Bush takes 12-point lead in Wisconsin (Bush 50, Kerry 38)

[TheStateChief]

In the Badger Poll, taken April 20-28 by the University of Wisconsin Survey Center, Bush leads Kerry 50% to 38%, with independent Ralph Nader drawing 6%.

That's a bigger advantage than Bush enjoyed in the same poll a month ago, when he led Kerry 47% to 41%, with Nader at 5%.

It's also a much larger margin than Bush has had in any national polls. Those polls have fluctuated in recent weeks but by relatively small amounts, with all the numbers pointing to a very tight contest.

Wisconsin has tracked the national results remarkably closely in the past three presidential races, and the state was decided by just two-tenths of a percentage point in 2000.

http://www.jsonline.com/news/state/apr04/226062.asp

----------

There is another poll mentioned in the article that shows Kerry ahead, but it was taken last week and this was taken through Wednesday of this week.

[Puglover]

1. Horsepucky...

Not doubting your link; just the accuracy of the "poll".

[Nicholas D Wolfwood]

2. No f'ing way.

Only if the sample was of registered Republicans could that split be so huge

[West Coast Democrat]

3. How interesting that I haven't seen you post in the last few days

...while there were negative polls for Bush to be posted.

[TheStateChief]

17. I've posted negative polls on Bush

Sorry if I'm not always first with all the polls.

I think it's important to see all of these polls and if I see one that hasn't been posted I post it.

I'll try harder next time.

[West Coast Democrat]

20. Seriously, do you scan the internet for polls daily?......

then post the ones that are bad for Kerry? Why weren't you around at all when the latest group of bad polls for Bush came out? Just wondering if that's a coincidence or what.

[SaveElmer]

These polls are complete B**Sh*t

Two other polls out this week have Kerry up 8 or 9...ridiculous!!!

[LittleApple81]

4. Are they going use e-voting machines for the election? n/t

[RobertSeattle]

5. Sounds like a Kool Aid Poll

RW'ers are going to go deaf in their own echo chamber.

[Caromill]

6. Rasmussed shows Kerry ahead in WI

I don't have a link, but I think yesterday's Rasmussen poll showed Kerry up by 8 points -- 50% to 42% -- in Wisconsin, and also with a slight lead nationwide.

[qazplm]

7. And in another poll

taken over the same time (Rasmussen which ends on the same day), Kerry is up by a similiar amount (8pts). And in another poll taken around the same time (a week earlier), Kerry is also up but by a lesser amount (7 pts).

I suspect that the Badger Poll is incorrect. There is no way two other polls could be in effect 20 pts off. Nothing has happened that would cause Bush to be up 12 points in Wisconsin. The previous Badger Poll had Bush up by 4 pts, what could have possibly happened to make him go up 8 pts in a month? Nothing.

Plus, the sample size is only 511 Wisconsin RESIDENTS, it doesnt even survey registered or likely voters. I suspect the rest of the poll is no better set-up.

[sadiesworld]

12. Welcome to DU, qazplm...

and thanks for the info. I try not to worry about polls but this thread title made me a bit queasy, I confess.

:hi:

[WI_DEM]

8. I don't think that Bush leads by 12-points

and I don't think that Kerry leads by 9-points as another poll suggests. It is close here in Wisconsin. But if Bush does win here it is over with.

[West Coast Democrat]

9. This poll is not too new....April 20th was last week

this poll is not a lot more recent than the other poll you mention that was taken last week.

[papau]

10. 2 college kid polls - hope they got extra credit! w/Kerry up/Kerry down

:-)

[info being]

11. They are pretty ignorant and brainwashed there.

I know, I have ties.

[Name removed]

13. Deleted message

Message removed by moderator. Click here to review the message board rules.

[TheStateChief]

19. What is your problem?

I didn't know it was against the rules to post links to real news sites with polls. That kind of sucks that you want me banned just because the news is bad.

Sorry, but I don't understand why some are so afraid of hearing bad news around here. I'd rather know what is going on and be informed. I just don't get it.

[West Coast Democrat]

21. Don't assume that other DUers don't notice a pattern

in your posts.

