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THIS is why I post concerns about voting in ANY state with these machines. 1. That the exit polls were WRONG...
2. That Zogby's 5pm election day calls for Kerry winning
Ohio and Florida and New Mexico and Iowa were
WRONG. He was exactly RIGHT (within 1%) in his final
2000 poll.
3. That Harris's election day polling calling it for Kerry
was WRONG. He was exactly RIGHT (even closer than
Zogby) in 2000.
4. That Incumbent Rule I (undecideds break for the
challenger) was WRONG.
5. That Incumbent Rule II (an incumbent never exceeds
his final polling) was WRONG.
6. That Incumbent Rule III (an incumbent under 50% job
approval will most likely lose) was WRONG.
7. That Greg Palast was WRONG when he said that prior
to the election, that one million votes were stolen from
Kerry. Palast was the ONLY reporter to break the story
that 90,000 blacks in Florida were illegally disenfranchised
in 2000.
8. That it was just a COINCIDENCE that the exit polls
were ACCURATE in states where there WAS a PAPER
TRAIL and WRONG (heavily in favor of Bush) where there
was NO VOTER VERIFIED PAPER TRAIL.
9. That the surge in new young voters had NO positive
effect for Kerry.
10. That Bush BEAT 99-1 pre-election polling odds and
10,000,000-1 post-election exit poll odds in winning
the election.
11. That Kerry did WORSE than Gore against an opponent
who LOST the support of SCORES of Republican
newspapers who were for Bush in 2000.
12. That Bush did better than an 18 national poll average
which showed him tied with Kerry at 47. In other
words, Bush got 80% of the undecided vote to end up
with a 51-48 majority - when ALL professional pollsters
agree that the undecided vote ALWAYS goes to the challenger.
13. That voting machines manufactured and programmed
by Republicans without a no paper trail and
no software publication, and which have been proven by
thousands of computer scientists to be vulnerable in
scores of ways, were NOT tampered with in this election.
14. That people who voted for Bush were not anxious to
speak to exit pollsters in the states that Bush had to win
(like Florida and Ohio) where the exit polls were off, but
wanted to be polled in states that he had sewn up (like
Arizona, Louisiana and Arkansas) where the exit polls were
exactly correct.
15. That Democrats who voted for Kerry were very anxious
to be exit-polled, especially in Florida and Ohio. That accounts
for the discrepancy between the exit polls and the
actual votes in these two critical states.
16. That women were much more likely to be polled early in
the day in Florida and Ohio. That is another reason why the
exit polls were wrong in those states. In those states in
which the exit polls were correct to within one percent,
women did not come out early.
17. That the University of Pennsylvania Professor (trained at
MIT) who calculated the probability of Bush gaining votes
beyond the exit polling margin of error as ONE out of 250
million, does not have any credibility.
18. That network newscasters who claim that those who
consider the possibility of fraud are just wild conspiracy
theorists do not have an agenda.
19. That it is just a coincidence that only since the 2000
presidential election have exit polls failed to agree with the
actual vote - and that Bush won both disputed elections.
20. That exit polls are not to be trusted in the United States,
even though they are used throughout the world to monitor
elections for fraud.
21. That even though more votes were cast than there were
eligible voters in precincts of the critical states, it is not an
important enough an issue to be covered in the media.
22. That the absence of a paper ballot trail for touch screen
computers does not encourage fraud, even though they
have been proven by hundreds of computer experts to be
highly vulnerable to fraudulent attack.
23. That statistical tests which indicate a high probability of
fraud are just conspiratorial junk science.
24. That Bush voters were more reluctant than Democrats
to speak to exit pollsters due to the fact that it was raining
in the East.
25. That Mitofsky, with 25 years of experience, has lost his
exit polling touch.
26. That by disputing the Ukrainian elections, the Bush
administration would base its case on the accuracy of U.S.
sponsored exit polling, while at the same time ignoring exit
polls in the U.S. presidential election, which the media reported
Kerry was winning handily.
27. That Bush’s vote tallies could exceed his exit poll percentage
in FL by 4%. Based on 2846 individuals exit polled,
the polling margin of error was 1.84%.
The odds of this occurrence: 1 out of 1667.
28. That Bush’s vote tallies could exceed his exit poll
percentage in OH by 3%. Based on 1963 individuals exit
polled, the polling margin of error was 2.21%.
The odds of this occurrence: 1 out of 333.
29. That Bush’s vote tallies could exceed his exit poll
percentages in 42 of 50 states - INCLUDING ALL 22
STATES IN THE EASTERN TIME ZONE. The odds of 42 out
of 50 states deviating to Bush: 1 in 1.7 million.
30. That Bush’s vote tallies could exceed the margin of
error in 17 states. Not one state vote tally exceeded the
MOE for Kerry. The odds: 1 in 300 trillion.
31 That Bush’s vote tallies could exceed his exit poll by
at least 2% in 22 states. The probability: as close to ZERO
as you can get.
32. That of 88 documented touch screen incidents, 86
voters would see their vote for Kerry come up Bush -
and only TWO from Bush to Kerry.
The probability: as close to ZERO as you can get.
33. That Kerry would win the National Exit Poll of 13,047
(1.0% margin of error) (based on Party-ID weighting) by
50.9% to 47.1% and Bush would win with 50.73% of the
vote. The odds: 1 in 2 trillion.
34. That Kerry would win the 21 million new voters by
3-2 over Bush (59%-39%) and still lose.
