumsfeld was in a bouyant mood. (p. 37)

Four days later, December 1, a Saturday, Rumsfeld sent through the chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff a Top Secret planning order to Franks asking him to come up with the commander's estimate to build the base of a new Iraq war plan. In two pages the order said Rumsfeld wanted to know how Franks would conduct military operations to remove Saddam from power, eliminate the threat of any possible weapons of mass destruction, and choke off his suspected support of terrorism. This was the formal order for thinking outside the box.

The Pentagon was supposed to give Franks 30 days to come up with his estimate - an overview and a concept for something new, a first rough cut. "He had a month and we took 27 days away," recalled Marine General Pete Pace, the vice chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff and a Rumsfeld favorite. Franks was to report in person three days later. (p. 38)
</blockquote>

Now, what is so significant about the last week of November?
<blockquote>
How Osama bin Laden got away

The Afghan warlords estimated that Tora Bora held between 1,500 and 1,600 of the best Arab and Chechen fighters in bin Laden's terror network....

And on Nov 29, Vice President Dick Cheney told ABC's "Primetime Live" that, according to the reports that were coming in, bin Laden was in Tora Bora."I think he was equipped to go to ground there," Mr. Cheney said. "He's got what he believes to be a fairly secure facility. He's got caves underground; it's an area he's familiar with."

...somewhere between Nov. 28 to Nov. 30 - according to detailed interviews with Arabs and Afghans in eastern Afghanistan afterward - the world's most-wanted man escaped the world's most-powerful military machine, walking - with four of his loyalists - in the direction of Pakistan.

On Dec. 11, in the village of Upper Pachir - located a few miles northeast of the main complex of caves where Al Qaeda fighters were holed up - a Saudi financier and Al Qaeda operative, Abu Jaffar, was interviewed by the Monitor. Fleeing the Tora Bora redoubt, Mr. Jaffar said that bin Laden had left the cave complexes roughly 10 days earlier, heading for the Parachinar area of Pakistan.
</blockquote>

That's right. Osama bin Laden walked over the border to Pakistan despite being cornered at Tora Bora, while CENTCOM and General Tommy Franks were pre-occupied rushing together a new war plan for Iraq. Why hasn't this story been more widely reported? That's a good question. It's all right there in Woodward's book. And Plan of Attack is still on the Bush campaign's suggested reading list!