[ibegurpard]

24. Perhaps you would prefer to bury your head in the sand?

I stated downthread that I don't buy this poll but what is it you would like? Only polls that show Kerry ahead? What if NONE of them do? What will you discuss then? :eyes:

[West Coast Democrat]

25. I just want the guy to post the entire article....

from which he's culling his information, including the parts that are positive for Kerry. Otherwise, I'm suspicious of the guy's motives.

[TheStateChief]

46. Sorry

But I got my knuckles cracked earlier this week for posting more than four paragraphs. I posted the first four and then mentioned that the article referenced another poll that showed Kerry ahead. The article also mentions that the poll results from that poll were older. It doesn't mention the Rasmussen poll.

I have posted repeatedly that Kerry wasn't my first choice, but I have also posted repeatedly (including on threads that others started that questioned Kerry). I have been consistent that anyone who thinks Kerry isn't different from Bush or doesn't think that Kerry deserves support should focus on the issues where there are MAJOR differences (judges, taxes, education).

I will try to do a better job of getting polls that are bad for Bush (which I HAVE posted in the past) before everyone else. But I also think that it is important for us to see ALL the information - good or bad. I don't visit DU just to have my POV reinforced. I know some probably do. But I'm not afraid of confronting negative information and I don't understand why others would.

But I will take one of your points to heart XanthaS. I will make sure that I always post the headline as published. I know that you don't require this of others, but for you I will be more than happy to be the exception. :)

[West Coast Democrat]

26. Here's how the article goes...

"One Wisconsin poll says Bush leads, another says Kerry"
Doyle says we're right where we were in 2000

With the Bush-Cheney ticket about to pepper the state with campaign visits, two new polls offer very different pictures of the presidential race.

A statewide Badger Poll has President Bush widening his lead over Democrat John Kerry in the past month and ending a gradual slide in his popularity dating back to last fall.

A poll done by the St. Norbert College Survey Center, however, gives Kerry a small lead in hotly contested Wisconsin.

Although it's not uncommon for polls conducted on different days by different organizations to deviate, the Wisconsin polls aren't easy to reconcile.

more....

http://www.jsonline.com/news/state/apr04/226062.asp

31. Read the article! Badger poll had more Republicans

Noone here seems to have actually read the whole article, because it says that the St. Norbert poll had more Democrats and the Badger poll more Republicans. That seems to explain the difference. In other words, Wisconsin is pretty much where we were in 2000. I know, I live here.

[West Coast Democrat]

33. Yes, that's why I don't appreciate this guy's misleading headline

and misleading article snippets. He's not giving a well-rounded account of the article or the polls.

35. I agree, but others here don't seem to be reading it either

I seem to be the only one pointing out the difference in party identificiation between the two polls. Incidentally, www.dcpoliticalreport.com had moved Wisconsin into a red state based on the Badger poll, even though the following three polls listed in April for Wisconsin show a Kerry lead. Go figure.

[Cocoa]

14. Bush is toast in Wisconsin

lots of war casualties there, plus Wisconsin is the land of Sally "whistle-ass" Baron.

[Darkamber]

15. Conflicting polls in Wisc.

However, the odds are in favor of Kerry when looking at the three polls.

Badger Poll
BUSH 50%
KERRY 38%
511 voting-age adults, taken April 20-28 by the University of Wisconsin Survey Center

St. Norbert College and Wisconsin Public Radio poll
KERRY 46%
BUSH 40%
402 voting-age adults taken April 14-21

Add to this:

Rasmussen Reports Poll
KERRY 50%
BUSH 42%
The telephone survey of 500 Likely Voters in Wisconsin was conducted by Rasmussen Reports April 28, 2004. The margin of sampling error for the full sample is +/- 4.5 percentage points, with a 95% level of confidence.

Badger poll must have hit a Repud stronghold when they took the poll. The other two polls show a different picture.

[West Coast Democrat]

18. Some DU posters scan the internet daily for negative Kerry polls

I'm not sure why.

[Dinger]

28. That St. Norbert Poll Is

in a repiglican area of Wisconsin, the faux (Fox) valley.

-Dinger, A Wisconsinite

[Mattforclark]

16. Who knows what's going on in Wisconsin...

Yesterday there were two wisconsin polls out, 1 showing Kerry up by 7, the other showing Kerry up by 8.

So I'll just assume that all the polls are wrong, and it is close.

