The Fat Lady is Clearing Her Throat

[tiptoe]

The Fat Lady is Clearing Her Throat
TruthIsAll     http://www.geocities.com/electionmodel/FatLadyClearing.htm

April 17, 2008

The latest Reuters-Zogby National poll gives Obama a 51–38 lead. And in a Zogby Pennsylvania poll released today, Clinton’s lead has been reduced to one point, 45–44. Her lead was 15–20 points a month ago — and there are still 5 days to go before the primary. At the height of the Rev. Wright flap on March 15, Clinton had a 49–42 lead in the national Gallup Tracking poll; Obama now leads by 49–42.


At that time, Clinton led the PA 5-poll moving average () by 53–36; she currently leads by 48–42 (including the Zogby poll). View the poll numbers at the Real Clear Politics Pennsylvania Primary Polls.

The Excel Delegate Calculator projects final pledged and super delegates. Obama currently leads Clinton by 1415–1253 in pledged delegates. For Clinton to catch Obama, she needs 64% of the vote in the remaining primaries. The super delegate trend () is clearly in Obama’s favor. On Feb. 20, Clinton led Obama by 81 super delegates (246–165). She now leads by just 27: 259–232. If Obama wins 50% of the remaining pledged delegates, he will need just 92 (30%) of the 303 uncommitted super delegates to clinch the nomination.

Clinton has been well-known since 1992 while Obama became a national figure in 2004. Therefore, Clinton can be considered to be the incumbent. Historically, challengers have won 75% or more of the undecided vote, especially when the incumbent is unpopular — and Clinton's negatives are much higher than Obama's. Assuming Obama wins 75% of the undecided vote in PA, the adjusted 5-poll average is 50–50%. If Obama continues to close the gap, he could win PA — but only if the votes are fairly counted.

The Obama speech defused the Wright controversy. Hillary decided to promote the fiction of ducking Bosnia sniper fire — which backfired when photos proved it was all a sham. Then Senator Casey came out for Obama. So did the well-respected Bill Richardson, who was promptly called a “Judas” by James Carville, a Clinton DLC hack. Finally, Clinton’s campaign advisor Mark Penn was found lobbying in Columbia for free trade, contra to Clinton’s stated position. But who still believes her? After all, Bill Clinton has also lobbied (very lucratively) for free trade with Columbia. When Hillary was asked about this, she had no rational response — just her trademark cackle. It has not been a good month for Clinton.

Obama has a chance of winning the PA primary based on the following:

1. his steady increase in national and PA polling,
   
2. the majority of the 10-12% undecided voters should break for Obama,
   
3. the large increase in Democratic urban voter registration is not reflected in the polls,
   
4. Casey (D-PA) and Rooney (Steelers president) endorsements,
   
5. his big edge in advertising cash,
   
6. Teamsters and other union endorsements

Many fall into the trap of assuming that the recorded vote is correct; they assume Zero fraud. For those who claim that Zogby is unreliable or worse, know this: Elections are stolen. Zogby was right in 2004, when his final polling indicated that Kerry would win. But the election was stolen. It was not Zogby’s polling that was off: over 3 million ballots were uncounted and at least 4 million votes were switched electronically from Kerry to Bush. Remember Ohio?

The pollsters who matched the fraudulent recorded vote in 2004 were by definition wrong — unless they factored in the fraud beforehand. But none of them did. And the polls which indicated that Kerry would win were close to the True vote. Their pre-election polls were confirmed by the unadjusted state and national exit polls: Kerry was a 52–47% winner. He won by approximately 8 million votes.

And for those who criticize Zogby’s primary polling, consider these facts: 1) the New Hampshire fiasco: every pre-election poll had Obama winning by an average of 8 points. The early NH exit poll confirmed that he won — before the final exit poll was matched to the recorded vote; 2) 90,000 LA ballots were never counted, disenfranchising independent voters; 3) Rush Limbaugh’s “Operation Chaos” convinced Republicans to cross over and vote for Hillary in Texas, Ohio and Missisippi; 4) ZERO votes for Obama in NY Harlem districts. The media won't talk about these footprints of primary election fraud.

