*********OFFICIAL OBAMA SUPPORTER'S PA PRIMARY THREAD #2*******

[MadBadger]

Come in and lets talk about the results and what to look at moving forward Give me some recs for this.

[Fearless]

1. GOBAMA!

[Laura PourMeADrink]

2. Under 10, Under 10, Under 10.!.......................

[gateley]

3. Rec -- and --

We have to wait until ALL the votes are counted to get the final spread, right?

[TheDonkey]

4. The margins keep closing. 53% 47% 3%reporting

[MadBadger]

5. Just because it was called 45 minutes in, doesnt mean it will be double digits.

[oviedodem]

6. that Clinton: 53%; Obama 47% is the key. If the numbers stay around there

this is a ho-hum night for Hillary.

[yardwork]

7. I'm in. Anything under a 15% loss is a victory for Obama in PA.

[MadBadger]

10. That wont do it. We need single digits.

[yardwork]

15. I think we'll get single digits, but honestly, anything under 15% is awesome for him.

Obama came from way behind in PA.

[JBoy]

18. I agree, 10% is a magic barrier

[roguevalley]

27. pundits are saying money and SD's will be hard to come by if not

ten or more %

[sonias]

8. single digits

K&R


Sonia

[Rosa Luxemburg]

yes yes yes!

[Kittycat]

9. My stomach is just in knots tonight

We really need to keep this under 10pts so that we can start putting this behind us.

[Poll_Blind]

11. MSNBC: Clinton arm-twisting 6 super delegates who said they'd watch PA.

Dunno if anyone else is watching this, FWIW.

PB

[JBoy]

26. Twisting arms in order to apply the tourniquet. They're gonna bleed SDs starting now.

[Hepburn]

86. Yep...watching this while I munch on my Nutrisystem dinner...

....I just hope the SDs are not as stupid as the Clinton Campaign hopes they are.

[gateley]

12. It says Clinton 56%, Obama 44%

(and it's changing momentarily) --

Is THAT what determines the points? i.e. - would this indicate a 12 POINT spread?

Thanks!

[Willo]

yes gateley n/t

[gateley]

73. Thank you. I was embarrassed to ask, but I knew

a kind soul such as yourself would gently let me know. :pals:

[Willo]

186. self -delete

[Willo]

187. LOL, I know what you mean

I am usually not embarrassed to ask any question, but it gets hard sometimes when you don't receive an answer.
:):hi:
:pals:

[Imalittleteapot]

13. 54 out of 9,211 districts reporting (.59%)

Clinton 13,530
Obama 6,513

http://www.electionreturns.state.pa.us/

[high density]

14. Fineman on MSNBC telling us that Team Clinton is already on the phones to super delegates

as if this win changes the race in some major way...

[johnnydrama]

16. Philadelphia is so huge

in overall voters, and is going to be so big for Obama, that it semes like when Hillary votes come from other parts of the state that would make her margin expand, a Philly vote count will come in and negate it.

[mopinko]

17. sigh. oh well, i'm sure i will meet some nice people

in indiana.

[tishaLA]

19. Gah! Now Gregory and Buchanan

Shut them the fuck up

[OnceUponTimeOnTheNet]

20. Gregory has reached

ejaculation.

[high density]

23. Keith shut them the fuck up!

"Now moving from the Clinton telethon"

LOL

[Ichingcarpenter]

21. 6% margin right now

It an't gonna do it for Hillary.

[Ichingcarpenter]

24. 4% margin right now

I hope that sticks but it will move back and forth.