[ibegurpard]

22. I don't believe this

12 point lead for Bush? In a state that went narrowly for Gore? Considering everything that's getting out there about Bush? Nah. Narrow lead, maybe but a 12 point lead I can't buy.

[West Coast Democrat]

23. From the link State Chief uses for his source....

http://www.jsonline.com/news/state/apr04/226062.asp

The headline of the article is: "One Wisconsin poll says Bush leads, another says Kerry" Yet Chief doesn't mention that.

[Dinger]

27. OtherPolls Show Kerry Ahead In Wisconsin

http://www.dcpoliticalreport.com/2004/WIPoll.htm

That Badger poll is a freeped poll.

37. Ding! Ding! Ding! Someone here gets it

It mentions in the article that the Badger poll had more Republicans than Dems while the St. Norbert poll was the other way around. I was beginning to think I was the only one who read the thing to see that judging by the other comments in this thread.

[mobuto]

29. Voting age adults?

Sorry, 500 voting age adults may be for Bush, but their opinion is really irrelevent if they're not only unlikely to vote, but aren't even registered.

[MallRat]

30. UW: Bush by 12? Rasmussen: Kerry by 8?

Someone's methodology is f'd up.

-MR

[mobuto]

32. Actually, both are f'd up

For entirely different reasons, Badger Poll and Rasmussen are largely worthless.

[ACK]

34. Wait a minute this is pure crack?!?

Two other recent polls showed Kerry ahead one by double digits and one by 8 points?

What is up?

Very confused.

+

36. Everyone, read the article-Badger poll had more Republicans than Dems

and the St. Norbert poll with Kerry in the lead had more Dems than Republicans. There is the difference. I live here, and it's probably fair to say we're still pretty much tied like we were in 2000.

[59millionmorons]

38. Bingo-you beat me to that nugget

Another possible factor in the different outcomes is that the St. Norbert sample group contained more Democrats than Republicans, while the pool of people surveyed in the Badger Poll contained more Republicans than Democrats.

http://www.jsonline.com/news/state/apr04/226062.asp

[farmbo]

39. Poll: "Do you support the GreenBay Packers and Bush... or Kerry?

:crazy:

[MessiahRp]

40. LOL

I can so see that up here...

Yeah the Badger Poll seems way off, IMO. But if I recall correctly they were pretty much off in the primaries as well. The state breaks down like this: Madison, Milwaukee major Dem strongholds... FDL, rural areas are Republican, and the Fox Valley (Oshkosh, Appleton, Green Bay) are all in play. At least from what I've seen. Oshkosh and Appleton trend Dem slightly, and GB trends Republican...

Pretty even except that when you get the poor urban votes out in Milwaukee, Racine, Kenosha... there's a monster majority of Dems overall in the state. The question is, can you get them all out?

Rp

[NicRic]

41. If true ,sad statement on voters !

I just cannot understand how any American being honest to themselves and fellow Americans can claim that this pResident is doing anything except the worst possible job ,of running this country. He is doing a bang up job of running it into the ground ,or should I say has done a bang up job of running our beloved country into the ground .How some can be so blind to the truth about this miserable failure is beyond me . If he wins reelection ,all I can do is feel sorry for the voting public for being so gulible, and so easily propagandized.I would hope if there was a Dem president this bad , I would be honest enough to myself and others to admit it ?

[TruthIsAll]

42. Bogus Poll! Wisconsin is a progressive Dem state. Period.

There is NO WAY Bush will win.

[dsc]

44. Gore won by an eyelash in 2000

and Feingold only won reelection on Tammy Baldwin's coattails. They have had a Republican governor for most of the last decade. I wouldn't go off the deepend on the assurance scale if Nader makes that ballot.

[sandnsea]

43. Only Badger shows this

The other Wisconsin polls all have Kerry in the lead. I think Badger is either screwy or calling an area in the state that is Republican.

[IndianaGreen]

45. I don't believe many of these polls. Who are they polling and how?

Even the people I know that voted for Bush four years ago are voting Democratic this year because they are fed up and disappointed with Bush.

I don't believe many of these polls. Who are they polling and how?

If someone were to say that Bush leads Kerry is Georgia, or even in Indiana (it is very close here), I would find it more credible than a Bush lead in Wisconsin or Minnesota.