Dean wants a decision from superdelegates "Now"

[kpete]

Dean wants a decision from superdelegates "Now"
by heyhellowhatsnew
Thu Apr 17, 2008 at 03:57:31 PM PDT
*Updated below*

I've said all along that the longer this primary went on, the better McCain's chances would be in November. Finally, Howard Dean gets the message:

An increasingly firm Howard Dean told CNN again Thursday that he needs superdelegates to say who they’re for – and "I need them to say who they’re for starting now."

"We cannot give up two or three months of active campaigning and healing time," the Democratic National Committee Chairman told CNN’s Wolf Blitzer. "We’ve got to know who our nominee is."

more at:
http://www.dailykos.com/storyonly/2008/4/17/18542/0999/445/497903
http://politicalticker.blogs.cnn.com/2008/04/17/dean-i-need-a-decision-now/

[DemBones DemBones]

1. So the votes of the rest of the country don't count, Howie?

He's such a petty tyrant. He and Brazile are destroying the party in their desparate attempt to get Obama the nomination.

[Spider Jerusalem]

3. The votes of the rest of the country don't count. That's right. They can't change the outcome.

We had a nominee LONG before this point in the process in 2004. And in 2000. Were you bitching like this then?

[depakid]

8. Do know anything about history?

Clue one: nominees haven't always been chosen by, say February.

[Spider Jerusalem]

11. Know anything about math?

Helpful hint: Hillary can't catch up in delegates or popular vote.

[depakid]

15. I prefer the term "maths"

but I guess that's because I'm pretentious and/or have a bit more respect for folks I work with who do know something more than I do about these sorts of things.....

[Spider Jerusalem]

16. Point of difference between British vs American usage, and you've managed to say nothing at all.

You've certainly not said anything to contradict my point.

[depakid]

22. 2025

Nothing else means anything in politics.

You probably don't remember a cool poster from 2004. His nom de guerre was "truth is all" and he used a lot of interesting statistical models to show how Kerry's election was inevitable.

Rumor had it (I don't know) that he was a university prof- or perhaps a grad student. They were impressive models, but unfortunately suffered from (IMO) GIGO problems, as well as other troubles with practical application to the exigencies of human endeavors like politics.

[Spider Jerusalem]

30. Not quite true.

Perception means quite a bit in politics. The perception, should Clinton secure the nomination despite deficits in delegate and popular vote totals, will be that she stole it; this would have adverse consequences for the Democratic Party's electoral chances. Elections don't take place in a vacuum; Clinton's nomination, given her high negative ratings and low ratings for trustworthiness, along with the aforementioned deficits, makes little political sense; taking all factors into consideration, there's a possibility that she may be nominated, but a realistic assessment of the probability that that will happen would be something on the order of ≤10%.

[depakid]

37. Probabilities are just that

and yeah, perceptions mean a LOT -yet collectively, they're pretty whimsical and capricious deals.

Fads are good examples- they take off- and while some have staying power, others come crashing down.

Some of the cool models in systems science attempt to explain that mathematically- graph theory, for instance (that some have read about in Malcolm Gladwell's popular book: The Tipping Point).

I'm not making an argument for Hillary's success in a general election. Far from it (most people I know IRL would be wary of making predictions in either of several ways this far out- though I would add that I never play cards for money with certain people).

And truth be told, my guess (for what it's worth) is that Obama has the least risk with respect to state and local candidates and issues on the West Coast, which I also have to be honest and say, I care about most in the states.

Despite the fact that I didn't grow up here.

[Gore1FL]

42. It's beyond probability at this point

She simply will not get the nomination. I'd bet my car on it.

[Johnny__Motown]

32. I think the point is that with Obama's Pledged + Supers + More Supers he can hit 2025 before June 3

Yes 2025 is the target. Let's just get him there sooner rather than later so this crap dies down and we can all focus on the GE


CNN has 888 total delegates left out there (pledged and super total)

Obama needs 381 (according to CNN's numbers)


http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2008/primaries/results/scorecard/



So let's just get him those 381 as soon as possible and we can all get on with our lives.

[DemVet]

47. The problem is that the superdelegates don't vote until August.

Anything until them is just mere speculation.

[On the Road]

49. I Just Have to Throw in, Since You Were Not Part of Those Threads,

That "TruthisAll" generated a lot more heat than light (to put it kindly). It is obvious he did not understand how statistics is done, at least in the social sciences. His detailed posts were a mix of tantalizing figures and utter BS. It is a good thing his arguments never went mainstream.

[DemVet]

46. And Obama won't capture the required number of delegates to secure the Nomination.

How's that math for you?

[Spider Jerusalem]

48. Except that he will.

Delegate lead. Popular vote lead. Most states won. He's going to be the nominee. There's no way in hell Hillary, who is viewed as an untrustworthy liar, who has amazingly high negatives, who has LOST in every measure, is going to be nominated. It is not going to happen. So the math is just fine for me, thanks. I expect the superdelegates are going to come out for Obama in increasing numbers after PA.

[depakid]

5. Please

I want to see the final states have their say as much as anyone, but don't go off with loaded language. I respect your posts too much.

I don't agree with the former President about a whole lot of things- but he was right when he said words to the effect of "just chill."

