OBAMA TAKES LEAD IN GALLUP!! (Updated with story)

[adoraz]

woohooo!!

Down 2 yesterday, up 3 today!!

Update:

http://www.gallup.com/poll/105529/Gallup-Daily-Obama-Edges-Ahead-Clinton.aspx

PRINCETON, NJ -- Barack Obama has quickly made up the deficit he faced with Hillary Clinton earlier this week, with the latest Gallup Poll Daily tracking update on Democratic presidential nomination preferences showing 48% of Democratic voters favoring Obama and 45% Clinton.

Obama's campaign clearly suffered in recent days from negative press, mostly centering around his association with the controversial Rev. Jeremiah Wright. Perhaps as a result, Clinton moved into the lead in Gallup's Wednesday release, covering March 16-18 polling. But Obama has now edged back ahead of Clinton due to a strong showing for him in Friday night's polling, perhaps in response to the endorsement he received from well-respected New Mexico Gov. Bill Richardson, a former rival for the nomination.





Both Democrats have inched closer to John McCain in the latest update on registered voters' general election preferences. McCain holds just a two percentage point edge over both -- 46% to 44% over Obama and 47% to 45% over Clinton.

Gallup will not be reporting results on Easter Sunday, so the next update will be posted on Monday afternoon, reporting on March 21-23 interviewing. -- Jeff Jones



This is great news for all Democrats, now both candidates are pulling in even closer to McCain! Also something to keep in mind: this is a 3 day average, so Obama did better in yesterday's polling alone than the poll reflects. :)

[TwilightGardener]

1. YEEEEAAARRRGGGHHHHH!!!!

[quantass]

4. LOL!

[Pirate Smile]

21. I literally did scream out loud when I read the OP.

:woohoo:

[TwilightGardener]

32. I ran upstairs to tell my husband. He was worried all week.

[WillYourVoteBCounted]

54. y'all know that the Clinton campaign is broke, right?

that is likely permeating throughout the Super Delegate-Sphere at this time,
as indicated by the Richardson endorsement yesterday.

[TwilightGardener]

55. Yeah, I've been pretty stoked over that too.

[sudopod]

118. superdelegatesphere

I lol'd. ^_^

Nice!

[0007]

191. The full Monte

'Tis not a walker

[VolcanoJen]

72. ROFL

Yeaaaaarrrrgggghhhhhhh!!!!!!!!

[Ellipsis]

93. Hahahahhhhahhhaaa!

[anonymous171]

2. GOBAMA!

[quantass]

3. SHUZAAM!

[0007]

192. The Clinton's need more cabbage

X = $0

[lonestarnot]

5. Obama! Obama! Obama!

[cliffordu]

6. That's what I'm talkin' about!!!!

:patriot:

[senseandsensibility]

7. Richardson helped him

At least he got the Wright thing off the tube for a couple of hours.

[DevonRex]

8. Snoopy Dance! K&R

Yippee. Yaaayyy! Hallelujah! (Oh dear, I'm gonna get flamed for being a cult member or something now.)

[Kahuna]

98. Can you really do the Snoopy dance???

That would be really cool. ;)

[Jawja]

9. But why I am seeing all these posts

claiming that Clinton has the lead? :shrug:

I hope this one is the right one.

[TwilightGardener]

16. She has a slight lead in Rasmussen, but now he has the lead in Gallup--

so it's even-steven.

[adoraz]

65. Yeah both polls are very different

especially with their matchups against McCain.

We will see what happens the next few days.

[PATRICK]

33. Wright polls

are being trumpeted and overblown to try to pre-empt Obama's more than brilliant response. Let's keep looking at the whole thing to see if in fact that proves Obama is a very good rebounder to any attack, especially the ones that most worry professional politicians and voters.

People are abusing the abuses of polls and forgetting how they work, how they are weighted and what is actually going on. Solely used as a select edge propaganda tool they are trash. I expect with any remnant fairness applied Obama can beat them.

[EffieBlack]

193. You're right - did you notice that most of the "Wright" polls asked the question:

(paraphrasing) "Does Obama's relationship with Rev. Wright make you feel more positively toward Obama, more negatively toward him or the same?"

The press trumpeted that 36% of those polled said that the Wright incident lowered their opinion of Obama as proof that his support was dropping. But that's comparing apples and oranges. Bill Clinton's behavior with Monica Lewinsky lowered my opinion of him - instead of near worship, I dropped to just simply adoring him. But it did not change my support for him one iota.

Asking voters whether it lowered their opinion about someone is useless in an election cycle - the real question is whether or not they still planned to vote for him. And it sounds as if this incident did not hurt him at all where it counts.

[pnwmom]

146. This is actually a statistical tie, since the results are within the margin of error.

Another random sample could have produced the opposite result, with HRC appearing to be on top. In other words, it's "too close to call."

