Kerry's "Lay low" or "Rope-a-Dope" strategy, which seems smart

[Mayberry Machiavelli]

in principle but has had me VERY VERY NERVOUS in these last weeks given I would expect shrub to be in complete free fall (like, double digit deficit) from all the bad Iraq news, instead of close to a tie...

But, with the most recent few polls showing a trend towards Kerry leading by about 5%, is this a "breakout" period for JK where he could seize the lead for the remainder of the race?

I certainly hope so... thoughts?

[Submariner]

1. Well he's on Insanity & Colmes now

so that shows he's defining himself to the Fauxnews audience which is good.

[leftistagitator]

2. It's hardly close

Polls of registered voters are all showing Kerry ahead by several points. The media plays with the figures by skewing data into categories such as "likely voters". Many of the polls intentionally included more rethugs than Democrats, despite the fact that Democrats still outnumber Repugs. And despite all of this, Kerry is still in better shape than any other challenger in modern history. Kerry will win, bet on it.

[mom cat]

3. Makes me nervous too.

The only issue where shrub is leading in the polls is the "who will best protect us against them" This would seem like the perfect time for Kerry to push the issue of diverting attention away from the war on terror.

[xultar]

4. Someone on AAR Tuesday said it best,

Don't murder someone who is committing suicide.

People still don't know JFK very well. He needs to do that instead of beating BushCo down. BushCo is doing fine wrecking his own parade.

I understand your nervousness.

Unless BushCo kills a baby on Live TV his base will vote for him. The intelligent wingnuts will rather stay home and not vote than vote for Kerry.

What you really need to be concerned about are the independents and Democrats that don't vote. They will determine this election. IF they don't get out we will lose. JFK must energize this group. They aren't paying attention now. They won't pay attention until October. That is why Kerry isn't gaining from BushCo's train wreck.

[Lefty Pragmatist]

6. If Bush killed a baby on national t.v...

... the administration would suggest they had secret evidence of the baby's in vitro complicity in 9-11, and the GOP base would still vote for Bush.

[xultar]

12. Better yet, the Baby was in th Berg Video. n/t

[Feanorcurufinwe]

5. The media's attempt to get Kerry to 'define himself' is really

an attempt to 'lock him into a story'. They want him to go on the record about a bunch of hypotheticals, and define his positions according to the debate framed the Republicans. Kerry knows better than to play that game. The real way to win elections is to organize, organize, organize, and get hot at the end. If your opponent spends that whole time imploding, so much the better. But elections are won or lost in the final few weeks. And I've had basically one response in my communications with the Kerry campaign: let's not peak too early. I think they know what they're doing.

[Beetwasher]

10. Bingo!

You got it. He's running a superb campaign. By the time Nov. rolls around, people are going to puke when they hear Bush talk about `steady leadership' because that will be his message from now to Nov. and it won't change.

[Mayberry Machiavelli]

11. It seems all shrubco does well is raise $$ and slander people. EOM

[unblock]

7. there are way too many risks in going for a surge NOW

timing is everything. if kerry becomes the acknowledged odds-on favorite, the horse-race mentality media will look for stories to prop up bush as underdog and chip away at kerry the favorite. not good.

besides, getting too confident means fewer donations and less commitment for when you need it. not good.

both candidates benefit from the appearance of a tight race, that's one of the reasons for the sky-high fundraising. but it works to kerry's advantage more, because while shrub can raise more money, he can no longer DWARF kerry in terms of funds. this means kerry actually WILL be able to come on strong at the end, because he'll have the money to do it.

sometimes passive is best. so far, this administration has been kerry's best fundraising tool and p.r. source. he shouldn't interfere.

[billbuckhead]

8. Kerry needs to run positive ads in battleground states

and don't get in the way of the Iraq trainwreck.

[DAGDA56]

9. If you consider Florida a battleground state...

...that's exactly what he's doing here...even a casual observer will notice that Kerry gets almost as much mention from the Bush ads as he does his own...and his have all been very positive. He says just enough about Iraq to show he "reads the papers" (unlike some people)

[riverwalker]

13. Kerry could windsurf all summer and still win in a landslide n/t

[ACK]

14. He is not laying low -- No.

Kerry assails Bush on Iraq Washington Post

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/articles/A22443-2004May12.html

Kerry calls the Iraq War a Failure

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/articles/A20807-2004May12.html

Don't Rush trials for Iraqi Prisoner Abuse

http://www.orlandosentinel.com/news/nationworld/orl-aseckerry13051304m...

Numbers don't bode well for Bush

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/articles/A25367-2004May13.html

He is bashing Bush and winning in the polls.