The latest Cleveland PD poll for Bush v Kerry

[dsc]

http://www.cleveland.com/election/agate.ssf?/election/pdpoll.html

The overall break down is Bush 47, Kerry 41, Nader 3, Undecided 9. The MOE is 2.6% which means that Bush is statistically ahead by at least 0.8%. But the news isn't all bad for us. Bush isn't at 50% and the undecideds are likely to break for Kerry.

The favorable/unfavorable/neutral is:

Bush 48, 35, 17
Kerry 33, 32, 35
Nader 11, 37, 51

The top three reasons Bush voters give for voting for him are

53% like his charcter and integrity
28% agree with his conduct of the war on terror
18% Don't trust Democrats

The top three reasons Kerry voters vote for him are

62% Hate Bush
21% Like Kerry's issues and policies
16% Like his character and integrity

Among African Americans the split is 15 to 73 to 4in favor of Kerry. In contrast there are a few wards on the east side of Cleveland and in East Cleveland (both nearly all African American) in which Bush got 0 votes in 2000.

Among Latino Americans the split is 46 to 36 to 9 in favor of Bush.

On the plus side the economy trumps the war on terror as an issue 32 to 15.

end of synopsis

I hate to make this an I told you so post but I am entitled here. Virtually every criticism I had of the Kerry campaign in Ohio is borne out here. He hasn't sold a positive image of himself, he is doing relatively poorly among minorities, and he isn't exiting people to vote for him. Either all of Ohio is made up of bitter Dean supporters which we know isn't true or maybe, just maybe, I was telling you truth as I saw it and maybe, just maybe, I was right. Kerry can turn this around. The economy here sucks and will still suck on election day. 35% of the people still are neutral toward him. But the time for denial is over. If this is the Florida of 2004 it is time for Kerry to step it up here.

[eaprez]

1. He Has Plenty of Time..

....to do that after the convention. That's the "official" start of the campaign.

[dsc]

2. even he doesn't think that

as he is starting to do some stuff here now. He needs to have some of this done soon as in before the convention.

[eaprez]

3. Nope...

...he needs to use most of his $ AFTER the convention.

[dsc]

4. alot of this has nothing to do with dollars

and by the way he is limited after the convention to spending 75 million, he has about that much on hand now.

[qazplm]

5. no offense

but this is one poll.

You could have looked at the previous poll just days earlier where Kerry has a strong lead (two polls in fact in you include Zogby), and made the opposite argument.

Since I find it highly unlikely that the public mood in Ohio could have switched by 10 plus points in about a week, I suspect that either the previous polls or this poll is are off.

Since we probably wont know til the next poll one way or the other, I might submit that your "I told you so" is a little premature.

[dsc]

9. The Zogby poll isn't scientific

Link the other poll and I will take a look at it.

[eaprez]

7. $

I think you are wrong. The limitations are in raising money after accepting the nomination - which is why he wanted initially to delay accepting it - so he could continue to raise money.

[dsc]

8. It is both in spending and in raising

The 75 million after the nomination is government money and is all he can spend during those months. Thus any money he has now and doesn't spend prior to the July convention can't be spent at all.

[ayeshahaqqiqa]

6. We need to tell the truth

about Bush's character and integrity. Al Gore did a great job in his speech, and I hope he makes more that highlight the moral bankruptcy of Bush and his administration.

[JI7]

10. there was another poll out with Kerry ahead

not that it matters much at this point. what matters is whether one is ahead close to election time. one should remember and learn from the primaries, kerry was behind for a long time. and dean was seen as the sure winner. but he won when it mattered.

[salonghorn70]

11. The Answer Is Obvious

The poll that favors our guy is right. The poll that favors their guy is wrong.:)

[JI7]

12. and the poll that matters

is the one on election day in november. it doesn't matter whether one is ahead 5-6 months before election day if you lose on election day.

[Padraig18]

13. "...the economy trumps the war on terror as an issue 32 to 15...."

And so will it in November, IMO.

[lancdem]

14. Bush gets 15 percent of the black vote in Ohio?

I have a very hard time believing that. Nationally, he's getting well under 10 percent of the African-American vote.

[GOPBasher]

15. Ohio is statistically tied. Some polls have Kerry ahead.

Don't worry about it, yet. Although, the Latino vote scared me. Kerry should be well ahead with them.

[dsc]

16. No kidding

that and the African American totals scare the bejeezus out of me.

[in_cog_ni_to]

17. 53% think the chimp has "character and INTEGRITY?????"

No f****** way! People are so ignorant.

[dsc]

18. You misuderstand that

53% of Bush's voters are voting for him due to thinking he has character and integrity. That would be .47 * 53% which is 24.91% of the sample.