"The Democratic nomination results are based on combined data from March 19-21, 2008. For results based on this sample of 1,264 Democratic and Democratic-leaning voters, the maximum margin of sampling error is ±3 percentage points."

[backscatter712]

10. Oh, yeah, baby!!!

That's how you do it!!!

YES, WE CAN!!!

[rndmprsn]

11. DOWN GOES CLINTON, DOWN GOES CLINTON!

sorry i had to say that in my best howard kossel imitation =]

[me b zola]

22. lol, I heard his voice as I read your subject line

:)

[Patsy Stone]

12. Wow.

"I still believe, in spite of everything, that people are truly good at heart." -- Anne Frank.

[rndmprsn]

41. i love that quote...

[goclark]

144. Ann Framk wrote it so beautifully ~

Yes.She.Did

:bounce:
:bounce:

[galactical]

13. Where's Jlake and jacksondem when things like this happen?

Always seem to be around when polls go their way....

[adoraz]

24. they won't show up :)

[Name removed]

37. Deleted message

Message removed by moderator. Click here to review the message board rules.

[slick8790]

39. Likewise.

I saw him in another thread after, but I didn't wanna be a dick and call him out.

[Name removed]

58. Deleted message

Message removed by moderator. Click here to review the message board rules.

[jgraz]

113. Actually, to me that would be *Ignored*

Don't miss him a bit.

[JackORoses]

132. i wonder if Richardson is still in his sig

[Qutzupalotl]

208. I think that was Metheuen P

But I can see why you might get them confused.

[jgraz]

114. They're down at the bank making sure their Hillary08 paychecks haven't bounced

:evilgrin:

[slinkerwink]

166. heh

[Divine Discontent]

180. *snicker!* eom

[sudopod]

120. On the Trail of Tears? :p nt

[joeprogressive]

205. or rodeodance. I can't wait for them to all go away if they aren't

going to support the Dem. nominee.

[rndmprsn]

14. oh K&R BTW

[shraby]

15. Happy dance time!!

[Cha]

182. Absolute!

[Laura S.]

17. Obama!

:toast: CONGRATULATIONS! I HOPE THIS CONTINUES INTO PENNSYLVANIA!

[ClayZ]

18. Yay! K and R

[ClayZ]

69. Kick

[Rosa Luxemburg]

19. Yes yes yes

the storm is over!

[casus belli]

20. Good news, but I hate polls...

Seriously, we're either the most fickle people in the world, or polls are just clever ways of swaying people easily influenced by group-think. I realize candidates have to have some sort of metric to gauge the "pulse" of public opinion. But given the huge disparity between differing polls, and coupled with the vague definition of the samples ie "likely" voters, etc. I just don't see how they can be all that accurate.

[TwilightGardener]

29. Well, any day where he isn't dropping like a rock, after the last couple weeks,

is good news. It means he's weathering the beating he took.

[casus belli]

44. I agree, but I was getting that from the comments I hear from people

So, when it wasn't immediately reflected in the polls, I knew that the polls were either inaccurate or sluggish to respond. I have to take the good news with a grain of salt the same way that I take the bad, and only because when its bad news it affects me in a way it shouldn't. I consider myself a fairly reasonable person, not prone to general persuasion, but if a poll reflects badly upon Obama and it affects me in a personal way, it can't be a good thing.

Not only that, but Barack has consistently outperformed polls. I think part of the problem lies in the samples they use. Barack has strong support among younger voters, and professionals - many of whom use non-traditional communication (VOIP, cell phones, etc). Since those types of communication aren't used in polls, and the samples are generally very small - say 400-1100 people - I just don't see how they can accurately predict any outcome.

edit: spellcheck missed some stuff

[BearSquirrel2]

154. I don't think that's the issue ...

I don't think that's the issue. After you take a stratified sample, you weight it according to your population. In this case, you weight it according to historical turnouts for various demographics. Obama has been pulling people out to the poles that typically do not vote.

BTW, I think the Ohio results can be completely explained by dittoheads crossing over and voting for Hillary.

[jerryster]

188. I don't think it was dittoheads.

I think Hillary thumped Obama in Ohio with Dem voters. One thing I haven't seen in most recent threads is the fact that a lot of women over a certain age are coming back to Hillary. They are apparently doing so because they have experienced first hand the obstacles women have had to overcome. It is these voters who helped her win Texas and Ohio. To say it is dittoheads gives way too much credit to dittoheads and actually insults a lot of voters.

In case you're wondering, I voted for Obama. I just want to keep the primary contest in perspective.