[Ichingcarpenter]

37. Back to 6%

now to 8% ...... the magic number is 10

[Ichingcarpenter]

41. 8% down to 6%

53-47

[Ichingcarpenter]

47. Now back to 10%

[Ichingcarpenter]

58. 8% now n/t

[Ichingcarpenter]

60. 6% margin right now n/t

[Ichingcarpenter]

67. Still at 6% on 14% jump in the vote n/t

[Ichingcarpenter]

70. still at 6% on 15% jump in the vote n/t

[Ichingcarpenter]

74. still at 6% on 16% of the vote in n/t

[Ichingcarpenter]

75. still at 6% on 18% of the vote in n/t

[Ichingcarpenter]

76. still at 6% on 19% of the vote in n/t

[Ichingcarpenter]

79. still at 6% on 20% of the vote in ...... Remember I said 10% she needs..look below

Is this thread helping anyone? should I continue it?

[Ichingcarpenter]

85. 6% with 22% reported in.... this is good!!! n/t

[Ichingcarpenter]

98. 8% with 37% reported in.... this is still good!!! .... now listen up!!

it will not mean shit for Hillary, trust me......... I haven't been wrong!

The supers said ANYTHING LESS THAN 10% and they move to Obama.

[my3boyz]

105. If it has to be high single digits PLEASE let it be 7 so I can watch those on MSNBC

try to back out of their anything more than 7 would be a disaster for Barack. Well, my bad they said it would be a fundamental problem for him.

[Ichingcarpenter]

111. Pittsburgh will come in late

Watch for it.

[my3boyz]

113. Uh-oh...that is a Clinton stronghold, right? nt

[Ichingcarpenter]

121. Nope.... I read it has changed and now Obama

[my3boyz]

128. Hmm...I guess we will just have to wait and see. I'm keeping one eye on the pop vote totals too.

I hope she is not able to run those numbers up so she won't have the "I have the most popular votes" arguement.

[Willo]

22. MSNBC/NBC has called this too quickly for me

Note the NYTimes Grid at 8:59 p.m. EST:

http://www.nytimes.com/?adxnnl=1&adxnnlx=1208911437-3NNmWFNUlutE9JKYUq6JMw

[MadBadger]

29. No they havent. They are basing this off of NE PA. Obama needed to do a little better to win.

[tishaLA]

25. Gregory is a terrible terrible host

He's like an hysteric.

And I STILL want this fucking race to be over. Now.

[Tatiana]

31. He truly is abysmal. I hate to say it, but I'd rather have bowTie Tucker. n/t

[Ichingcarpenter]

34. No worries these guys want it go further

It is our party and it won't go longer without the 10% or greater number in PA.

[Tatiana]

28. If he loses by less than 10, Obama has done a good job.

I was a little disappointed in the exit polling data from Pittsburgh. I thought he'd do better there.

[dancingme]

30. this makes me a stronger supporter

than I was before. We will win!

[cui bono]

32. Rachel Maddow: He sent her into debt and still has $40mn. n/t

[knixphan]

33. funny

Never thought that UTAH would be an easier state to win than PA

PA's gotta evolve. I hope it does.

[DerekJ]

35. 52- 48

Per CNN
:bounce:

[my3boyz]

38. What % in? nt

[Ichingcarpenter]

39. 7% in on the voting

I don't listen to these talking heads.

[Kittycat]

36. Philly Numbers look Good - 55-45 Obama ahead 25% reporting

http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2008/primaries/results/state/#PA

[tishaLA]

44. the exit polls had him up much more than that

wtf?

[high density]

40. McAullife on MSNBC

Telling us how important PA is because it's blue. Then talks about Florida and Kentucky. :crazy:

[MadBadger]

42. I switched to CNN for that.

[Coexist]

50. I've switched permanently to CNN - Joe and Pat are too creepy

I can't watch the for too long.

I like John King's map and explanations, too.

[Ichingcarpenter]

55. I mute it... Harold Ford and JOe are on.

God I hate watching TV news.

[Coexist]

64. I can't even watch Joe and Mika in the a.m. any more

how are his ratings? Do you know?

[Ichingcarpenter]

43. He has to do his ra ra ra stuff

Don't worry folks the margins won't be there for Hillary.

