Projected results after Pennsylvania, Indiana & North Carolina

[EmperorHasNoClothes]

- Based on the most recent SurveyUSA polls, which have proven to be fairly accurate.
- Assuming the delegates are awarded proportionally to the raw vote count (this assumption probably slightly favors Clinton)
- Assuming Guam is a tie (4 delegates total, 2 to each candidate)

Pennsylvania (polling 44% O / 50% C)
74 Obama
84 Clinton

Indiana (polling 39% O / 55% C)
30 Obama
42 Clinton

North Carolina (polling 49% O / 39% C)
64 Obama
51 Clinton


Pledged delegates, including the above:
1590 Obama (+162)
1428 Clinton
Clinton would need 87% of all remaining pledged delegates to tie Obama's pledged delegates

Pledged + superdelegates, including the above:
1821 Obama (+138)
1683 Clinton
Obama would need 39% of all remaining delegates (pledged + super) to win the nomination
Clinton would need 65% of all remaining delegates (pledged + super) to win the nomination

[Cant trust em]

1. Uh oh. We've got some math.

Sure to piss off at least a few posters.

[SoCalDem]

10. math is the work of SATAN !

:rofl:

[Cant trust em]

18. Satan is such an elitist. NT

[Kittycat]

2. I love Math.

It's very comforting.

[Ichingcarpenter]

3. Tens ofThousands of Pennsylvanians are switching parties to vote for Obama

Thousands of Pennsylvanians are switching parties to vote for Obama
By David Lightman | McClatchy Newspapers


WILLIAMSPORT, Pa. — David Butler voted for Richard Nixon in 1972, then kept voting for GOP candidates through Watergate, Reaganomics and the Bill Clinton years.

This year, though, the 59-year-old teacher switched his registration to Democrat, and he said he plans to vote Tuesday for Illinois Sen. Barack Obama.

Since Jan. 1, more than 178,000 people in Pennsylvania have changed their party affiliations, and 92 percent of them have gone from Republican or independent to Democrat.>>>>>snip


http://www.mcclatchydc.com/100/story/34368.html

[rug]

4. Throw in Kentucky and West Virginia.

[EmperorHasNoClothes]

6. Ok:

SurveyUSA has Kentucky at 26% Obama, 62% Clinton. They don't have numbers for West Virginia, so let's just say West Virginia also ends up 26% Obama, 62% Clinton.

That will leave Obama +129 in pledged delegates, and +105 in overall delegates.
Clinton would need 97% of all remaining pledged delegates to tie Obama's pledged delegates

Obama would need 41% of remaining pledged + super for the nomination
Clinton would need 64% of remaining pledged + super for the nomination

[Tom Rinaldo]

15. Here is what gets overlooked

The only way Clinton can win the nomination is if there is a growing sense that she is by far the better candidate to run against McCain. And it would have to be a pretty compelling case. Obama would need to really stumble to the finish line, Hillary would need to do better than expected in primaries where she was thought to be weak and very well where she is strong. National opinion polls would need to swing strongly in her favor, she would need to clearly match up better than McCain in electoral vote projections etc.

If all of those things happened Obama would very possibly lose some of his current SD's. I figure Clinton would really need to win about 58-60% of the remaining delelegates in her best case scenario, factorng in that in her best (and only case to win scenario) a lot of SD's would likely stast having deep reservations about nominating Obama afterall.

[Citizen Kang]

5. And those are some VERY FAVORABLE outcomes for HRC

I think that Obama will do much better than what you are projecting in Indiana.

[EmperorHasNoClothes]

8. This is probably a worst-case scenario for Obama

He always manages to close the gap as the primary approaches. It is quite possible he will outperform the SurveyUSA poll in Pennsylvania, given the demographic layout of that state and the fact that other reliable polls have him ahead of Clinton.

[Zachstar]

7. edit: Removed

[george_maniakes]

9. Do you have the numbers handy if you throw in florida and michigan? n/t

[SoCalDem]

12. throw them where??

The Atlantic ocean? Lake Michigan?


sorry.. you set me up ..cannot help myself:evilgrin:

[Catchawave]

11. Can we please change the Dem primary system in 2012 ?

Winner take all, lose the Supers?

So much easier :D

[SoCalDem]

13. No supers..but not winner take all

Early primaries;;

1st..50%
2nd..30%
all others...divvy up 20%

when it's down to 2

winner 70%
2nd 30%

[LSK]

14. once the campaign moves to NC and IN, the numbers will change

In favor of Obama.

[ihelpu2see]

16. I believe he is doing better than that in Indiana. eom

[meow mix]

17. yay math!