[ingac70]

23. Thanks Gov. Richardson! n/t

[PATRICK]

25. The effect of the speech

finally is coming through. These things ALWAYS take time to show in the polls. The roller of primaries and events make it near impossible to keep track of these effects lately. The press was trying to spin the effect toward the negative impact as did the Clinton campaign to interpret OLD polls based on Wright
as the final product of the whole issue.

This proves rather that Obama is a strong rebounder, very strong in fact, more important than the numbers themselves. Another attack thus has backfired but don't expect a Dem hostile press to note it much.

[Tribetime]

26. great news, people are smarter than the media

[malik flavors]

27. TIMMMEEEE is on ouuurrrr side. YES IT IS!

[Tarheel_Dem]

28. I like the look of that...which is why the Clinton campaign spent the

whole day trying to downplay the significance of Richardson's endorsement. Obama's on the upswing again, and I'm loving it. I'll even, reluctantly, give Chris Wallace a little bit of credit here. He took a bold stand against his pay masters. 24/7 Pastorgate has run its course, I do believe.

GO DONATE!

[krkaufman]

168. chuckle. Murtha who?

Remember how they were trumpeting the Murtha endorsement just a few days earlier, and then endorsements suddenly became irrelevant. My irony circuit breakers are continually tripping these days.

[Tarheel_Dem]

175. it's true. Murtha wasn't sticking his neck out, he's going with popular

opinion. We all know she'll win PA, so he wasn't taking any risk. And besides, Murtha probably deplores the idea of "government transparency" under an Obama administration.

[krkaufman]

179. Yeah, Jack's not the cleanest Congresscritter.... being a regular on CREW's "most corrupt" list. n/t

[goclark]

186. Chris Wallace wiped the floor with Hannity

you must see it!

Just that video says that somebody in the Wrong Wing is listening.

Huum, it just struck me, why do we allow them to be called Right, they are WRONG!

:bounce:

[Tarheel_Dem]

187. I'll have to dig up that video. I knew he had called the morning

hosts on their b.s., but I didn't know he had smacked Hannity down as well. Good on him. How anyone can still call himself a journalist, and be connected with that network just mystifies the hell out of me.

[CoffeeCat]

30. The Wright stuff...

....caused a bit of a dip, but Obama demonstrated that he has the clear
vision and intellect to rise above these petty attacks--and turn it around
and convert it into a teachable moment.

That's leadership, class and an obliteration of the old politics and an ushering in
of a new day in America.

Unlike the media--who salivates on controversy and tension, the American people get
it. They know an extraordinary leader when they see one and they understanding
that we have that in Barack Obama.

His polls will continue to trend upward. The full brunt of his speech has just
begun factoring into those polls.

Good things are on the horizon, Obama supporters.

They've thrown everything at him that they could. Not only was he unaffected, but he
turned those situations around--proving that he is more-than-ready for the Presidency.

[Tribetime]

38. agreed he's done something Kerry couldn't do

fully recover from swiftboating non issues. Could even be turning it into a net positive, thus preventing future attacks from stinging as much. It really gives me hope the american people may be waking up to what really matters.

[jefferson_dem]

48. The way he responded to the swiftboat tactics says as much about him as a candidate and a leader

than anything else. Obama will make us proud!

[blm]

50. Kerry won - media used swifts to cover up election fraud for BushInc.

BTW - Kerry had the swifts swatted down immediately after they came out in May2004. They retreated and came back in Aug2004 when McAuliffe's DNC schedule made sure Kerry would have a month where he couldn't spend money and would need to rely on the Dem party for the messaging - how did they do?

Kerry had a huge speech countering the swifts and challenged Bush to debate their services publicly and stop hiding behind the swifts to do his dirty work. That speech was in front of the Firefighters Convention on Aug 19, 2004 - the corporate media refused to broadcast that speech, and barely reported that it even occurred.

Do you think if the news networks had refused to broadcast Obama's speech and barely reported on it that the Wright issue would be over any time soon?

You should learn about the chronology of the swifts' campaign and the media's COMPLICITY to protect Bush's second term - and think again before you reference it the way you did.

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_oet&address=358x2555

[Tribetime]

74. I know he came out immediately

perhaps I didn't say it right, I love Kerry, it just seemed he never recovered fully in the polls fro whatever reason after the attacks. I personaly think in Ohio he won also but due to electronic voting it was covered up. They broadcast non stop with the swiftboaters the Sunday before the election in southern Ohio on Clearchannel, I'm just saying the people it was designed to target worked in southern Ohio, and nothing made me as furious as the media allowing this injustice to continue.

[blm]

92. Kerry moved ahead in the polls after the debates - as expected. The swifts did nothing - the media

afterwards to cover up for the exit polls that showed a landslide for Kerry but the machine counts showing a Bush win, latched onto the swifts as the excuse why Bush won.