Gallup Tracking Poll      
Event                     1-day *             3-day MA      
                        BO     HRC           BO     HRC
                 3/8    49     44            49     44
                        47     46            48     45
                        45     45            47     45
                        52     47            48     46
                        53     40            50     44
Wright flap
                 3/14   42     51            49     46
                        49     44            48     45
                        44     46            45     47
                        39     51            44     47
                        43     50            42     49
Obama speech
                 3/19   47     43            43     48
                        45     48            45     47
                        52     44            48     45
                        44     46            47     46
                        45     45            47     45
SniperGate          
                 3/25   52     47            47     46
                        47     40            48     44
                        51     39            50     42
Casey endorsement
                        51     49            50     43
                        54     38            52     42
  
                 3/30   48     42            51     43
                        45     55            49     45
                        54     41            49     46
                        48     42            49     46
                        45     49            49     44
PennGate     
                 4/4    54     41            49     44
                        48     48            49     46
                        54     40            52     43
                 4/7    51     41            51     43
                        48     42            51     41
  
                        51     43            50     42
                 4/10   54     41            51     42
The Bitter Truth
CackleGate
                 4/11   42     42            49     42
                 4/12   54     40            50     41
                 4/13   54     38            50     40
  
                 4/14   45     42            51     40
                 4/15   51     46            50     42
                 4/16   51     38            49     42
ABCDebateGate

*Calculated

[AX10]

1. Zogby's brother is also an Obama superdelegate.

[mcctatas]

4. So what?

Zogby's accuracy has been crap lately, but who his brother supports doesn't matter. You diminish your legitimate beefs when you say stupid shit like that...

[AX10]

7. That could play into why there is such a bias in his polls.

[mcctatas]

9. there's no bias...

his polls just suck!

[tiptoe]

17. April 18 -- Obama is leading the adjusted 5-poll average by 51.2 -- 48.8 ( TIA )

TruthIsAll     http://www.geocities.com/electionmodel/FatLadyClearing.htm

April 18, 2008

At the height of the Rev. Wright flap on March 15, Clinton led in PA by 53–36. The current PA 5-poll moving average () indicates that the race is now competitive: Clinton leads by just 3 points: 46–43. Clinton also had a 49–42 lead nationally in the Gallup poll. Obama now leads by 47–44, a drop from 49–42 the day before. View the PA polling detail at Real Clear Politics.


Clinton has been in the public arena since 1992. Obama only became a national figure in 2004, when he gave the keynote speech at the Democratic convention and was elected to the Senate. For this reason, Clinton can be considered as the pseudo-incumbent. Historically, the challenger has won 75% or more of the undecided vote, especially when the incumbent was unpopular. Polls show that Clinton’s negatives are much higher than Obama’s. Gallup allocated 90% of late undecideds to Kerry in 2004. Zogby and Harris have allocated 67-80%.

Allocating 75% of the undecided PA voters to Obama, he is leading the adjusted 5-poll average by 51.2–48.8 (). There are still 4 days to go before the primary. If Obama continues to close the gap, he could very well win — but only if the votes are fairly counted.
...
There are some who criticize Zogby’s polling record. But they fall into the trap of assuming that the recorded vote is the true vote which implies zero fraud. But we know that elections are stolen. Zogby was on target in 2004; his final polling indicated that Kerry would win 311 electoral votes and the popular vote by 51–48. How was he to know that 3 million ballots would go uncounted or that 4 million votes would be switched electronically from Kerry to Bush? How was he to know about the shenanigans in Ohio and elsewhere?

Pollsters who predicted Bush would win are lauded. But they matched to a fraudulent recorded vote. The pre-election polls which indicated that Kerry would win were correct and confirmed by the unadjusted state and national exit polls: Kerry was a 52-47 winner and won by 8 million votes.

As for the 2008 primaries, consider these facts: 1) the New Hampshire fiasco: every pre-election poll had Obama winning by an average of 8 points. The early NH exit poll confirmed that he won — before the final exit poll was matched to the recorded vote; 2) 90,000 LA ballots were never counted, disenfranchising independent voters; 3) Rush Limbaugh’s “Operation Chaos” convinced Republicans to cross over and vote for Hillary in Texas, Ohio and Mississippi; 4) there were ZERO votes recorded for Obama in New York City Harlem districts. The media won't talk about these footprints of primary election fraud.
...

[tiptoe]

19. Purple Pennsylvania shifts blue as primary nears - Dem ranks swelling, top 4 million for first time

Purple Pennsylvania shifts blue as primary nears By Robert Schroeder, MarketWatch, April 18[br />

...
Until recently, Sen. John McCain had stacked up about evenly compared to Clinton and Obama here. But presumptive Republican nominee McCain has lost his standing against both Democrats and is now trailing Obama by 8 percentage points and Clinton by 9 points, according to a Rasmussen Reports poll.

