There *are* no trends in the national polls.

[Teaser]

Read this *spectacular* analysis from pollster.com. It's something I've argued many times in here, but boosters on both sides haven't wanted to hear it.

First, there has been far more stability than change in the national Obama-Clinton vote preference since Super Tuesday, and that includes the period of last ten days. To the extent that we have seen real changes, they are barely bigger than what we might expect by chance alone.

Second, if you look closely, you will notice that the seemingly odd divergence between Gallup and Rasmussen since the Wright story broke is really not that unusual. It is comparable to similar separations in the trend lines that occurred around February 13 and February 29. Random variation will do that.

Third, and probably most important, it is far too easy to look at these rolling average tracking surveys and see compelling narratives and spin interesting theories from what is often little more than random noise.

Read the whole article. It's very good.