There is also the separate point, that IF the networks refused to carry Obama's speech and would not allow the proper counter to any of the negative portrayals of Wright with the facts supplied by Obama and his campaign, THEN this matter would be on a playing field similar to the one Kerry faced.

[Tribetime]

105. agreed the speech turned it around

despite the medias addiction to it. I hope it's about over with.

[ooglymoogly]

149. Kerry did win the election, probably by a landslide

But he laid his weapons down and hoist the white flag as soon as idiot proclaimed an unholy and unbelievable victory, and that is why he lost my support after giving him all I could afford to have lawyers at the ready and all for naught. I think I can be secure in the knowledge that Obama will not do the same when defrauded by these treasonous hucksters.

[blm]

196. Thank McAuliffe's DNC and Carville who made SURE the legal evidence wouldn't be there

for Kerry to delay concession with a court case.

DNC never secured the election process after 2000s theft because McAuliffe was protecting 2008 for Hillary.

Nice of you to blame the one person, the candidate who DID his job with us and won, and you absolve all those who were undermining him and us and actively SABOTAGING Ohio Dem voters on election night.

[ooglymoogly]

203. certainly not absolving anyone. I am stating a fact...Kerry raised the

flag of surrender even before all the votes were counted supposedly having a phalanx of lawyers (which we paid for) there watching to protect against fraud. I am not saying by any means that there was not skulduggery going on in the Republican wing of the Democratic party. I am saying Kerry raised no objections whatsoever, leaving the fighters who were raising plenty of objections no cover or anything to fight for and fighting on alone.

[blm]

204. Your story is inaccurate. The votes they HAD were counted. The stolen votes COULDN'T be counted

and there was no legal case to make in court as PER the entire Dem party election legal team. And Kerry didn't concede until the NEXT DAY - the second slowest concession in history.

Kerry stayed in three court cases in Ohio on cases that DID have to be made but none of those changed the result to overturn the difference. That would have taken a whistleblower to come forward and that is something they stayed on track with until that person was comfortable enough to come forward publicly, but that didn't happen.


Blaming Kerry turned into a convenient distraction for all those powerful Democrats involved with the actual undermining of the Democratic campaign AND the sabotaging of Dem voters.

The fools LET them get away with their lies and spin as they piled on Kerry - just as when those SAME powerful Dems turned on Gore years earlier to blame it all on him.

[Coexist]

52. agreed.

[Upton]

31. Link? I keep getting (3-21) poll

[adoraz]

34. No link yet to the story, but check the URL of the image

its from Gallup

[TwilightGardener]

35. This new person sez:

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_mesg&forum=132&topic_id=5207603&mesg_id=5208328

[jefferson_dem]

51. They also post the graph on their "election" page before posting the write-up.

Like this --->

Here ---> http://www.gallup.com/poll/election2008.aspx

[earthlover]

195. The graph shows a couple of things....

1) Clinton and Obama have been close to each other and trading leads for awhile. Neither is trending up or down, it's more back and forth.

2) There has not been a shift to Hillary long-term over the Wright issue. The "lead" she had was short and merely part of the previous pattern of "back and forth". There certainly was no sharp drop off of Obama's support or anything resembling a trend.

I think this is good news for Obama. I think many were worried that the Wright thing might have significantly hurt him. Apparently it has not.
So it is back to the same back and forth for awhile.

This is significant for Obama because he holds most of the cards, delegate-wise. If Hillary were able to show a significant decline in the polls by Obama, she could have a talking point in persuading the super delegates. There is nothing to point to in the above data that gives her any such arguement.

[zam]

36. It hasn't been linked on their website yet.

You take the link for their daily graph:

aaaa://media.gallup.com/poll/graphs/032208DailyUpdateGraph1.gif (replace aaaa with http)

And then change the date to today, and you get their graph an hour or so earlier than posted on their website.

[DavidDvorkin]

40. Hah! Take that, Rasmussen!

[Colobo]

42. Obama's back! Fuck you, Pastorgate!

[Dems Will Win]

43. The Speech worked. Anyone bringing up Wright now is trying to impose the racist Republican Election

Strategy on the country and is a racist Republican.

Let's get to the issues: Like Hillary approving Mountaintop Removal in WV and Obama's agin it!

[adoraz]

45. I just did some math

and it appears Obama had a double digit lead for yesterday alone since this is a 3 day type thing.

Lets not get too excited, I doubt his lead is really that good, however this is great news whichever way you look at it!

I can't wait for the story to be released!

edit: its actually hard to tell how big his lead was yesterday because each number is an average. If its not double digits though, I think its pretty close to that.

[Lefty-Taylor]

46. No one could have predicted that Hillary supporters here who predicted his demise

would be WRONG.

