Clinton Rates Slim Edge Over Obama in PA District Delegate Race

[Perky]

http://www.cqpolitics.com/wmspage.cfm?docID=news-000002703375&cpage=1

Really Interesting article for Delegate wonks

The key to the Delegate math is whether newly registered voteres turn out in large numbers for Obama in the Philly suburbs. He pruportedly registereed abou 200,000 statewide. If they turrnout for him in record numbers and the overall turn out is 2,000,000 that amount yo about 10% of the pie.

If he can score a couple of extra District level delegates there and hold Clinton to a 5% margin in the statewide vote. This could end up nearly tied in the delgate count.

'AS is always the case. Turnout is king, but realy it is where the turnout is.


April 15, 2008 – 12:13 a.m.
Clinton Rates Slim Edge Over Obama in PA District Delegate Race

By Greg Giroux and Jonathan Allen, CQ Staff
Is Barack Obama trailing Hillary Rodham Clinton in Pennsylvania by double digit percentages? Or has he closed the gap to single digits, as recent polls suggest? Could he even win the April 22 primary — a shocking upset that probably would force Clinton to the sidelines? These are among the questions that have the hearts of the punditocracy atwitter in the run-up to the first Democratic presidential balloting in six weeks.

We at CQ Politics are pondering those too. But we look ahead to next week’s vote in Pennsylvania a bit differently: How many delegates might each candidate win in Pennsylvania, which is the most populous of the states and territories that have yet to vote?

That answer will be mainly determined not by the sum of the votes Clinton and Obama win in Pennsylvania, but rather by the state’s parts. Pennsylvania will send 187 Democratic delegates to the party’s national convention in Denver this August, and most of them — 103 to be exact — will be allocated according to the votes the candidates receive in each of the state’s 19 congressional districts.

And a CQ Politics analysis of the political circumstances in Pennsylvania’s congressional districts, detailed below, projects an edge to Clinton — but by just 53 district-level delegates to 50 for Obama under the Democratic Party’s proportional distribution rules.

These numbers suggest that Clinton, even with a victory in Pennsylvania, would make only a small incremental gain against Obama’s overall lead in the delegate race.

Of the state’s remaining 84 slots, only 55 pledged delegates will be distributed based on the statewide popular vote, with the state’s remaining 29 seats going to unpledged “superdelegates.”

[JimGinPA]

1. I've Been Saying That For Weeks...

She'll get a minimal delegate pickup, if any, in PA.

[Coexist]

4. if she doesn't win by 20 points, she's toast

she'll need to win the rest of the states by 28 point margins just to tie.

[GarbagemanLB]

2. which will then be negated by NC.

[Texas Hill Country]

3. that assumes EVERYONE he registered votes for him which is HIGHLY unlikely

[Perky]

5. I agree and I was actually factoring that in

There is little doubt that they targeted commu nities where there was a high pwobablulity that a) they would actuallly vote and b0 they would vote for Obama.

I would suspect that that translates in to something like 110-120,000.