The McCain trap

[ithinkmyliverhurts]

Please note: the following is not a conspiracy narrative. It is based on a lot of conjecture but also on my seeing a number of faxes from various repub. groups--some who have very good info., others who have crappy info.

First, many people here at DU have been predicting that Cheney will fall from the ticket. I agree with this. He's too much of a drain. Timing will be everything. An article in "The Hill" makes the point again: http://www.hillnews.com/eisele/051904.aspx

The author puts a happy face on Cheney's departure but the end is the same.

Here's what I know for sure (as I have seen drafts of the various emails): One of the main sources for the McCain for Kerry VP leak is a repub. operative, who also happens to work for a certain energy resource lobbying group (god, the "legal" in-bededness in Washington is astounding). This main source for the leak also happens to be dear friends with Rove (they either went to high school or college together). They put the McCain for Kerry VP out there knowing full well that McCain would refuse. They also hoped McCain would draw sharp contrasts between himself and the Democratic party. He didn't do this. Everyone wants McCain because he plays well in the public; most importantly, however, he plays REALLY well in the media (how does a politician get away with use the word "gooks"?????). Rove et al hoped McCain would be a partisan and kick Kerry a few times. But McCain didn't.

There is a ton, a TON, of work being done right now feeling McCain out as VP for Bush. Bush can't ask him if there is any chance McCain would turn him down. That would look really bad. But the rumor that Kerry would "redefine" the VP role for McCain, as a sort of co-President, was actually a projection of Rove's wooing process from the Bush camp. I don't know, but I imagine McCain knows all of this is going on (if I know, McCain's people HAVE to know).

Why would Bush want McCain? Uh, simply to hold onto political power. That's the only thing these people know and practice. With McCain on the ticket, Bush has sold himself as a uniter and not a divider, a reformer, and someone who wants to return to fiscal responsibility. Remember, this is an administration that takes credit for the programs it attempted to cut (see front page of NY Times today).

Here's the fun part: if Bush openly offers the spot to McCain and McCain declines, then McCain finally got to do to Bush what he's secretly desired the whole time. McCain's rejection of Bush's offer would spell the end of Bush.

[mrgorth]

1. If you're right

this is an enormous problem. I know a lot of people, not wing nuts, that would vote for a Bush/'Cain ticket because of John McCain.

[ithinkmyliverhurts]

3. McCain has huge appeal to the population of the US

His media narrative is pure gold. If it's Bush McCain, the election is over. How does Kerry debate the ideas of a VP candidate who he said would make a good Defense Secretary?

If the dems. stepped into this one, I will be pissed. I hope we didn't get played. I don't think we did. I think McCain likes his status as "always-the-wooed."

[union_maid]

2. Could be a huge problem, if true

I've noticed that in denying the rumors about Kerry, McCain has actually said good things about * lately. I those are the most disingenuous things he's ever said, probably.

[ewagner]

6. Agreed

The amount of media coverage McCain is getting makes me very suspicious about what is going on behind the scenes.

VP for Bush is a distinct possibility ... also a possibility he will replace Bush is he (bush) becomes too much of a threat to cost the repubs the House and/or Senate.

The scenario in the first few posts is much more likely, I think.

[ithacan]

4. if McCain has half the integrity he supposedly does,

he will not even consider this.

he should work to take the Republican party back from the extremist opportunist loony right wingers...

[KoKo]

5. Yes, but it Bush is impeached in second term, (high probability) then

McCain becomes President. Repugs would be very happy with that scenario.

Kerry has not denied that he would choose McCain. He keeps it out there, the theory is, to annoy the Repugs.

So, sounds like McCain is everyone's choice right now if your speculation is correct that Repugs want him to replace Cheney and Dems want him so that we can be the "Unity Party." It's a game. Meanwhile the important issues in this election get lost because of the "game."

[library_max]

11. Bush isn't going to be impeached and removed from office.

If we learned anything from the Clinton impeachment, it is that impeachment is a political process, not a legal process. It doesn't matter a good goddamn what the President has done or hasn't done. It only matters that they can get a majority to vote against him in the House and two-thirds to vote against him in the Senate. We're not going to have those numbers in either house in 2005, especially not two thirds of the Senate.

[felonious thunk]

7. I would be shocked if McCain agreed to run with Bush

I don't think McCain wants to be VP at all. For either candidate for either party. He's got too much of a good thing going in the Senate, and he knows it. Could you imagine him towing the Bush admin line? I can't. I can't imagine him towing a Democratic line either.

[July]

13. I would be shocked if Bush agreed to run with McCain.

Bushy doesn't like to be upstaged, and McCain as VP would make all the talk about McCain. It would also put McCain in place to run after Bush, if Bush were to win, and I can't believe the Bush family (or the PNACers?) would go for that. Cheney doesn't want to give up his power, either.

I also agree w/your view that McCain doesn't want to be VP. I think he enjoys the speculation, perhaps.

[SheilaT]

8. And meanwhile

there's all the "buzz" about McCain as Kerry's VP. McCain, with all due respect, is not exactly the Second Coming. He's a good Republican, devoted to his political party. He's not going to join a Democrat as VP. He's going to be loyal to his president and his party.

Quite frankly, if McCain repudiates Bush, if things get so bad that McCain goes to Bush and says "resign", then it will happen. Until then, we're going to have politics as usual, with the nastiest, dirtiest campaign ever. Bush & Co will do everything possible to stay in power.

McCain is this political generation's Barry Goldwater. Those of you old enough to remember Watergate will recall that Richard Nixon hung in there and hung in there, and it wasn't until Goldwater went to him and said, "It's time to resign," that Nixon finally did so. And that was in the middle of impeachment proceedings.

Personally, I have enormous respect for McCain for surviving the horror of imprisonment and torture in North Vietnam. But I do not agree with his politics and his stands on many issues. Four years ago a lot of supposed liberals seemed to think that a possible McCain presidency would be good. They were wrong, although McCain certainly wouldn't have been the complete disaster that Bush has been.

Cheney is not going to stop being VP so long as he's breathing. He's undoubtedly the real president.

[whosinpower]

12. Well, McCain

would of been hundreds, more like thousands times better than Bush has been.

No, I think he really wants to stay in the position he is right now. He does not want the VP for either party. And, given Bush loyalty to Rumsfeld, I cannot see him dropping Cheney. We all know Cheney pulls the strings and Bush does the dance.

[HFishbine]

9. The "fun part" seems unlikely

As you observed, Bush wouldn't offer McCain the VP slot unless he was assured by McCain that it would be accepted.

Furthermore, Bush would be lost without uncle Dick. I think he remains on the ticket.

[beyurslf]

10. I think the last partis more likely to happen with McCain

denying him in public to embarrass him. McCain doesn't want to be VP; he wants to be President.

[Lydia Leftcoast]

14. Your take on the situation

makes a lot more sense than ANY of the "I love John McCain and want to have his children" posts we've been seeing for the past few days.

This constant pushing of McCain by low-count posters smells of a psy op.

[ithinkmyliverhurts]

15. I'm no McCain supporter.

Nor do I think Kerry would be wise to bring him on board. The last thing we need is for the GOP to co-opt more Democratic language (and for the Democratic party to co-opt repub. policy).

McCain is a force in American politics/American media. If either party took him on board, it would be a huge boost. I happen to think the Democratic party would have far, far more to lose.