10% or less is a super-delegate flood.

[JBoy]

45. I heard McAuliffe on the Ed Schultz show today

I've learned that whenever he says "let's be clear", he's about to be anything BUT clear.

Ed: "So, if Hillary win PA by 10%, she's going to need to win each of the remaining states by (I think he said) 68%. Will she be able to do that?"

Terry: "Let's be clear". He then followed this with at least 100 words that were nowhere near a "yes" or a "no" answer.

I saw him do the same "let's be clear" lead in on CNN the other day.

[JBoy]

49. .

[RepublicanElephant]

46. boy, joe really wants IN that democratic cloakroom.

!

[Drunken Irishman]

48. Well it doesn't look like we can hope for 5 or less.

So I guess 10 or less, even though now this means Clinton goes on. She'll spin this as a win.

[MadBadger]

51. I still dont see why we cant hope for 5 or less.

[Drunken Irishman]

57. I don't know, because they called it so early?

You'd think if the exit polls were reporting 5 or less, they'd wait until more raw numbers were in before calling it.

[MadBadger]

71. Here is the issue. I think Obama will eventually pull away in Philly, but 40% is already in

Though I think the heavy Obama areas havent come in yet.

[Drunken Irishman]

72. I hope.

[JBoy]

52. CNN: 55-45, with 10% reporting.

[johnnydrama]

53. how to look at tonights results

The total numbers, and the philly numbers. I noted that the total changed to 10%, but in that update their were no new philly numbers. so that skewed it towards hillary on that update.

[Hamlette]

54. Could Harold Ford be more obnoxious

oh yeah, Joe is more obnoxious

But really.

Ack.

[angie_love]

59. He tries so hard to be "objective" hes really annoying

[global1]

56. This Guy On CNN With The Map Is Comparing Apples And Oranges......

he's showing the counties Hillary is winning tonight and comparing that against the GE's of Bush/Kerry and Bush/Gore.

To be fair wouldn't he have to compare the results in the Kerry's and Gore's primaries in the state instead of the GE.

Again - I don't think the argument that Barack can't win the big states is valid. This is a primary amongst two Dems and not an election between a Dem and a Repug.

They are foisting a bogus argument when they say he won't be able to win the big states in a GE. Why doesn't somebody call them on this?

[MadBadger]

61. Thats why the SDs arent buying it.

[Ichingcarpenter]

63. Well, keep us informed...... Clinton News Network

we need the info on the spin.

[angie_love]

62. 53-47 Clinton with 12 % in

[Drunken Irishman]

If that's what it is with 100%, I'll be happy.

[quiet.american]

65. At 7% reporting, they started calling it for Clinton? I suppose there's a method to the madness.

Granted, I expected her to win in PA. However, if it's so close, why did they start calling it for her with less than 10% of precincts reporting?

[Drunken Irishman]

68. That's why I'm wondering if it really is all that close.

Generally when they call it this early, the exit poll data shows one candidate leading large enough where they can risk it. So that means the exit polling data probably had Clinton winning by more than 5 points, maybe even 10.

[Coexist]

66. FYI - The Atlantic: How they were able to call it so early

http://marcambinder.theatlantic.com/archives/2008/04/heres_how_the_nets_were_able_t.php

They're merging the exit poll data with quick tallies from specially selected model precincts across the state. Clinton in those precincts is outperforming her margin in the exit polls.

[Drunken Irishman]

69. Well that doesn't look good for Obama, then.

He may very well lose by double digits.

[my3boyz]

80. Gosh will you please stop being so negative. I know you are nervous

I know you are worried but don't view everything that comes in in the most negative light. Please...

[Drunken Irishman]

81. I try, but I'm bummed.

Bummed because it appears the media is giving in to Clinton's talking point.

[my3boyz]

84. Of course they are. What else is new? LOL Keep your head up

Obama will be standing tall after this flashing that beautiful smile at us.

