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It's Early but you gotta love this Zogby Electoral State Breakdown

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RamboLiberal Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon May-24-04 11:09 PM
Original message
It's Early but you gotta love this Zogby Electoral State Breakdown
Edited on Mon May-24-04 11:10 PM by rmpalmer


For those keeping score, those results would give us a 320-218 Kerry victory.

Zogby Poll. 5/18-23. MoE depends on state, but ranges between 3% and 4.6%. No trend lines.

Update: This polling is being done over the Internet. Hence it should be easily open to manipulation. Take with a GIANT grain of salt. I'll try to get followup with Zogby and determine what safeguards they have in place.

http://www.dailykos.com/
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NMDemDist2 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon May-24-04 11:10 PM
Response to Original message
1. kick, this one is too good to let sink hehehehehe eom
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nadinbrzezinski Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon May-24-04 11:10 PM
Response to Original message
2. If the elections are clean
we will see a bloody landslide

:-)

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On the Road Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon May-24-04 11:19 PM
Response to Original message
3. Looks Like Kerry's Hitting the Trifecta
OH - PA - FL

Two is a win. Three is a landslide.
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coloradodem2005 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon May-24-04 11:26 PM
Response to Original message
4. Too bad we loose Iowa.
What would make it go from blue to red? Especially with a senator like Tom Harkin there.
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fujiyama Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue May-25-04 12:02 AM
Response to Reply #4
10. It does seem strange
Edited on Tue May-25-04 12:04 AM by fujiyama
I saw Kerry up by two in one poll a while back.

I really don't think Bush is up by 6 in that state...I'd say it's a toss up at worst.

Also isn't IA supposed to be a pretty anti war state? Or maybe that was just liberals and dems in that state.
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9119495 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue May-25-04 07:59 AM
Response to Reply #4
15. Kerry WILL WIN IOWA
I live here and even though Bush or his family members have been here 4 times this month, Kerry has strong committed swupport from the caucuses. I think Bush is coming here so early to see how the polls reflect his visit so he can decide whether to spend here later or not. Gore ran a weak campaign here and still won.

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IA_Seth Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue May-25-04 10:06 PM
Response to Reply #4
33. Iowa
Geez.

They must have conducted the poll while all of us Dems were out of our homes working on getting out the vote!?

Kerry will win Iowa by a healthy margin, and that is not just wishful thinking!
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AnnitaR Donating Member (958 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon May-24-04 11:37 PM
Response to Original message
5. I hate that I live in the land of the Pukes!
Pisses me off seeing TN red!

At least I'm pissing a lot of them off riding around with my Kerry O4, my "Send Bush to Iraq, Bring the troops home" and my "Bush is a Weapon of Mass Deception" bumperstickers! Just put them on Saturday and have already gotten rude gestures out the window and the bright lights. LOL!
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NMDemDist2 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon May-24-04 11:39 PM
Response to Reply #5
7. Kerry ON!!! good for you, and you may make someone's day
there thinking they were the only one
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Kathleen04 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue May-25-04 12:13 AM
Response to Reply #5
13. At least it's so close..
TN wants to turn blue! :)

Keep promotin' Kerry. :thumbsup:

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Andromeda Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed May-26-04 03:47 AM
Response to Reply #5
36. Be careful -- 'kay?
sometimes those jerks don't stop at rude gestures and blinking lights. ;-)
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prodigal_green Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed May-26-04 10:41 AM
Response to Reply #5
39. TN Dems just need to hold their breath
until the state turns blue.

Actually, no, you should work hard to move Ms. Marge Innovera over to our side.

Buck up, it'll happen.
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JI7 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon May-24-04 11:38 PM
Response to Original message
6. iowa, west virginia, and arkansas is something we need to fight hard for
i can't wait until clinton gets out there.
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progdonkey Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon May-24-04 11:41 PM
Response to Reply #6
9. Arkansas
Can't wait for Clinton AND Clark to get there. We'll take it back.