35. That Kerry would win in every calculation of the
votes based on the following weighted National Exit Poll
categories:
............ Bush.....Kerry.......Nader
GENDER...... 48.22% 50.78% 1.00%
EDUCATION..48.05% 50.21% 1.17%
INCOME...... 48.12% 51.42% 0.95%
RACE......... 47.86% 50.94% 1.00%
AGE........... 48.17% 50.53% 1.00%
PARTY-ID... 47.77% 50.69% 0.92%
IDEOLOGY... 48.15% 49.85% 1.00%
RELIGION.... 47.90% 50.85% 1.18%
MILITARY.... 47.62% 51.20% 1.00%
DECIDED..... 47.95% 51.23% 0.54%
ISSUES...... 47.92% 50.80% 1.28%
REGION...... 47.95% 50.53% 1.00%
VOTED 2000. 47.09% 50.90% 1.19%
AVERAGE..... 47.91% 50.76% 1.02%
36. That 99% of 50,000 reported voting machine
anomalies, glitches and other incidents favored Bush,
but it was all just a big coincidence.
37. That the USCountVotes.org document, signed by Dr.
Freeman and 10 other Mathematics/Statistics Professors
and researchers from major universities around the
country, which concludes that the exit polls were right
and the vote counts were wrong, should be discounted
as just another conspiracy theory.
38. That the Final
National Exit Poll (FEP) of 13660 respondents, which was
matched to the recorded vote and had Bush the winner
by 51-48%, had to be accurate. And you must also believe
that the Preliminary Exit Poll (PEP) of 13047 which
had Kerry the winner by 51-48% had to be inaccurate.
39. That if the FEP re-weighted the PEP percentage of
Bush 2000 voters who voted in 2004 (from 41% to 43%)
and also adjusted the corresponding Gore voters (from
38% to 37%), then the re-weighting accurately reflects
the final vote count - which Bush won by 51-48%.
And it would, if Bush 2000 voters did in fact comprise
43% of all 2004 voters (122.26 million). But they didn’t,
because the ABSOLUTE MAXIMUM percentage of Bush
2000 voters who could have voted in 2004 was 41.3%
(50.45/122.26). This is the same 41% (rounded?) as
given in the PEP, which Kerry won by 51-48%. And so
even 41.3% is too high, for it assumes that NOT ONE
Bush 2000 voter died prior to 2004, and that EVERY
Bush 2000 voter also voted in 2004. Knowing this is
impossible, why would you believe the FEP that said
Bush won by 51-48%, since this very result assumes an
impossibility?
40. That the 43% (52.57 million) of Bush 2000 voters
who voted in 2004 must be LESS than the total Bush
vote in 2000, since it is obvious that a certain percentage
of Bush 2000 voters have passed on. And we can
also assume that other former Bush voters either could
not or would not vote in 2004. But it wasn't LESS, it was
MORE, so why would you believe it?
41. That the 43% statistic is accurate since Bush won by
51-48% and this weighted result assumes 43%. But for
this result to be true, then you must also believe that
Bush had at least two million more votes in 2000 than
the 50.45 million he was credited with. But we know this
is not true, so why would you believe it?
42. That the published U.S. annual death rate of 0.87%
is incorrect, because if it were true, then it follows that
about 3.5% of the population dies during each four year
period. Therefore, Bush must have received at least 54.3
million votes in 2000 (52.57+1.75), if we assume that
1.75 million (or 3.5%) of Bush voters in 2000 passed on.
This is a necessary condition in order to believe the 43%
statistic. But Bush only received 50.45 million votes, so
why would you believe it?
43. That Kerry won only 51% of the female vote, although
the PEP had him winning by 54-45%. Gore won 54% of females
in 2000. So why would you believe the FEP?
44. That the FEP Party ID weights were 37% Democrat/37%
Republican/ 26% Independents, while the PEP had it 38/35/
27 - virtually the same as the final exit poll Party_ID demographic
in the prior three elections.
45. That even though Kerry won at least 4 million more
votes than Bush among the 17% (21 million) voters who did
NOT vote in 2000 (Kerry led 57-41% in the PEP, 54-45% in
the FEP), he would still lose the election. Why would you
believe it?
46. That even though Kerry won the new voters and those
who did not vote in 2000 by at least 4 million (12-8 million),
and that the Bush 2004 vote based on the 43% Bush
2000 voter stat was at least 3 million too high, Bush still
gained 12 million votes from 2000 (from 50 to 62 million).
Why would you believe it?
47. That the Reluctant Bush Responder (RBR) theory is true.
Otherwise, how else could one explain the PEP exit poll
discrepancies which had Kerry winning? But if you believe
RBR, how can you also believe that 43% of Bush 2000 voters
came to the polls in 2004, but only 37% did for Gore? Both
statements CANNOT be true, because they are contradictory,
yet they MUST BOTH both be true if one is to believe
that Bush really did win the election. But why would you
believe it?
Compiled by TruthIsAll on DemocraticUnderground.com
For more information:
2004ElectionTheft.com
DemocraticUnderground.com
shadowbox.i8.com
solarbus.org/election/
freepress.org
gregpalast.com
blackboxvoting.org
truthout.org
commondreams.org
USCountVotes.org
whatreallyhappened.com/2004votefraud.html
http://www.organikrecords.com/corporatenewslies/tobelievetrifold.pdfETA carriage returns