[my3boyz]

88. Popular vote shows her with only at net of 20-something thousand rt now

I hope he keeps her popular vote gain down too. After this state it will be hard for her to make that up. I think Indiana will be fairly close. Then Obama is expected to blow-out a few states. She is expected to blow-out a few so they will essentially cancel each other out. Gosh I hope the margins stay close. I guess we will just have to wait and see. :)

[Ichingcarpenter]

87. Turn the sound off, watch the numbers and listen to some music

[crispini]

77. Pat Buchanan just told Rachel Maddow to "hold the Marxist dialectic."

LOL. what an asshat.

[Ichingcarpenter]

82. She has his number on his weak logical arguments

A dialectic is not Marxism but a recognized branch of logic.

I have the sound off, listening to music.

[JBoy]

90. Pat dreams nightly of going back to fight the Cold War.

[RepublicanElephant]

78. RING THE BELL, KEITH!

!

[bigbrother05]

83. 53 - 47 with 22%

[MadBadger]

89. CNN Exit Polls shift to 5-6 point victory.

[my3boyz]

91. If this holds true will MSNBC turn on Hillary since they said she needed at least 7 pts?

Of course I already know the answer to that. LOL

[Drunken Irishman]

93. Of course not.

They'll say she battled back, fought off Obama and proved she can carry on.

No one forgets he erased a 20 point lead in a matter of a week.

[MadBadger]

92. Wow, Exit Polls really screwed up in Philly. CNN has him winning there 62-38

And the Philly suburbs 57-43. Thats a big change from what originally was reported.

[JBoy]

94. CNN: 54-46, with 33% reporting.

Philly precincts 63% reported.

[my3boyz]

96. But those areas outside Philly have not. MSNBC claimed this morning

that Barack was tied with her in like Lancaster and was doing good in York. Who knows if that will pan out tonight though. I'm proud of Barack though. I remember the other day they said the only place he would win was Philly. I see a couple of places for him. :)

[MadBadger]

97. Hes not doing well right now in Bucks Couny and is down in Delaware.

[my3boyz]

99. Bummer. nt

[Drunken Irishman]

100. Hillary is going to win by 10%.

[my3boyz]

101. I'm not sure. It seems like he is doing better than Ohio too me and that was 10 pts.

Could be wrong though. There is a lot more to report.

[MadBadger]

102. The exit polls shifted on us

[Drunken Irishman]

104. It feels just like Ohio for me.

Exit polling data is a lot closer than the actual vote. :(

[angie_love]

125. dude you're a good guy and all but you need to chill out abit. Reading your posts are depressing.

[Ichingcarpenter]

103. Nope.... Are you following my thread in this?

She has 8% that is not gonna do it.....

It makes the math even worse for her..... don't listen to these assholes.

[my3boyz]

109. Maybe he can keep her popular vote net gain to 150,000..that

would be good. It would be hard for her to catch up.

[underpants]

95. Congrats folks

:hi:

[Ichingcarpenter]

107. We Won thanks...... anything less than 10%.. and she is broke...

OF course you guys don't do math do you?

[my3boyz]

110. I will happily take less than 10% in a state tailor made for her.. nt

[book_worm]

106. Do any of you think Sebilius or McCaskill would be a good VP for Obama?

he may need a shot in the arm with female voters, especially older females and I think these two would be excellent and have proven to be strong surrogates.

[MadBadger]

108. No to the second, yes to the first

McCaskill is even less experienced. If any women, Id like to see Barbara Boxer, though Sebelius is a good candidate as well.

[my3boyz]

112. Not a female but I was thinking

that Casey might have been good for him if he was not new to the Senate too. They seem to really get along and he would probably appeal to the rural voters in Ohio and PA. However, he does not have enough experience.

I like Claire but I think the other poster is right when they say that he needs someone with more experience to strengthen the ticket.

[Ichingcarpenter]

118. No....... Howard Dean

is available he won't take another term.