Pennsylvania's status as a "purple" state -- closely split between Republicans and Democrats -- makes it a key battleground, and this year appears to be no exception, guaranteeing that candidates will have to craft highly strategic appeals to capture the state. The Keystone State holds 21 electoral votes and has the sixth largest population in the U.S. Democrats outnumber Republicans, but not by much. However, Democrats' ranks have been swelling in Pennsylvania thanks to the pivotal importance of the state's April 22 primary. Recently, their number topped four million for the first time.
...
Now, as Democrats Clinton and Obama take the race for their party's nomination down to the wire, the Pennsylvania primary is getting some unaccustomed national attention.
...
...says [union member] Roberts, who is 60. "[Obama] is not displaying a measure of desperation, as she is, and people pick up on that."
...

[tiptoe]

35. April 19 -- Clinton now leads by just 2 points in the 5-poll Moving Ave: 45.6--43.6

TruthIsAll     http://www.geocities.com/electionmodel/FatLadyClearing.htm

April 19, 2008

At the height of the Rev. Wright flap on March 15, Clinton led in PA by 53–36. The PA 5-poll moving average () indicates that it’s very close: Clinton now leads by just 2 points: 45.6–43.6. View the full set of polls at Real Clear Politics. There are still 3 days to go before the primary. Obama could very well win in PA — but only if the votes are fairly counted.

Obama is leading the RCP moving average of national polls, 48.7–41.0. Clinton has rebounded to a 46–45 lead in the Gallup tracking poll, quite a swing, since she was losing by 10 prior to the debate. A questionable Newsweek poll gives Obama a 19 point lead, 54–35!


How will the 10–12% of voters who are undecided break? Clinton has been in the public arena since 1992. Obama became a national figure in 2004, when he gave the Democratic convention keynote speech a few months before being elected to the Senate. For this reason, Clinton can be considered as the pseudo-incumbent. Historically, challengers have won 75% or more of the undecided vote, especially when the incumbent was unpopular. Clinton’s negatives are much higher than Obama’s. In their final 2004 poll, Gallup allocated 90% of late undecideds to Kerry. Zogby and Harris estimated that 67–80% would break for Kerry.

Assuming that 75% of undecided voters will break for Obama, he is leading the adjusted PA 5-poll average by 51.7–48.3 ().

The Excel Delegate Calculator projects final pledged and super delegates. Obama currently leads Clinton by 1415–1253 in pledged delegates. For Clinton to catch Obama, she needs 64% of the vote in the remaining primaries. The super delegate trend () is clearly in Obama’s favor. On Feb. 20, Clinton led Obama by 81 super delegates (246–165). She now leads by just 27: 259–232. If Obama wins 50% of the remaining pledged delegates, he will need just 92 (30%) of the 303 uncommitted super delegates to clinch the nomination.
...

[tiptoe]

37. April 20 -- Obama takes back the lead in the Gallup tracking poll, 47--45.

TruthIsAll     http://www.geocities.com/electionmodel/FatLadyClearing.htm

April 20, 2008

At the height of the Rev. Wright flap on March 15, Clinton led in PA by 53–36. The PA 5-poll moving average () indicates that it’s very close: Clinton now leads by: 47.0–43.0. View the full set of polls at Real Clear Politics. There are still 2 days to go before the primary. Obama could very well win in PA — but only if the votes are fairly counted.

Obama is leading the RCP moving average of national polls, 49.2–40.7. Obama has taken back the lead 47–45 in the Gallup tracking poll and holds a 46–42 lead in Rasmussen. A Newsweek outlier poll gives Obama a 19 point lead, 54–35!


How will the 10-12% of voters who are undecided break? Clinton has been in the public arena since 1992. Obama became a national figure in 2004, when he gave the Democratic convention keynote speech a few months before being elected to the Senate. For this reason, Clinton can be considered as the pseudo-incumbent. Historically, challengers have won 75% or more of the undecided vote, especially when the incumbent was unpopular. Clinton’s negatives are much higher than Obama’s. In their final 2004 poll, Gallup allocated 90% of late undecideds to Kerry. Zogby and Harris estimated that 67-80% would break for Kerry.

Assuming that 75% of undecided voters will break for Obama, he is leading the adjusted PA 5-poll average () by 50.5–49.5.
...