[Bonobo]

7. Hil wanted it over on Super Tuesday. That's why your argument is so fucking dumb.

[Johnny__Motown]

Gotta post my favorite 8 second clip for this one. HRC and GS, great day for this one

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=saBU6ux0hsQ

[cali]

17. that's ho-ho, not howie.

and he didn't say that the votes of the remaining contests don't count. What's your objection to SDs endorsing? In case you didn't know, most of them have.

[kwenu]

33. I'm sorry. I understand he is asking for the SD's to commit. He is NOT canceling the primaries.

Why are you afraid that the SD's won't vote for Hillary? If she's as great as Hillary supporters claim this should be a landslide for her.

[AZBlue]

44. Still clinging to that false, tired, worn-out, lame excuse?

Here's a new line for you: Welcome to My Ignore List!
Troll be gone! *poof*

[Spider Jerusalem]

2. They'll still probably wait until after PA votes.

When Obama comes within single digits, where Clinton needed a 20-point victory to maintain viability...expect the trickle of SD's for Obama to become a flood.

[babylonsister]

4. I hope they're listening. nt

[Cha]

10. I'm surprised Dean is doing this now..

'cause I thought it just was "going to take its course"!

I hope it gets settled soon.

[babylonsister]

12. Maybe he's getting a bit anxious like the rest of us. nt

[Cha]

28. And, maybe he's getting some

strong requests from other leaders in our Party?

[MoJoWorkin]

34. Maybe he saw the travesty last nite and, like the rest of us, "can't stands no more"

[bigwillq]

6. I'm for letting people vote.

This is the process that's on the books..until someone reaches the needed delegates the race continues. If no one reaches the needed delegates it goes to the convention where the supers decide it.


I wish we could do away with the supers and let the popular vote decide the nominee but that's what the rules in place are.

Wait for people to vote and if it has to go to the convention, so be it. Those are the rules right now. I totally believe the rules need to be changed though but there's no way you can do that at this point.

[BklynChick]

9. good. most primaries never get to this point. we need a finish to this mess and get on to the

important work of beating the republicans.

[bhikkhu]

13. Good to know the DNC head is thinking about the GE!

I suppose he will get his flood of criticism, but that was coming sooner or later anyway, and there is a great deal of work to be done.
Next week should be a good one!

[K Gardner]

14. Perhaps Dean threw a shoe at the TV last night also. Bout damned time.

[Coexist]

20. did you see that on KO?

[K Gardner]

24. Yes, LOL !

[Coexist]

26. off topic - Obama picks up another delegate:

http://www.dailykos.com/story/2008/4/17/20252/2491/370/497954

From: Jeffrey [email protected]
Subject: Revised Pledged Delegate Count -- It's Moved Up to 171 Delegates
To:
Date: Thursday, April 17, 2008, 7:28 PM

It's official. Happy to announce that late-counted provisional and absentee ballots have won one additional delegate for Barack in the Cincinnati area. That means Ohio was only a seven delegate loss and our national lead in pledged delegates has moved up to 171 delegates.

[K Gardner]

27. Strange.. it doesn't seem MSM keeps up with this as well as you and others do ! Thank you for the

update !! 171 !!!

[Tatiana]

36. 50,000 shoes coast to coast collectively thrown at the tee vee. LOL n/t

[Cha]

29. See what? That's too beautiful..the

Obama Sunset/Sunrise in your sig!

[Coexist]

31. thanks- I just found it here:

http://www.dailykos.com/story/2008/4/17/84134/4265/852/497480

on the other point - on KO he had a guest who said, "that thump you heard was the sound of thousands of shoes hitting TVs at during the debate" or something equally snarky.

[Cha]

40. Thank you, FLDem...

Katrina vanden Heuvel said she almost or did throw her Subway sandwich at the tv. The night before the Debate a DUer said they better not come up with right wing talking points or she would shoot her tv..I said, "have your paint gun ready".

Would you mind if I used that Obama by sea graphic once in awhile? B-)

[Coexist]

45. I asked permission from the creator and he/she said, "fine"

so I think its okay

[madfloridian]

18. Larry Johnson's No Quarter is on the attack toward Dean....big time.

I don't want to link there, but my God what ugliness is there.

Hell, give Hillary FL and MI and whatever the hell she demands and maybe she and Armando and Larry Johnson and all the others will just hush.

Let her have what she wants.

[Coexist]

19. once its settled, they will seat MI 50/50 and FL as is.

[madfloridian]

21. Go there and read the vitriol. It is horrible.

They don't go after Republicans that way.

Just let her way her way and shut her up. I feel sick.

[Coexist]

23. no way - who goes there anymore

they are their own little world - leave them at it so they don't bother the rest of us.

[Ichingcarpenter]

25. I put this up on the LBNs a hour and a half ago..........

Some people take off GDP on their greatest page thread

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=102x3272783

[madrchsod]

35. dean may know that pa is going to be very close

and north carolina is going to be a blow out. if she does`t win pa by landslide it`s over....

[apocalypsehow]

38. I hadn't heard this till now - big hearty K & R.

:thumbsup:

[cooolandrew]

39. WTG DEAN. Time for business.

[jackson_dem]

41. Dean: I endorse Obama but don't want to say it openly

[AX10]

43. Reminds me yet again why I am an independent.

The Democratic party should not count on my vote for every election from now on.