I would love Boxer, but hate to lose the seat
and my close relationship with her.

[uponit7771]

119. Yeap, just thought of the KS governer...she's smart, that's what Washington needs

[JBoy]

114. CNN: Still 54-46, with 48% reporting

What's the story with Chester and Montgomery, outside of Philly? They're 0% reported.

[uponit7771]

115. The votes in big counties haven't been counted yet, some reporting at 0 and 6%

[EndElectoral]

Limbaugh's Operation Chaos candidate wins...a sad day for the Dem party

[JMDEM]

116. What are the projections for the remaining 50%?

Pro Obama areas? Pro Hillary areas?

[Laura PourMeADrink]

117. What the hell happened to the media's watermarks they talked

about constantly. Instead of saying, Hey Hillary you suck - they
are putting it ALL on Obama !

Chuck Todd said 7 was the magic number (like he's God, right?)

[MadBadger]

120. Like usual, they changed it on us.

[my3boyz]

122. Did he just say that again? nt

[Ichingcarpenter]

127. The supers said 10 today...... I have a inside track

believe me.

[Aloha Spirit]

123. Breaking--Hillary takes the "deerhunter" vote

[PA Democrat]

124. Southeastern PA still has a large number of unreported votes

Obama is supposed to do well there. Western PA has a large % of vote in. I think the numbers will get closer.

[MadBadger]

129. So far, he is losing all the counties, including Montgomery

[MadBadger]

126. Obama down 8 in Montgomery County with 13% in...WTF?

[MadBadger]

130. Obama up to 64% in Philly...thats an improvement.

Where did everybody go?

[Drunken Irishman]

131. I was wondering the same thing.

I think people are a bit bummed he didn't do better. What's the state wide total?

[dempartisan23]

133. obama needs to change strategy

i dont understand why he doesnt make commercials saying fatbag supports hillary.

[Ichingcarpenter]

136. Dinner and a neighbor's dog problem

8% is not gonna do it, no matter what anyone says on TV or here.

[thewiseguy]

132. When is this shit going to be over...

[dempartisan23]

139. is chester co an obama county?

no report from there

[MadBadger]

141. Should be, but so far the philly burbs are with Clinton

I expect that would change though.

[dempartisan23]

142. its still 8%

its still possible to keep the margin under 10

[GetTheRightVote]

134. Let's not forget Hillary takes the old, racist vote as well, but

Obama is still going to be our candidate, thank you.

[oviedodem]

135. Hillary has already asked for the cash.

[MadBadger]

137. I turned on John Oliver on Comedy Central.

[Kittycat]

138. Jesus - She just stole Obama's PA Speech!

What the fuck?

[MadBadger]

140. Obama didnt speak yet did he?

[Kittycat]

144. His Philly speech and Perfect Union

[MadBadger]

145. Wow, Im watching John Oliver instead.

I cant watch the cable news anymore.

[MadBadger]

143. Delaware and Centre County flipped to Obama

[thewiseguy]

146. The lead will probably stay at 8 or go down to 6

Depending on the vote total from Chester county

[dempartisan23]

151. why no reports from chester?

[grantcart]

147. "the low road to victory" from a clinton endorsed newspaper

[Drunken Irishman]

148. So someone tell me how it looks.

Is it still 8 points? I have the TV off and am looking at other stuff online.

[tishaLA]

149. still 8

but look for it to go lower than that.

[MadBadger]

150. Jeez, its 55-45 again.

Chester still fully out.

[Drunken Irishman]

153. It's ugly.

I thought it would be a closer win for her.

10+ is an Obama loss and no amount of spinning will do anything.

Cue the next person to say I'm too negative, but it's true. Sure he has the nomination locked up, but he didn't put her away tonight and now we have to sit through another match of primaries.