;)

[Emillereid]

47. Calling all statisticians - what the hell are we to make of all the conflicting

poll data. As a psychologist I used to have some respect for surveys, but lately they seem all over the place and therefore meaningless. What gives?

[EFerrari]

49. And does anyone know the MOE? (Sorry to piggyback!) n/t

[Teaser]

78. If you studied any statistics

You should be familiar with the concept of sample noise.

That is what causes all these changes in lead, or most of them. Sample noise.

The oscillation period in these tracking polls is 3-4 days: one candidate will spend, on average, 3-4 days in front of the other. Why?

Because the length of the moving average used in the poll is usually 3 or 4 days.

[Emillereid]

111. Of course. But the results seem to gyrate wildly - are they all within the

margin of error?

[Teaser]

155. Well, the "margin of error"

only provides us with a statisical estimate that the true mean falls within certain confidence limits. Basically, most of these polls have a 90-95% confidence interval at work, so with each value you have a 95% chance that the true value falls inside the limits. Given that, there is a 1 in 20 chance that the next sample will fall outside the MOE. So slightly more than once a month, if only random processes are at work, you should see a large deviation in the poll. That large deviation will persist for several days because of the moving average. And then, if all else is constant, you should see another large deviation as that sample falls off the moving average window edge. So two large swings a month is expected.

On top of that, the system is not really stochastic. Opinion is bumped around by current events, which can swing samples for a day. Other anomalies (weekends, no one has figured them out yet) and friday nights also skew the distributions.

so given all that, that's the tool we have to work with. Is it good enough? Sometimes.

[Emillereid]

200. Thanks. You've buffeted my belief in statistics again. What's with weekends btw?

[electron_blue]

157. Well - there is a +/-3% sampling error with this poll, so really they are in a tie.

And the data don't support Obama being ahead for certain. It's within the realm of possibility that either of them is ahead. Obama could be 3% lower and Clinton could be 3% higher than the numbers quoted. Honestly, C&O have been in a statistical tie for the last several weeks.

[Adelante]

53. Fingers crossed

Oh, God, make it so :cry:

[Bullet1987]

56. YEA!!!!

[adoraz]

57. alright, OP is now updated with all the story information :)

[K Gardner]

59. Oopsie Daisy ! GOBAMA !

[Bensthename]

60. I hope Clinton supporters enjoyed their short time ahead.. After Obamas worst week it will rise mor

[Kahuna]

99. LOL! nt

[Colobo]

61. Can Obama be stopped? Nah.

[Perry Logan]

62. Our hearts bounce up and down with the polls!

Sometimes, being into politics is worse than being a manic depressive.

[Tatiana]

63. Sweet! And I don't think he's done surging.

Polish off that teflon!

[WillyT]

64. Woo Hoo !!! - K & R !!!

:bounce::woohoo::bounce:

:kick:

[Snarkoleptic]

66. Go-Bama!

[adoraz]

67. 3 days ago he was at -7. Today he is at +3. :)

Thats pretty amazing.

Looks like his speech and Bill really helped.

[Kahuna]

101. Hillary being exposed as greatly embellishing her time as 1st

lady certainly didn't hurt us. :)

[tabasco]

68. But... but... but ... the Hillary drones say he is finished!

I'm so confused!!!

:shrug:

[Rosa Luxemburg]

71. They thought the Pastor Wright thing would see Obama off!

he's still there and gaining.

[tabasco]

76. It's pretty desperate when all you have to put your hope on is smears

based on somebody's outspoken pastor and no-so-thinly-veiled racism.

Somebody posted that the Clinton campaign got its "angry black man" with the Wright smear.

I am sure that was their goal in their rotten planning sessions.

It really just exposed Hillary's campaign for what it is, a campaign for the status quo.

[Rosa Luxemburg]

83. If she can't run on the real issues concerning our country then

she shouldn't be running period.

[FrenchieCat]

77. They were praying for it.....

[Rosa Luxemburg]

84. LOL!

[jenmito]

70. I couldn't have asked for a better birthday present!

I was scared to come here today for fear of what I'd see in the latest poll, but I'm glad I did! :bounce:

[abbyg8r]

73. Happy Birthday!

GO OBAMA!!!!

[jenmito]

80. Thanks, abbyg8r!

Yes-GO OBAMA! :hi:

[FrenchieCat]

75. Well Happy Birthday my Dear!

Here's to you! :toast:

And here's to "The truth shall set us free!" and Barack Obama! :headbang:

[jenmito]

81. Thanks, Frenchie!

And thanks for those pics! :D :hi:

[Tarheel_Dem]

87. Frenchie, I LOVE that pic....

:rofl:

I have to admit, I've been down a little, but this news, that pic and the camaraderie of fellow DU'ers has lifted my spirits immensely.