[tiptoe]

38. April 21 -- "Obama's nomination bid has rebounded among national Democratic voters..." (Gallup)

TruthIsAll     http://www.geocities.com/electionmodel/FatLadyClearing.htm

April 21, 2008

With one day to go before the PA primary, Obama is leading the RCP moving average of national polls, 49.7-40.2. He’s taken back the lead in the Gallup daily tracking poll at 49-42 and leads by 47-42 in the Rasmussen poll. At the height of the Rev. Wright flap, Clinton led in PA by 53-36. Clinton now leads by only 48.4-43.6 in the PA 5-poll moving average ().


Assuming that 75% of the undecided voters break for Obama, Clinton’s lead in the adjusted PA 5-poll average () is a razor-thin 50.4-49.6. But this is a conservative estimate. Over 300,000 newly registered democrats have not been polled and at least 60% say they will vote for Obama. In addition, cell-phone users (mostly young Obama supporters) have also not been polled. Obama could very well carry PA — but only if the votes are fairly counted. View the full set of national and PA polls at Real Clear Politics.
...

[muryan]

2. As much as I'd like to see Obama win PA

I'm not holding my breath. However the chances of him winning 50% of remaining pledged and 30% of remaining superdelegates are pretty damn high.

[stillcool]

5. I can't go there either..

seems like too much of a stacked deck in PA. I'm still stuck on Hillary winning by 20+ to insure her 'viability'.

[muryan]

12. I think she'll be lucky to pull out numbers similar to Ohio

Ohio which I'm still bitter about. Turnout sucked because of the weather :(

[tiptoe]

15. Pollster list of "Undecideds" in PA + charts

http://www.pollster.com/08-PA-Dem-Pres-Primary.php

[Sulawesi]

3. I suport Obama but also remember Zogby before CA...

[tiptoe]

14. Zogby on California:

"About California: Some of you may have noticed our pre-election polling differed from the actual results. It appears that we underestimated Hispanic turnout and overestimated the importance of younger Hispanic voters. We also overestimated turnout among African-American voters. Those of you who have been following our work know that we have gotten 13 out of 17 races right this year, and so many others over the years. This does happen."

http://www.zogby.com/search/ReadNews.dbm?ID=1447

[RBInMaine]

6. If he holds her to within single digits then it knocks the wind out of her sails BIGTIME !

[Gore1FL]

11. she has to win PA by 50%

to have the remotest of chances.

she isn't going to take PA by 75%-25%

[guruoo]

8. If you believed this you wouldn't still be swiftboating Hillary...

oh that's right. You still haven't quite finished the job Gingrich
Starr, and Rove began.

Nevermind.

[tiptoe]

28. Hillary Clinton On Southern Working Class Whites In 1995: "Screw 'Em"

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2008/04/16/hillary-clinton-on-workin_n_97017.html

During the past week, Sen. Hillary Clinton has presented herself as a working class populist, the politician in touch with small town sentiments, compared to the elitism of her opponent, Sen. Barack Obama.

But a telling anecdote from her husband's administration shows Hillary Clinton's attitudes about the "lunch-bucket Democrats" are not exactly pristine.

In January 1995, as the Clintons were licking their wounds from the 1994 congressional elections, a debate emerged at a retreat at Camp David. Should the administration make overtures to working class white southerners who had all but forsaken the Democratic Party? The then-first lady took a less than inclusive approach.

"Screw 'em," she told her husband. "You don't owe them a thing, Bill. They're doing nothing for you; you don't have to do anything for them."

The statement -- which author Benjamin Barber witnessed and wrote about in his book, "The Truth of Power: Intellectual Affairs in the Clinton White House" -- was prompted by another speaker raising the difficulties of reaching "Reagan Democrats." It stands in stark contrast to the attitude the New York Democrat has recently taken on the campaign trail, in which she has presented herself as the one candidate who understands the working-class needs.
...

[guruoo]

30. 13 years ago.

See? What did I tell you?

[tiptoe]

31. And what makes you think she's changed? "Screw 'em" is pretty harsh/definitive and expressed in

a self-interested context. nt

[guruoo]

34. She wasn't refering to progressive southerners, tiptoe.

Keep in mind that although I've I've supported Hillary, I've also
defended Obama from this same kind of unwarranted attack.
Search my posts if you don't believe me.

Fair is fair, and to say the least, you guys have not been fair to Hillary.