[MadBadger]

155. Well chester coming in could hopefully change that, and Montgomery is still mostly otu.

[Drunken Irishman]

156. If he can pull it within 9, I'm ok with that.

[MadBadger]

157. Looks like it will either be 8 or 10

[my3boyz]

159. Why do you think 8 or 10 instead of 9. LOL nt

[Frank Booth]

169. Yep. It looks like this is going to the convention. McCain's the big winner.

[bdamomma]

152. kind of disappointed with the results, but it's not over yet.

I wish they both would gang up on McInsane. Very good Obama.

[MadBadger]

154. Chester coming in, 55-45 Obama with 10 percent in.

[Aloha Spirit]

161. Montgomery's been turning too....

[Aloha Spirit]

158. 84% in, delegate gain is Clinton +3??? Ouch!

[my3boyz]

162. Darn but she is approaching 200,000 with net popular vote

I don't want her dipping into his popular vote like that. Ugh! At least it is not the 250,000 that Chuck Todd said she might get. At least not yet!

[my3boyz]

163. Did Obama speak yet? nt

[PM7nj]

160. Hey Bucks Co... wtf?

I don't know much about Bucks County, but I am a bit surprised at the margin there. Of all the Philly suburbs the only one I thought might go to Clinton was Delaware. Guess I was wrong.

[Aloha Spirit]

167. Sweet--Bucks Co. just turned into a 4-3 delegate break for Clinton, not 5-2

[MadBadger]

168. But why is it going so much for Clinton?

[MadBadger]

175. Fuckin a' Her lead is 54.8-45.2

[my3boyz]

164. I don't know about all of you but I feel so much better

with PA pretty much behind us. I know we still have to wait to see officially how far apart they will be. However, now she no longer has a big advantage in a large state. She is not going to win North Carolina. I think Barack will surprise people and come in relatively close in Indiana. Also, now we don't have to hear the media steadily hang PA over our heads. I still hope it narrows to 9 instead of 10. But 10 is definately better than the 20 pts that he was down.

[MadBadger]

165. Its currently 54.9-45.1

[Aloha Spirit]

166. I'm right there with you....

[Aloha Spirit]

172. 54.7% for those still up.....

[Frank Booth]

170. She might stretch this to 11% with Bucks, Lehigh and Montgomery.

The Philadelphia suburbs are what really hurt Obama.

[Aloha Spirit]

171. Nah, her leads came early in vote reporting. Her edge is slowly incrementally fading.

[Aloha Spirit]

174. montgomery and chester only remaining areas with significant votes to count.

[Aloha Spirit]

178. now just chester to go....

[MadBadger]

173. Edit: And now the lead has grown again.

[Aloha Spirit]

176. for anyone who missed my post, let's keep in mind that according to CNN Exit Poll Clinton got about

a 20,000 vote edge from people who said they WOULD NOT vote for her in the Fall.
That's about 1.7% of her votes from spoilers/people who got confused.

[Aloha Spirit]

177. I'm going to go back over the exit polls since March 4 and see where else she got margins like this.

[Aloha Spirit]

179. Anyone else notice that Obama got about 14,000 new donors today?

I can live with that :toast:

[MadBadger]

180. Clinton raised 2.5 million since PA was called.

[Aloha Spirit]

181. touche... I'll see your $2.5 million and raise you this, Obama-- 1,000 NEW donors in the last 45 min

[MadBadger]

182. this race isnt about money. I think PA, OH, and TX have proved that.

[Aloha Spirit]

183. Alright good night. Thanks for keeping me company... final seems to be 54.7/45.3

[ClericJohnPreston]

184. OBAMA LOSES

FLYERS WIN.

I call that a great night :)

[Aloha Spirit]

185. For anybody who wants to watch the remaining votes come in, here are some good sites

http://content.usatoday.com/news/politics/election2008/results.aspx?sp=PA
http://www.dailykos.com/story/2008/4/22/11912/6533/642/500733
http://ruralvotes.com/thefield/