[JustinL]

82. Happy Birthday!

[jenmito]

159. Thanks, JustinL!

:hi:

[Tarheel_Dem]

89. Happy B-day jenmito.........

:toast: :party: :yourock:

[jenmito]

161. Thanks, Tarheel_Dem!

:hi:

[flpoljunkie]

96. HAPPY BIRTHDAY, JENMITO!

GOBAMA!

[jenmito]

162. Thanks, flpoljunkie!

:hi:

[Kahuna]

102. Happy Birthday Jenmito....but didn't you have a

birthday just a couple of months ago???? :shrug:

[jenmito]

163. Thanks, but no. I didn't have a birthday a couple months ago!

:shrug:

[biglefthander]

178. Happy Birthday!!!

:party: :beer: :headbang: :hug:

[Evergreen Emerald]

79. How could he not? He has been covered by the propaganda machine

24/7. Geez, if he wasn't ahead after that constant ticker-tape-media-fawning, there would be something wrong.


Just ask GW: propaganda always helps.

[slinkerwink]

86. its amazing how the media is after him

[Tarheel_Dem]

90. Where were you when the media strapped Rev. Wright to his back?

you Clinton folk just slay me. What else is in the kitchen sink? :shrug:

[Evergreen Emerald]

133. you guys are such hypocrites

I said again and again--when you all cheered when the media was distorting and lying about Clinton just to help Obama that they are not friends to democrats. But, you all slept with the media enemy cause it helped you.

YOu reap what you sew.

[Tarheel_Dem]

177. I am not NOW, nor have I ever been fooled by the media, because

I initially supported Edwards. The media is all about ratings, money, and controlling public perception. The media told us for a whole year, why bother, Hillary is "inevitable". I'm sorry, but I just never saw the bias that you Clintonites claim. Perhaps, I wasn't looking for it, because I never supported Hillary. I guess bias is in the eye of the beholder.

Obama's meteoric rise, and his ability to inspire and energize people who have never participated in, or had completely given up on the process, is newsworthy. How do they get around not reporting that? You guys have attacked the media relentlessly, and they apparently caved in, because they're covering Obama negatively 24/7, while Clinton and McCain skate.

[woolldog]

85. Just wait until the Richardson endorsement gets factored in.

He should get a nice bump from that as well.

[adoraz]

97. yes, especially with Hispanics :)

[TeamJordan23]

88. Now the question is whether the MSM will report this. nm

[adoraz]

103. probably not

they want it to seem like the race is close.

[Kahuna]

104. They won't. I've been noticing that they're downplaying any postive

Obama polls lately. Joe Scaborough and Pat Buchannan won't be happy. :applause:

[SunsetDreams]

91. Thank you for posting this!

It is very clear in the days since his speech, he is once again on the rise.

GOBAMA!!

[krawhitham]

94. Say he is not "vetted" now, come on Hill lie some more to me

[cottonseed]

Part of this shows the big name Dems need to grow a pair.

Thank you Richardson. The people on the fence regarding this Wright garbage want a reason to move past it. They want to back Obama but may not be sure. Big name Dems like Richardson coming out for the guy gives them that reason. Now, for the rest of them. Come on out, stop fearing the Republican's and MSM and endorse the guy!

[Tarheel_Dem]

95. thanks for the update adoraz.....

:hi:

[BeyondGeography]

100. What a week...he earned these numbers

He gave one of the best speeches in American political history in response to a full-blown crisis and it won him Richardson's endorsement.

Thankfully, it all meant something to people out there.

[David Zephyr]

106. Great news!

Thanks for posting it here.

[adoraz]

107. the best thing about this poll

is that Hillary supporters aren't even trying to downplay this. you know its great news when you don't see that. :)

[stop the bleeding]

127. they're all in a meeting

:beer:

[AntiFascist]

108. K&R, how many times can CNN play the Pastor Wright video...

before people start getting really tired of CNN.

[writes3000]

110. I've stopped watching. Why bother? n/t

[Window]

109. Senator Obama, do the damn thing!!!

:nuke:

[BumRushDaShow]

112. K&R

:kick:

[jgraz]

115. Any guess on how many HillBots said "GOD DAMN AMERICA" when they saw that poll?

:evilgrin:

[FrenchieCat]

116. This thread cannot be made to sink!

[depakid]

117. It's impressive how everyone dances to the tune of Gallup.

or whatever other bogus poll is out there trying to influence your opinions.

It's like somehow over the years, you've lost the ability to critically think- and would rather let the likes of Gallup or Rassmussen do your thinking for you.

[Joe the Revelator]

119. polls don't count

:rofl:

[depakid]

122. You're a classic example of the sort of American I'm talking about

and my guess is that you were singing a different tune back last fall when Hillary supporters were pummeling the boards- and making similar claims- about their bogus polls.