I'm pretty surprised Missouri's on there; that bodes well for us.
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still_one Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon May-24-04 11:39 PM
Response to Original message
8. That's strange
Zogby's battle ground state poll was supposed to be released tomorrow. How did they get it a day early?
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whirlygigspin Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue May-25-04 12:06 AM
Response to Reply #8
11. good grief
Edited on Tue May-25-04 12:08 AM by whirlygigspin
TN,WV,MO, are all within the margin of error,cool.
Kerry needs to work them hard, and what's up with AK? work it Bill!

Dare I dream? Hoping the Repubs get totally slaughtered in the upcoming election.

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ArkDem Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue May-25-04 08:44 AM
Response to Reply #11
19. >what's up with AK? work it Bill!<
I don't think Bill gets a good reception in Alaska.
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lancdem Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue May-25-04 01:57 PM
Response to Reply #19
24. LOL
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whirlygigspin Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu May-27-04 02:18 AM
Response to Reply #19
45. oops!
Sorry, I have never been to east Texas either.ahum.
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surfermaw Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue May-25-04 08:41 PM
Response to Reply #8
32. I don't know but I was polled by Zogby, don't know if it was this poll,
One day last week, and my husband on the Mason Dixon I think it is called the Mason Dixon
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Kathleen04 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue May-25-04 12:10 AM
Response to Original message
12. Ooo, WV and TN are w/in the margin of error
I wouldn't have expected it to be so close in TN and further behind in IA.

But, all in all, lookin' good. :)
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AnnitaR Donating Member (958 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue May-25-04 12:31 AM
Response to Reply #12
14. I am shocked that TN is within the margin of error.
Still hate it showing red on everything but that this poll has it within the margin of error is quite amazing! This should really cause the Pukes alarm. If TN is this close Shrub is in deep shit.

Bush will probably still win TN but if it is very close here I will consider it a victory for us Dems here. We face huge uphill battle here and if we keep it close we will have done our job I think. I hope that Kerry is smart with his VP pick because that could really help us out here.
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rhino47 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue May-25-04 01:56 PM
Response to Reply #12
23. I do not think WV will go red. nt
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Adenoid_Hynkel Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue May-25-04 05:49 PM
Response to Reply #23
29. it will.
Edited on Tue May-25-04 05:50 PM by ann_coulter_is_a_man
i live here. we're always 10 years behind the rest of the country. any liberal sweep will tak at least 5 years to get here. the age of gingrich is just dawning here this year with the GOP expected to take bpoth houses of the legislature for the first time in over 70 years.

the fact that we have an anti-choice, anti-union, pro-forcing schools to post the commandments republican running a the democrat non=minee for governor doesn't exactly fire up the base, either
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fujiyama Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue May-25-04 10:53 PM
Response to Reply #23
34. It's hard to say
Edited on Tue May-25-04 10:54 PM by fujiyama
Inspite of the disaster in Iraq and the state of the economy in that state (I heard it lost many jobs), it seems as though Bush is pretty popular there. Up till now I have not seen any polls with Kerry ahead, though there were some showing it within only two or three points.

It's kinda strange because Dukakis won that state, but it seems as though it's been treading republican after Clinton's second term (my guess is the Monica thing may have cost Gore some votes in that state as well as guns).

It probably is more "southern" in its culture -- in that guns, God, and gays are the issues holding em back from voting democratic (atleast for president).

Either way, it is definetely a swing state and I think Kerry has a chance there. It'll take some work though.
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rhino47 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed May-26-04 09:50 AM
Response to Reply #34
38. Guns and what wv perceived as anti-coal environmental stand
Cost Gore wv.I think wv is allot more progressive.At least north western.I live right next door.I do find wv the backward state as was
previously implied.
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davidinalameda Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed May-26-04 01:23 PM
Response to Reply #12
40. WV will go repuke
:scared:

the governor's race will keep home some liberals and moderates since the two candidates are virtually the same

