AP Poll now has Bush Leading?

[Thrill]

YAWN

http://story.news.yahoo.com/news?tmpl=story&u=/ap/20040708/ap_on_el_pr/presidential_ap_poll

[IronLionZion]

1. AP sucks the big one

[Melodybe]

3. BULL SHIT!!!! Bushco has about 35% and that number is getting smaller

by the day, let the media dig their graves right along with Bushco, they'll burn in hell right along side of eachother.

[IronLionZion]

5. Bush is definitely doing worse

than the corporate media will have us believe. They're going for the herd mentality ie. everyone else is supporting Bush so you should too. And it also makes it easier when they try to steal it.

[olddem43]

2. leading what, where?

He is no leader. That man could not lead a dog on a leash.

[bullimiami]

4. He cant even walk and carry a dog.

Remember. He dropped Barney on his head and then blamed it on Ms Pickles

[Renew Deal]

6. This is beyond bizarre.

Kerry is stronger in almost every category and he loses track? Yeah, OK.

[John_H]

7. AP packs 3 Kinds of whoring in this piece:

1) Releasing a poll in part conducted before an event which makes the poll irrelevent, then burying that fact in the middle of the story.

2) When kerry has a slight lead the race is a "dead heat" when chimp in .5 percent outside the margin he has a "slight lead."

3) Quoting 4 Republicans and two Democrats.

[spooky3]

8. good points. Also, take comfort in knowing Ipsos-Reid is usually

on the high side for Bush (lately anyway). I don't know how AP's involvement may have affected this, but I have a hunch--don't you?

[Nicholas_J]

9. Well so far the most recent National Polls have gone:

NATIONAL POLLS :

Rasmussen: 7/7: Bush 47, Kerry 45

ARG: Kerry 47, Bush 44, Nader 3

Gallup: Bush 45, Kerry 44, Nader 7 |

::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::

Snapshot polls Kerry/Edwards vs Bush/Cheney:

NBC News Poll of 504 RV: Kerry/Edwards 49 - Bush/Cheney 41

CBS News/NY TIMES Poll of 462 RV: Kerry/Edwards 49 - Bush/Cheney 44

:::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::


The two most recent polls that have taken into account the selection of Edwards as running mate:


AP/Ipsos (7/5-7/7) RV: Bush/Cheney 49% - Kerry/Edwards 45%

Zogby - "No Big Bounce for Kerry": Kerry/Edwards 48% - Bush/Cheney 46%


:::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::


http://www.realclearpolitics.com/

[radfringe]

16. few other numbers

http://www.pollingreport.com/

http://www.pollingreport.com/wh04gen.htm
General Election Trial Heats: (some poll results are BEFORE official announcement of Edwards being on the ticket)

Zogby: bush* 44% Kerry 46%
Associated Press-Ipsos poll: bush* 49% Kerry 45%
CBS: bush*44% Kerry 49%
NBC: bush*41% Kerry 49%
American Research Group Poll: bush* 45% Kerry 49%

[Eric J in MN]

10. Some pollsters assume there are an equal number of Republicans

Some pollsters assume there are an equal number of Republicans and Democrats.

If they call 800 people, and 60% say "I'm a Democrat and I'm voting for Kerry, and 40% say, "I'm a Republicans and I'm voting for Bush," then they will ADJUST the result by party-affiliation and say the race is 50-50.


I don't know if AP-Ipsos did this, but they don't say what their method was, and I don't trust polls where the method is a secret.

I think a poll with a secret method is bogus.

[tom22]

11. I read all

this stuff. I think we are in good shape. The reliable polls seem to have very large negatives for Bush on every important issue. Especially that right direction/wrong direction question. 2/3 of the country thinks the country is headed in the wrong direction according to Gallup (which I think is the really reliable poll) His approval ratings are in the low 40s. I'm guessing it's over. On key questions the country has rejected Bush. It's just a matter of rolling into Nov. Kerry is a great candidate. the best we have. Edwards is a great choice. There is no alternative.

[What2do]

12. Volunteer for America

I agree. Let's get involved if you're not. Volunteer for America.

[newyawker99]

17. Hi What2do!!

Welcome to DU!! :toast:

[Frodo]

18. But that's essentially the right way to do it.

Several polls with MUCH smaller margins of error (thousands of people polled) have shown a pretty even split between Republicans and Democrats.

But yes, they should go in to more detail on methodology. Frankly, I'd like to see some raw figures (% of calls answered, etc) - but I know it will never happen.

[59millionmorons]

13. You people are going to drive yourselves crazy

You people are going to drive yourselves crazy. If your going to react to every poll that comes out. Don't take any poll as gospel. Each pollster has there own formula for calculating there results. This poll is likely an out lier and this poll also had Bush winning in 2000 by 5%. They were WRONG. Look how wrong most of them were in 2000. It's really remarkable any of these pollsters get hired with these results.

NewsMax.com
Tuesday, Nov. 7, 2000
CNN/USA Today/Gallup Presidential Preference (Nov. 5-6)
Margin of error +/- 2%
Bush 47%
Gore 45%
Buchanan 1%
Nader 4%


Reuters/MSNBC/Zogby Daily Tracking (Final Results)
Margin of error +/- 3%

Bush 46%
Gore 48%
Buchanan 0.5%
Nader 5%
Browne 0.6%
Phillips 0%
McReynolds 0%
Hagelin 0%


ABC News Tracking (Nov. 3-5)
Margin of error +/- 2.5%

Bush 48%
Gore 45%
Buchanan 1%
Nader 3%


Battleground 2000 Daily (Final Results)
Margin of error +/- 3.1%

Bush 50%
Gore 45%
Buchanan --
Nader 3.5%


Portrait of America Tracking (Nov. 4-6)
Margin of error +/- 1.6%

Bush 49%
Gore 40%
Buchanan 1%
Nader 4%
Browne 1%
Phillips <1%
Hagelin<1%


Newsweek – likely voters (Oct. 31-Nov. 2)
Margin of error +/- 4%

Bush 45%
Gore 43%

[Still_Loves_John]

14. It's just an abberation

the other polls show Kerry leading.

It doesn't necessarily show bias, either. Any time that you use a representative sample, you run the chance of messing up the data. That's why it's important to look at all the polls. The NBC poll has Kerry up by 8 points, and the truth is probably somewhere inbetween that and the AP one.

[demwing]

15. Good Point

Statistics are professional guesses, but they are still just guesses.

This poll could be done with great attention to methods, honesty, and with a complete lack of applied bias, and STILL be an abberation.

"Random sample" means exactly that. And if it is random, you run the risk that on the days of the poll they randomly eneded up interviewing a greater nember of Republicans than are actually represented across the country.

[tom_paine]

19. AP "polling" is Soviet Polling

Believe it like you believe a Stalin-Pravda 1950 poll.

What's awful is the the Busheviks replaced the VNS with the AP Exit Poll.

So it's now guaranteed that all "Exit Polling" will exactly match all Amerikan "elections".

Always, unlike the odd "upsets" (by Busheviks, naturally) in 2000 and 2002.

ALWAYS.

God I want Imperial Amerika to be Free America again.