I've long thought that basic stats and quantitative analysis should be a requirement for graduating high school. It's a hell of a lot more useful skill set than trigonometry will ever be.

[Joe the Revelator]

123. I said, feel free to look in the archives, that national polls meant little more then popular

opinion before any votes were counted. I was right.

If you support "basic stats" and quantitative analysis, then you would understand that polls do give an accurate snap shot of public opinion.

I'm afraid that you are not as smart and you would like to pretend to be.

[depakid]

131. "an accurate snap shot of public opinion." Exactly INCORRECT

these cheap polls have very little value in the short term (if the wild inaccuracies in this primary season hasn't taught you that, I don't what will).

Their only value is in spotting trends over time in their sample sets -and they only do that if they have reliability -in other words, the same methodology and questions (and types of interviewers) are used every time they run them.

As to methodology (validity) there are tons of problems with that too- enough to write a book about. Bottom line though is that any grad student worth their salt can put together a "scientific" poll and give you more or less the results you want to hear by tweaking this or that.

Accurate research into attitudes and probably behaviors is tedious- time consuming and expensive. That's why campaigns spend so much on their internals- and why they keep the result held close to their chests.

I guarantee you that what they get is quite different from what you find in DU favorites like Rassmussen and Gallup.

[adoraz]

126. these polls aren't influencing our opinions...

don't know where you got that from. they are saying how they poll nationally. obviously its good news when our candidate polls well nationally...

[Qutzupalotl]

121. The swiftboating BACKFIRED.

Obama turned it around by speaking to us as ADULTS.

That is some amazing political Aikido.

I know they're not done, but neither is he. The man has what it takes.

[my3boyz]

124. Let's see how much CNN/MSNBC covers this! I still

say that national polls do not matter that much. It is about state to state polls. Still good to see the media's attempt to knock Obama down backfire.

[tekisui]

125. knr!

[grantcart]

128. thks

[McCamy Taylor]

129. Looking good.

[DerekJ]

130. After almost 2 weeks of constant negative media, he still pulls ahead in polls

What does that tell you?

[Scurrilous]

134. K & R

:thumbsup:

[stratomagi]

135. Wasn't surprised about this.

I'm glad americans have been able to see through Pastorgate for what it is.

[npincus]

136. great newz!

[mckara]

137. Always Have Faith in the American People!

They can be fooled some of the time, BUT NOT ALL OF THE TIME! :spray: :patriot:

[DerekJ]

138. Kick

:kick:

[tabasco]

139. The scurrilous "kitchen sink" smear campaign will only hurt Hillary.

She is exposed as a cretin.

[malik flavors]

140. K&R

[maximusveritas]

141. It's going to keep going back and forth.

Most of the nation has voted already and Obama has all but sealed the nomination.

[rucognizant]

142. And Lou Dobbs just said.......

W--- ( will?) Obama's REFUSAL TO DISTANCE HIMSELF FROM HIS PREACHER ?( I thought he DID) cause him to lose the nomination?
They just keep pitching the slant!

[thewiseguy]

143. Yes Sir! Go Obama!

[pnwmom]

145. Obama IS up from before, but these results are a tie -- within the margin of error.

In other words, another random sample could have produced the opposite result, with HRC appearing to be on top.

"The Democratic nomination results are based on combined data from March 19-21, 2008. For results based on this sample of 1,264 Democratic and Democratic-leaning voters, the maximum margin of sampling error is ±3 percentage points."

[adoraz]

147. but it also means

since it is a 3 day average it shows there is a trend line in Obama's favor, and since it is 3 days it also means that yesterday the average had to be well above +3 for Obama.

edit: oh and 3 pts MoE means it could be anywhere from tied to plus 6 for Obama, I believe, not Clinton +3.

[pnwmom]

152. Within the margin of error, you can't say one or the other is ahead,

not with the usual 95% probability.

And the problem with looking at the results of the last day only, is that that would involve only a third of the sample size -- so the margin of error would be a great deal larger.

[adoraz]

169. true but Obama will most likely be out of the MoE by Monday

Monday is the next polling day. we'll see what happens, but no matter how you look at this, its great news for Obama. Even a tie with Hillary would have been great after trailing by 7 a few days ago.

[trickyguy]

148. These polls look like snakes slithering around each other.

But the real snake is gonna start taking a nose dive. Guess who SHE is?

After Gov. Richardson's endorsement I think the domino effect will start to take place
and Obama will come out the winner.

Sure as hell hope so.:evilgrin:

[Blutodog]

150. Lets hope Ur right!!

Obama will prevail!! Clintoon and McBV$H are yesterday's news. America needs to move past these people.

[Mooney]

151. He's imploding! He's in free fall! It's over!

Et cetera.