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dusty64 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue May-25-04 08:11 AM
Response to Original message
16. Iowa. WTF is
up with that, its gone Democrat at least the last three election cycles. Why would it possibly change now?
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ArkDem Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue May-25-04 08:42 AM
Response to Original message
17. Woo Hoo!
Once Kerry gets to the debates and shows the country how he can think on his feet, speak the English language and combines it with his strong stands on the issues it will truly be a landslide!!!
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LonelyLRLiberal Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed May-26-04 08:53 PM
Response to Reply #17
41. Can't wait for the debates - hope Arkies are smart enough
to see through Bush's "good-ole-boy" routine and vote for someone actually capable of independent thought. See you at the victory party.
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mndemocrat_29 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue May-25-04 08:44 AM
Response to Original message
18. Now if we can just get those other four votes in Kerry's column
We'll likely have enough coattails to bring in the House and Senate with the White House.
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WI_DEM Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue May-25-04 12:26 PM
Response to Original message
20. the only bit of bad news is Iowa
where Bush is up by five, but otherwise Kerry is even in striking distance in Tenneessee and Arkansas.
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VOX Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue May-25-04 01:05 PM
Response to Original message
21. This is looking good.
It's a starting poing, that's for sure.

:kick:
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JI7 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue May-25-04 01:11 PM
Response to Original message
22. for the man from "taxachusettes"
not doing too bad in some of the south. and this is even without the addition of a southern running mate. i wonder how it will be if/when he adds one.
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napi21 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue May-25-04 02:06 PM
Response to Original message
25. I took this poll. I can tell you they do have something in place
to prevent me from taking it twice. I do not know if you can sign on from 10 different computers using 10 different names and get away with it, but realiztically, just how many people in how many states would it take to be able to distort these results?

Zoggby's been around for a long time. I would suspect they've incorporated a lot of controls. They get paid a LOT of $ to produce credible results.
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yellowcanine Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue May-25-04 03:30 PM
Response to Original message
26. Individual state numbers are volatile - can't see Kerry losing Iowa
but I like how close West Virginia and Tennessee ate.
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sampsonblk Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue May-25-04 04:17 PM
Response to Original message
27. Kick - nt
kick
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GOPBasher Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue May-25-04 05:31 PM
Response to Original message
28. Giving us Pennsylvania, Ohio and Florida. If that holds up,
Bush does not stand a chance. This looks good right now. :)
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Lefty Pragmatist Donating Member (430 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue May-25-04 06:47 PM
Response to Original message
30. NH
It's nice to see the local boy effect should give us NH. It's going to be so close that every little bit helps.

When was the last time NH went to a losing Dem?
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DaveSZ Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue May-25-04 06:54 PM
Response to Reply #30
31. NH:
If Kerry maintains his stance against the Patriot Act, he can win NH.

There are many libertarians there.
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Andromeda Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed May-26-04 03:43 AM
Response to Original message
35. Kick!
:kick:
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Kiliki Donating Member (95 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed May-26-04 04:44 AM
Response to Original message
37. Damn, it looks like FLA is going to be close again....
Bushes newfound efforts to wage war on Cuba and apease the Jewish vote in Palm Beach with his manipulations in the Israel/Palestinian conflict might actually be influencing some votes. Kerry needs to seal the FLA deal.

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Lefty Pragmatist Donating Member (430 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed May-26-04 09:02 PM
Response to Reply #37
43. Florida Jewish vote
Is not particularly rabid pro-Likud. It's a aged/aging Jewish population that tends to have strong Dem ties and a degree of sympathy for a two state/peaceful solution.

The Cubans, OTOH, love Dubya and the Castro-baiting. They're also highly entrepenurial/free market -- in short, we'll do poorly with them.

To win Florida, we need NE transplants, blacks, and worried familieis of servicemen. The services went to Bush over Gore by a huge margin -- Kerry will narrow it.
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Alerter_ Donating Member (898 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed May-26-04 09:00 PM
Response to Original message
42. West Virginia isn't going to vote for Bush
I doubt that.
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Endangered Specie Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed May-26-04 09:25 PM
Response to Original message
44. All Kerry needs to remind Nevada voters of to win the state:
Yucca Mountain, period, paragraph.
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