[Gore1FL]

10. She has been singing since WI

[tiptoe]

13. Undecideds in PA Regions -- one pollster's 3 week results:

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_mesg&forum=132&topic_id=5533940&mesg_id=5533940

[Bucky]

16. The chart shows remarkably consistant results. Obama at 49-52% and Clinton at 40-46%

All within a fairly tightly policed margin of error of 50.5% to 43%. I can't imagine anything shaking those numbers unless, y'know, Obama started flipping people off in the middle of his speeches or something.

[tiptoe]

18. Obama + Rooney + Franco Harris + Sen. Casey tonight at Heinz field tailgater.

This weekend's whistlestops will be a whirlwind of "Undecided" conversions for Obama.

[tiptoe]

20. Newsweek Poll: "Obama pulling away"...leads Clinton by nearly 20 points, or 54 --35 %, among Dems

http://www.newsweek.com/id/132721/page/1

Despite her campaign's relentless attacks on Barack Obama's qualifications and electability, Hillary Clinton has lost a lot of ground with Democratic voters nationwide going into Tuesday's critical primary in Pennsylvania, a new NEWSWEEK poll shows.

The survey of 1,209 registered voters found that Obama now leads Clinton by nearly 20 points, or 54 percent to 35 percent, among registered Democrats and those who lean Democratic nationwide. The previous Newsweek poll, conducted in March after Clinton's big primary wins in Ohio and Texas, showed the two Democrats locked in a statistical tie (45 percent for Obama to 44 percent for Clinton). The new poll puts Obama ahead among women as well as men, and voters aged 60 and older as well as younger voters. (For the complete poll data, click here).

One of the more devastating results for Clinton was that a majority of all registered voters now see her as dishonest and untrustworthy. According to the poll, just four in 10 (41 percent) registered voters view the New York senator as honest and trustworthy, while 51 percent think the opposite. This compares with solid majorities of voters who see Obama and McCain as honest and trustworthy (both polled 61 percent).
...

[tiptoe]

21. Obama Regional Polling for PA Whistle-Stop Cities scheduled for Tomorrow

11:30 a.m. -- Wynnewood Whistle Stop     610    Southeast PA

 2:00 p.m. -- Paoli Whistle Stop         610    Southeast PA

 3:45 p.m. -- Downingtown Whistle Stop   610    Southeast PA

 6:00 p.m. -- Lancaster Whistle Stop     717    South Central PA   

 8:45 p.m. -- Harrisburg Rally           717    South Central PA      

                                                 April 16 / April 9 / April 2

Trend				+ Obama      + Obama	  + Obama     + Clinton	    + Clinton
         
             Pennsylvania       Northeast    Southeast   SouthCentral  SouthWest    WestCentral
Weight (Avg)     100               9 %          44%         10%          28%           9 %    
  
Clinton        42/46/43         57/64/62     33/35/37     48/60/53     41/43/35     52/50/45
Obama          45/43/45         28/30/26     53/53/53     39/31/30     46/42/50     37/37/39
Undecided      13/11/13         15/ 6/11     14/12/10     13/ 9/18     12/15/15     11/13/16
  
  
  
Northeast PA     defined as area codes 570 
    Scranton, Williamsport
Southeast PA     defined as area codes 215, 267, 484, 610 
    Philadelphia 
South Central PA defined as area codes 717 
    Harrisburg, Lancaster, York
Southwest PA     defined as area codes 412, 724 
    Pittsburgh, Bethel Park, Monroeville, New Castle
West Central PA  defined as area codes 814 
    State College, Erie, Altoona

(major cities)

source: Obama '08 - On Track for Change, Saturday, April 19
Public Policy Polling
April 16, April 9 / April 2

[ORDem]

22. Forget about the SDs, it's the PD count that's really important

Obama needs just 211 more pledged delegates to capture the majority of PDs. Once that's done, the SDs will follow suit. May 20th that should be accomplished. :dem:

[jazzjunkysue]

23. Needs more cowbell:

[tiptoe]

25. and more recs !

Edwards was/is my first preference.

[meow mix]

24. K&R

zero votes!
:grr:

[tiptoe]

26. a heads up

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_mesg&forum=203&topic_id=499885&mesg_id=499889

[tiptoe]

36. and a report from the PA front lines

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_mesg&forum=203&topic_id=500731&mesg_id=500821

[Raine]

27. another K & R

:-)

[tiptoe]

29. another JE to BO ....thanks! nt

[Eurobabe]

32. Obama by a squeaker. n/t

[taterguy]

33. Hillary is not fat

And shame on you for implying that