[BearSquirrel2]

153. The Wright thing blew over ...

The Wright thing blew over. In all likelyhood, the Obama campaign self struck so they would have time to explain themselves and recover well before the next primary.

[vincenzoesq]

156. but how in the world can McCain be ahead of the Dems?

I am thrilled to see Obama rising in the polls again. But I cannot for the life of me fathom how ANYONE would vote for
a republican after dick and dumbya. God help us!

[metrodorus]

158. What difference does it make? We're losing to McCain.

Current polls indicate that McCain will win the election. While
it's nice you're happy that Obama is winning, this intense fight
between Clinton and Obama partisans (who are both ultimately
corporatists, so what difference does it make? ) is killing our
chances of beating McCain.

[cyndensco]

160. GOBAMA

[meow mix]

164. nice K&R so much for hillarys fleet of swiftboats.

[greyghost]

165. I'm not surprised in the least, Go Barack, Go!

[bagimin]

167. Oh Mark Penn!......comments please.

pft.

[krkaufman]

170. That's weird. I'd been hearing that Obama was nosediving and Richardson's endorsement didn't matter

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_topic&forum=132&topic_id=5207603

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_topic&forum=132&topic_id=5168400

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_topic&forum=132&topic_id=5159220


edit: p.s. boo. yah.

[L0oniX]

171. And the Hillbots are going crazy now ...well they always were a little crazy.

[TheWatcher187]

172. Great News

[1776Forever]

173. This is just the start of something BIG - Just wait HRC tax records are going to explode soon!

[defendandprotect]

174. Not a HRC fan; however, if elections can be fixed. .. why not polls? So ... take it easy!!!

[slinkerwink]

176. kicking like Hillary as she's dragged out of the Democratic race

[FrenchieCat]

185. I only wish.....

We are gonna have to pry her off the floor first. Last I heard, she's bolted down and screaming about being an unmovable object! :(

[slinkerwink]

194. ugh. Why can't she be more like Huckabee

[Divine Discontent]

181. hey it's only one poll but it's great to see considering

so many were saying this was going to destroy him. I think his speech that many people have seen at least a few minutes of, some 400,000 have watched the whole thing on youtube from start to end, really had a great effect.

C'mon, Sen. Clinton - be respectable and back down and support him with as much fervor as you and your husband have had going against him. Your campaign is broke and there's no being so far back in money and delegates that the supers are going to swing your way at a (what? 75%?) large clip to get this done for you.


I sure hope she backs down in April (if not sooner).

[Enthusiast]

183. Barack has convinced me!

His speech about the state of racism was the best I have ever heard. I mean the single best. If people would only listen, his popularity would soar. This guy is amazing. We must have him as president. After elected he will have to check the credentials of every secret serviceman. Every part of government is infiltrated with Neo-Con operatives. They could allow his assassination. Corporate powers do not want Obama as president.

[FrenchieCat]

184. kick!

[DaveJ]

189. But McCain is still leading in national polls

What's wrong with this country? Half the people still want GWB II.

I don't buy into the meme that polls are unreliable. People really are insane, from my personal experience... which is why Obama has a huge job ahead of him to appeal to U.S. voters.

[Unbowed]

190. Rock & Roll!

:patriot:

:woohoo:

:kick:

[ShortnFiery]

197. Kick

:dem:

[greyghost]

198. KICK!

[Iwillnevergiveup]

199. Just heard a talk show host

mention that the amount of money Barack has and keeps pulling in would enable him to blanket PA with TV and radio ads as well as make public appearances in most of its' cities.

And win the damn state after all!

[4_Legs_Good]

201. Nice, but don't count on it! PA will be a very tough sell

Just like Ohio, only more so. I think he can close the gap a bit, and keep the loss below 20 points, but I don't expect him to win, or even to lose by less than 10 points unless Hillary implodes, which I doubt.

But just watch him bounce back afterwards with big wins in North Carolina and Oregon!

David

[greyghost]

206. If he managed to pull it off, it would be the FINAL nail.

[4_Legs_Good]

202. I think what's clear is that these tracking polls don't count for much

I mean, sure they're a gauge of sentiment at the moment, and after a bad week, of course he's gonna dip in the polls, but that is in no way indicitive of a "Clinton Comeback" or an impending loss in November.

We need to cut back a bit on the doomsaying whenever things turn for a bit.

Not that I'm not still pissed beyond belief at the way this Wright thing has played out. I've rarely been so disillusioned with the American people, that they, even if only for 1 week, bought the media portrayal of Wright in 60 seconds worth of clips, and so went with the "guilty by association" route hook, line and sinker.

I hope and pray that the MSM steps up to the plate and is more honest about Wright, and a bit more clear headed about Obama's association and somehow makes ammends.

David

[greyghost]

207. KICK!